Round 8 Preview
We’re almost a third of the way through the 2021 season and now that the early teething portion of the season has come and gone, we get into the middle grind, highlighted by who can avoid injuries and who is putting their hand up for Origin selection. I’m more confident this week than the previous 2 rounds so let’s hope for some good results.
Canberra Raiders ($2.50) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.53)
Thursday 29th April 7:50PM, Canberra Stadium
The Rabbitohs make the trip down the Hume Highway to take on a Raiders side looking to avoid their fourth consecutive defeat. Having been on the most consistent sides in recent years, the Raiders let slip a 12 point lead last week, along with blowing a 21 point second half lead against the Warriors earlier in the season, with Ricky Stuart’s side looking a far cry from the one who lost in the preliminary final last year. The Rabbitohs almost suffered the same fate in round 7, trailing 24-10 at halftime, before Benji Marshall turned back the clock to orchestrate a 40-30 win and their sixth in a row. Damian Cook is clearly relishing the new law variations, leading the competition with 51 dummy half runs, 9 clear of the next closest. While South Sydney are still missing Latrell Mitchell due to suspension and Canberra Stadium is always a difficult place to win, the Rabbitohs will heap more misery onto the Raiders who will be close to slipping out of the top 8.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -4.5 $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.10) v Cronulla Sharks ($6.53)
Friday 30th April 6:00PM, AAMI Park
Not much more can be set about the Storm, seemingly getting better after their 2020 Premiership. The injection of Harry Grant into the team is almost like a video game cheat code, while halfback Jahrome Hughes is arguably the competition’s most improved player over the past 2 seasons. The Cronulla Sharks make the trip south to Melbourne to face the Storm, still with their tails, or fins, between their legs after becoming the first team to fall victim to the Bulldogs last week this season when losing by 6 points. An abysmal first half saw the Sharks trail 18-0 at halftime, and a potential embarrassment on the cards, and while they managed to fight back in the second half they would be left to rue their poor opening 40 minutes as they crashed to their fifth loss of the season. It was also a second defeat from as many matches for caretaker coach Josh Hannay and with many fans still upset about the treatment of previous coach John Morris, the play of the team is not doing anything to back up the decision of the club’s Board. Over the past few years, the Storm and Sharks have contested a number of notable matches, not least the 2016 grand final in which the Sharks won their first title in their 50th year in the competition with a closely contested 14-12 win but that’s a distant memory now and I fully expect the Storm to cover the line easily on Friday.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -17.5 $1.90
Brisbane Broncos ($3.70) v Gold Coast Titans ($1.28)
Friday 30th April 7:55PM, Suncorp Stadium
The talented Titans team are proving hard to catch from a betting point of view this year, having been shutout 36-0 against Manly 2 rounds ago, before taking the Rabbitohs to the final minutes when going down by 10 and could potentially drop out of the top 8 if they lose here and results go against them. Despite the second half capitulation last week when leading by 14, superstar David Fifita helped himself to another hat-trick of tries, proving his worth to the Titans in the process, and now he gets the chance to make another statement against his old club this Friday night, along with Tino Fa’asuamaleaui who returns from suspension. A week after threatening a major upset against the Penrith Panthers at home, for the Broncos it was a case of same old story as they wilted under the Darwin heat, losing to the Parramatta Eels by 46-6 at TIO Stadium last Friday night. The nightmare started for the Broncos with a knock-on at kick-off, setting the tone for a very dirty night for the men from Red Hill and heads have rolled with halves Tom Dearden and Brodie Croft dropped and replaced by Anthony Milford and Tyson Gamble who will play his first game of 2021. The Broncos however, have been stronger at home this year and bounce back after heavy defeats so backing them to cover the line this Friday.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos +12.5
Penrith Panthers ($1.17) v Manly Sea Eagles ($5.10)
Saturday 1st May, 3:00PM, Carrington Park
Has one player ever made more difference to a side than Tom Trbovejic for Manly since his return from injury. After being thumped by Penrith a month ago, the Sea Eagles have now won three on the trot, including their last 2 by a combined 70 points to remarkably move up to 11th on the ladder, something unthinkable in the first week of April. The Panthers however present a different level of opposition, and will look to continue their unbeaten run in Bathurst. The left side of Villami Kikau and Brian To’o dominated the previous contest, and much of Panthers momentum comes on the back of the metres from To’o early on in the set, having made a competition leading 1732 run metres, almost 200 ahead of perennial Dally M contender, and next closest Roger Tuivasa-Scheck. The Panthers have failed to cover the line in their previous two encounters against the Broncos and Knights, and I think the Sea Eagles will be able to make the game a close one to kick off the Saturday fixtures.
Recommended Bet: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles +14.5
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($6.50) v Parramatta Eels ($1.10)
Saturday 1st May 5:30PM, Stadium Australia
Canterbury got their long awaited win last round with a six-point victory over the Sharks, but they’re about to face a much tougher test against an Eels side that has rattled off two double-digit victories over the past 2 rounds and currently sit second on the ladder. Anything close to that kind of form will prove tough to stop for the Dogs, although Trent Barrett’s side should feel confident heading into this one after losing by only two points last time they met and have improved considerably over the past several rounds.On Parra’s front, the Eels are set to welcome Ryan Matterson back from his own concussion issues.From a betting perspective, the Dogs have been a decent play as the underdog against the Eels covering in six of their last nine games, along with only going down by a cumulative 8 points in their matches last year which does make the +19.5 lie look a very enticing bet for some, Nothing will come easy, but if the Bulldogs can force the Eels into mistakes like they did last week against Cronulla and reduce the run metres Clint Gutheron makes from fullback (A statistic he leads the league in), there’s a good chance they can cover the line.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs +19.5 $1.90
Newcastle Knights ($2.75) v Sydney Roosters ($1.45)
Saturday 1st May 7:35PM, McDonald Jones Stadium
The third match on Saturday sees the Sydney Roosters make the trip up the F3 to face the Newcastle Knights, who despite being ravaged by injury appear to be punching well above their weight. The Chooks retained the Anzac Day Cup with a strong win over the Dragons last Sunday, masterminded by a man-of-the-match performance from Sam Walker who was playing only his fourth game but has taken to the NRL like a duck to water. Walker has adjusted well into the Roosters’ line-up after being thrown into the hot seat following the season-ending injury suffered by Luke Keary in Round 3, but is also helped by the fabulous play of Angus Chrichton on the edge, who seems to fly under the radar with his performances. The win also came despite acting captain James Tedesco sitting out the second half after copping a high shot from Dragons winger Jordan Pereira and will have to pass concussion protocols to play on Saturday. On the other hand, the Knights may be struggling with injuries to key players but otherwise did well to keep the Panthers at arm’s length for most of their clash at BlueBet Stadium last Thursday night, until the class of Ivan Cleary’s men was too much too handle. They will need more than just Kalyn Ponga to fire if they are to cause an upset against the Chooks on Saturday night, and I just cannot see that happening with the line looking like one of the best bets this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -6.5 $2.00
New Zealand Warriors ($1.60) v North Queensland Cowboys ($2.35)
Sunday 2nd May, 2:00PM, Central Coast Stadium
Buoyed by three straight wins after a poor start to the season, it seems surprising the Cowboys could suddenly square their season ledger at 4-4 when they travel to the Central Coast to face the New Zealand Warriors at ‘home’ in the first of 2 Sunday afternoon clashes this round. Last week the Cowboys had to come from behind to edge out the Canberra Raiders 26-24 at home with a Valentine Holmes penalty goal ten minutes from time to give the Cowboys their third straight win and some greater expectations of what 2021 might bring. Next in the firing line are the New Zealand Warriors, who crashed to a disappointing 42-20 loss to the Melbourne Storm in the annual Anzac Night clash at AAMI Park last Sunday. However, they are buoyed by the returns of Tohu Harris, David Fusitu’a and Adam Pompey, who are all important cogs in the kiwis sides machine. A major subplot is that Todd Payten will coach against the club he led on a caretaker basis last year, after the Warriors gave Stephen Kearney his marching orders after Round 6 last season. He had the chance to assume the job full-time but decided to pursue the Cowboys’ role, with a view of taking them back into the finals for the first time since their miraculous run to the 2017 grand final. While the Cowboys will start favourites on Sunday, the Warriors will have reason to believe they can spring an upset of sorts, as they did beat they were victorious 37-26 at the same stadium in the corresponding match last year. With the Cowboys making the most errors in the comp this season I think the Warriors will be able to come away with a victory.
Recommended Bet: New Zealand Warriors $1.60
St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.30) v Wests Tigers ($3.50)
Sunday 2nd May, 4:05PM, WIN Stadium
The Dragons have come crashing back to earth with a pair of losses to the Warriors and Roosters in successive weeks to have the just outside of many times chasing the lower spots in the top 8, but Anthony Griffin’s side does have a perfect opportunity to get back to business on Sunday with a winnable game against the Tigers. Wests looked destined for another upset last week over Manly before things went haywire right before half-time in a three-try assault in the space of 10 minutes. Now, Michael Maguire is forced to go back to the drawing board as he looks to come up with an answer to St George’s dominant forward line. Believe it or not, the Tigers have won their last two meetings over St George by double digits, but this is obviously a different Dragons outfit which finished with only 7 wins in 2020 St George could be helped out on the injury front this week with Ben Hunt a chance to play, while Josh Kerr will take his place in the second row after being scratched on ANZAC Day. The Dragons and Tigers both rank top five in missed tackles this year, while both clubs also allowed more than 30 points last week so expect a high scoring contest and a Dragons victory.
Recommended Bet: St George Illawarra Dragons 1-12 $2.90
