Our best bet for Saturday's NRL Qualifying Final between the New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins is the Warriors to Win / Over 46.5 / Tabuai-Fidow to Score Same Game Multi at $6.75, with the Warriors on a six-match win streak and five of their last six games producing 46 or more points.
Saturday night in Auckland sees second play third, as the Warriors host the Dolphins for the first NRL Qualifying Final of 2026.
New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins
Both teams bring plenty of form into this clash, with the Warriors riding a six-match win streak and the Dolphins sitting one better at seven straight.
Each was a little shaky last week, as New Zealand scraped past the Sea Eagles thanks to a late Chanel Harris-Tavita field goal, while the Dolphins held out the Titans for a 24-20 victory.
Leg 1 - Warriors to Win
The Warriors have been the form team of the competition the past two months, and it's hard to see them dropping this one in front of a packed out crowd.
They've had defensive issues at times the last month, which the Dolphins' sharp attack will exploit. However, where they've lacked in defence they've made up for in attack of their own.
Expect them to give the Auckland faithful the opening final victory they're after on Saturday.
Leg 2 - Over 46.5 Points Total
Five of the Warriors' last six matches have seen 46 or more points scored, including each of their last four.
This comes off the back of New Zealand's relentless attack. We're talking scores of 31, 46, 45 and 40, combined with their momentary defensive lapses.
Given how potent the Dolphins are with the ball in hand, it's highly unlikely this unfolds as a low-scoring grind.
Leg 3 - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to Score
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Tabuai-Fidow thrives in big matches, as evidenced by his tries in each of this year's Origin matches.
He's central to the Dolphins' attack and has already scored 13 times this season, including a double last week.
Given how leaky the Warriors have been on defence, the Dolphins' fullback should find his way over at some stage.
Same Game Multi
Warriors to Win / Over 46.5 / Tabuai-Fidow to Score = $6.75
Value Bet
The last two meetings between these sides have been razor tight, with margins of two points in each match.
Despite the Warriors' home advantage and brilliant form, it's tough to see them running away with this one for the full 80 minutes. They've consistently taken their foot off the throat in recent matches, which should allow this one to finish 1-12 on Saturday.
