Rugby Championship Week 5 Preview
South Africa vs Australia
1:05am Sunday 30 September 2018
Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium
It has felt like a long two weeks since the Wallabies’ meek capitulation to Argentina on the Gold Coast, a fortnight filled with controversies and post mortems. Thankfully, the chance to atone has arrived, although an away game to the South Africans is a daunting way to try to get your confidence back. There has been plenty of soul searching in Australian rugby of late, with question marks over everyone from top to bottom. Michael Cheika appears to be safe until the World Cup, quite possibly because there don’t appear to be any serious options, but it is fair to say the Australian public is at the end of its tether with this team. A drop to seventh in the world rankings, while unacceptable, does reflect the position of the game in this country in comparison to others, but the Wallabies’ job has always been to punch above their weight against countries who see rugby as their number one football code. The disgraceful altercation after the match on the Gold Coast was the manifestation of the frustration fans are feeling right now, and Cheika must find a way to turn that around this year.
Currently sitting at the bottom of the Rugby Championship ladder, the Wallabies have 2 games left to salvage something from a disastrous season. They haven’t tasted victory in South Africa since 2012, though least year’s spirited draw showed that there is no reason to be intimated by the venue. The Springboks, for their part, are coming off a magnificent victory over the All Blacks in New Zealand, and will be brimming with confidence after their inspiring display. The Wallabies have managed to hustle the Kiwis in small doses over the past 18 months, but the South Africans were able to maintain the intensity for the entire 80 minutes, and held on for a deserved triumph. Their attack was electrifying at time, their defence resolute, with few obvious weaknesses for the Australians to target.
The form line of the Aussies could not be more different. Despite a couple of moments of brilliance against the Argentines, their performance was muddling in the most part. The lineout was woeful, ball handling embarrassing, and composure under pressure was nowhere to be seen when the game was there to be won. Somehow, it feels like this team is going backwards, showing a lower level of skill to what we saw even a year ago. Traditional positional play has given way to players popping up all over the field, performing multiple roles, but the result is a level of confusion and uncertainty that taints everything they do. The approach isn’t likely to change in the short time, though, so the goal must be to simply improve each outing between now and the World Cup. Wallaby fans, at this point in time, will take that as a win.
Cheika has made a number of key changes to the Wallabies’ lineup, most notably the return of captain Michael Hooper from injury. His backrow partner Lukhan Tui is on a self-imposed exile, so Ned Hanigan wins the vacant blindside flanker spot, most probably due to his ability in the lineout. Adam Coleman also returns the starting team after the birth of his child, but the most notable change in the pack is the promotion of Taniela Tupou for his first test start. The Tongan Thor didn’t have the happiest night against Argentina, but he was outstanding the week before against the Springboks, and he has earnt this shot at tight head. If he commits himself well at scrum time, and makes an impact around the field, he could cement the spot for a very long time.
The backline is unchanged from a fortnight ago, meaning Kurtley Beale will again steer the ship from flyhalf with Matt Toomua outside him and Bernard Foley on the bench. Israel Folau’s last performance on the wing was outstanding, save for one play in the 82nd minute, so he stays on the flank with Dane Haylett-Petty at fullback.
The Springboks have been forced into a number of changes, most notably the loss of number 8 Warren Whiteley to a groin injury. A brand new centre combination was also required, with Andre Esterhuizen and Jesse Kriel combining in a new look midfield. Up front, Tendai Mtawarira returns at loose head to resume hostilities between the Beast and the Thor. That battle should be immense.
After the disappointment of a fortnight ago, the Wallabies simply must find some improvement against this strong Springboks side. The set piece is under huge pressure, particularly the lineout, and all eyes will be on Tatafu Polota-Nau when he steps up for his first throw. Three genuine targets, plus Hooper, should create enough variety for the hooker to hit, provided he can keep them straight. Out wide, Beale’s penchant for crabbing sideways has confused his teammates for two games in a row, so either he needs to straighten his running, or they need to offer him some straight running options. Toomua has looked solid since his return from England, and he needs to get into first receiver on multiple occasions to relive some pressure from Beale. Folau will again be given a licence to roam, something he made the most of against Argentina, but he needs to offer himself as a finisher as well as a ball carrier. Too often he is being asked to take crash balls in midfield, when his great strength is sitting on the end of the backline and finding the tryline. Marika Koroibete loves playing the South Africans, so expect him to find some work as well, while Haylett-Petty and Folau have a huge advantage in the air over the African back three, so we should see some high contestable kicks in the Springboks’ 22. There will be opportunities for the Wallabies throughout this game, only time will tell if they are good enough to take them.
Rugby Championship Best Bet
The South Africans are deserved favourites for this one, given recent form and the huge advantage that playing at home gets you in the Rugby Championship. 8.5 points start for the Aussies doesn’t feel like quite enough here, so South Africa minus the handicap at $1.94 is our best bet of the week.
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