Round 7 Preview
While many of the unfancied teams last round performed above expectations, it made for a tough weekend for the recommended bets with only one successful. Let’s hope for a turnaround in fortune’s heading into round 7.
Penrith Panthers ($1.11) v Newcastle Knights ($6.50)
Thursday 22nd April 7:50PM, Bluebet Stadium
The Panthers continued their unbeaten start to the season, fending off a gallant Broncos outfit on the back of strong second half performances by halves Nathan Cleary and Jerome Luai. After two slow starts in consecutive weeks, Ivan Cleary will no doubt be imploring his team to be focused from the kick off as one of these slow starts will ultimately prove a mountain too big too climb. The Knights were able to have a reversal in fortunes in Round 6 as they defeated the Sharks 26-22 in a Friday night thriller. Kalyn Ponga was outstanding in the win, and will be peaking in confidence in his third game back from injury and will be vital to spark the attack against a Panthers outfit that has only conceded 38 points in 2021. Newcastle however, have been impossible to catch from a betting perspective having severely mixed their form in the first 6 rounds so I am backing them to cover the line here, but with minimal confidence.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights +16.5 ($1.90)
Gold Coast Titans ($2.80) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.43)
Friday 23rd April 6:00PM, Cbus Super Stadium
One of the form teams in the comp, the Rabbitohs are going for six straight on Friday when they face the Titans on the Gold Coast, however 3 of those wins have come against lowly opposition in the form of the Bulldogs, Broncos and Tigers. The suspension to Latrell Mitchell has forced a reshuffle to the South Sydney backline, with Alex Johnston moving to full back while Jaxson Paulo to start on the left wing, potentially affecting the combination which has accounted for over 60% of their tries this year, much of which is led by the aforementioned Mitchell, who leads the league with 10 try assists. The Titans on the other hand, put in an absolutely abysmal performance in Mudgee against the struggling Sea Eagles with the Silvertails completing a shutout in a 36-0 win. You would expect the Titans to bounce back with a performance much better than that, however they have not beat the Rabbitohs since 2017 and as such, I am backing South Sydney to win in a close one.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12 ($2.90)
Parramatta Eels ($1.20) v Brisbane Broncos ($4.50)
Friday 23rd April 8:05PM, TIO Stadium
The Eels and Broncos meet for the second time this season after an opening round thriller, with Darwin getting set to host an NRL fixture again after missing out last year due to the pandemic. There have been some strong signs of improvement for the Broncos under Kevin Walters, but Brisbane have not won a game on the away from home since Round 1 last year, and while the game is played at a neutral venue, and away from Bankwest where the Eels can be so dangerous. On the injury front, the Broncos could potentially see Jesse Arthars and Herbie Farnworth back into the side, while the Eels will also welcome back three of their key playmakers in Ryan Matterson, Dylan Brown and Waqa Blake. The Eels have struggled to string together two consistent halves dating back to last season although the Broncos have lost their last 5 road games by double digits, I’m buoyed by their improvements last week against Penrith and convinced they will challenge the Eels this week.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos +12.5 ($1.80)
Cronulla Sharks ($1.15) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs ($5.50)
Saturday 24th April 5:30PM, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The Sharks will be hungry to get back to into the winners circle this week after suffering a heartbreaking loss against the Knights in Newcastle. Despite giving up a last-second try to Kalyn Ponga, there was a lot to like about Cronulla’s gutsy performance in the second half after trailing by two tries heading into the sheds, a contrast to their round 5 match up against the Roosters where they led comfortable at half time before ultimately going down by a try. In great news for the Sharks, Shaun Johnson is set to make his return from injury off the bench, and while a minutes restriction will be in play, anytime a former Golden Boot winner is on the field, it can only make you better. Canterbury, meanwhile, is still searching for its first win of the season after losing by 12 to the Cowboys last week in Townsville. On the plus side, the Dogs seem to have figured out their attack in recent rounds after failing to score a single point in three consecutive matches earlier in the season, but this is still a very difficult assignment going up against a Sharks side that has only lost once against the Bulldogs since 2016. Given the Dogs are losing by an average margin of 25 points, the Sharks to secure a large win looks a good bet this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 13+ ($1.62)
North Queensland Cowboys ($3.65) v Canberra Raiders ($1.28)
Saturday 24th April, 7:35PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
After being seen as pre-season lock, the Raiders have fallen out of the eight following back-to-back losses to the Panthers and Eels and although the Cowboys are a step down in calibre side, any time teams travel to Townsville, they will need to be at their best to secure the 2 points. Remaining at home for the second week in a row, the Cowboys will be looking to build on the momentum of last week’s big win over the Bulldogs as they now shoot for three in a row.
While Jason Taumalolo still looks a week or two away from returning, Todd Payten can rest a little easier knowing the Raiders head to North Queensland with a significant number on injury concerns. Josh Hodgson and Bailey Simonssen are both set to miss the game with th he loss of both players couldn’t have come at a worse time for head coach Ricky Stuart with both players vital pieces in an attack which has struggled to score points in a side averaging less than 20 points per game. With all that in mind, the Cowboys do look an enticing bet as the underdog at the line in front of the North Queensland faithful.
Recommended Bet: North QUeensland Cowboys +9.5 ($1.90)
Wests Tigers ($2.55) v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.51)
Sunday 25th April, 1:45PM, Bankwest Stadium
An intriguing battle awaits at Bankwest on Sunday as Manly looks to keep the ball rolling against the Tigers. As expected, the inclusion of Tom Trbojevic made a world of difference last week in the 36-0 drubbing over the Titans, and his inclusion in the lineup coincided with the return to form for halves Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans. Although they’ve lost three straight since winning in Newcastle just on a month ago, the Tigers have still managed to string together a decent periods of football, clawing back into contention against the Tigers after being down by 20 at the half as well as last week’s agonising overtime loss to Souths. To add further spice to this game, the Tigers also won a thriller over Manly when these two sides met back in September. Aside from the score, Manly did a fantastic job of controlling possession in the second half last week against the Titans, while they also did well to force 14 errors.
Manly should win this, but overall, this is still a game between two sides that rank Top 5 in points allowed and is tougher to get a gauge on the margin so I’m playing it a bit safer and backing Manly to win.
Recommended Bet: Manly ($1.51)
Sydney Roosters ($1.48) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($2.65)
Sunday 25th April, 4:05PM, Sydney Cricket Ground
In what shapes as one of the game’s of the round, the traditional Anzac Day clash will no doubt be played in front a packed crowd at the historic SCG. Aside from the fact both the Roosters and St George are looking to bounce-back from respective losses, this is also a critical game between fifth and sixth on the ladder. The Roosters have done well to hang on the fringe of the top four despite a slew of recent injuries, but it was clear last week that the tri-colours were missing their attacking flair, in particular Luke Keary, during their 20-4 loss to the Storm. The Dragons, meanwhile, received a reality check as their four-game winning streak was snapped at the hands of the Warriors. Recent history tells us that the Roosters have enjoyed the better part of this matchup over the last three years but with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves joining Luke Keary on the sidelines with a shoulder injury a worrying sign for Trent Robinson’s men as Hargreaves has been vital in defence for the Roosters in recent weeks. While the line has been set at -5.5 for the Roosters, this game will be a tight one and while the tricolours will come out on top, it will be a tight contest.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 ($3.10)
Melbourne Storm ($1.11) v New Zealand Warriors ($6.50)
Sunday 25th April, 6:15PM, AAMI Park
In what has become another fantastic ANZAC Day match up over recent years, sees the Storm host the Warriors in Melbourne to close out round 7. The Storm are heavy favourites for this contest on the back of their 20-4 victory and are looking an almost better side than the one that was victorious in the disrupted 2020 season. In what is not typical of a Warriors side, is a league leading 83% set completion, which gives supporters confidence they may be able to shake the inconsistent term which has plagued them throughout their time in the competition. Last weekend’s win against the high flying Dragons was impressive but with Peta Hiku and Adam Pompey joining Adin Fonua-Blake on the sidelines, they may struggle against a Melbourne defence allowing just 12 points per game, including holding the Roosters to only a singular try last round. The inclusion of Harry Grant back into the Storm outfit has been seamless, and the spine of Grant, Munster, Hughes, Papenhuyzen and Brandon Smith when he slots into lock is exciting for everyone but the opposition. I can’t see the Warriors getting close to the Storm here in what should be a very comfortable win for Craig Bellamy’s men.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -16.5 ($1.90)
