NRL Round 7 Preview
With one month now past since the restart of the 2020 season we are starting to see a clear divide between the contenders and pretenders for this year. Last week solidified this with a number of teams putting in convincing performances that cemented them in the top 8 whilst a string of poor performances has question marks raising over a number of teams too. Add to this the fact that the first coach has been sacked for the year and we are coming into an interesting period over the next few weeks. Read on as we preview round 7 and cast our eye over a couple of grudge matches.
Penrith Panthers ($1.74) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.10)
Thursday, 25th June 7:50pm, Netstrata Jubilee Oval
Round 7 kicks off with a vastly important match for both teams as the Penrith Panthers take on the South Sydney Rabbitohs with both teams currently 3rd and 8th on the ladder, respectively. The Panthers produced arguably the upset of the round last week as they outclassed the Storm in a 21-14 victory largely thanks to a clinical kicking game from Nathan Cleary as well as their courage to spread the ball and target the Storm's shaky edge defence. This victory was completely against the odds as the Storm had won 18 of their last 20 encounters and if the Panthers are to win this week then they will have to break another streak of having not won back to back wins against the Rabbitohs for over 10 years. For Souths they have started to play with much more confidence since the return of Cody Walker and on the back of some Latrell Mitchell brilliance they see themselves on a 2 game winning streak after their 40-12 demolition of the Warriors. On the back of both teams convincing performances in previous weeks there have been minimal changes to both sides. For the Rabbitohs, their only change has been the return of James Roberts on the interchange, who takes the place of injured forward Tom Amone. On the other hand the Panthers have stuck strong with the same 17 from last week's victory as they look to continue their march towards a top 4 spot. In recent history these two teams have been relatively even with both teams winning 3 a piece in their last 6 matches. During these 6 matches the winning margin has been 4 points or less on 5 of those times and we are leaning towards another tight one between the two sides this time round. When you add the Panthers far superior defensive record in averaging just 14 points per game in comparison to the Rabbitohs 19 points to the fact that the Rabbitohs 3 wins have come against 11th, 13th & 16th then we are leaning towards the Panthers, albeit in a tight contest.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers 1-12 $3.05
Melbourne Storm ($1.17) vs New Zealand Warriors ($5.15)
Friday, 26th June 6:00pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Friday’s first game sees the Melbourne Storm take on the New Zealand Warriors at the unusual venue of Netstrata Jubilee Stadium as both teams come off contrasting losses in their previous match. For the Storm they were shocked by a Panthers side who exploited their weakened edge defence as they went down by 7 points after putting in arguably their performance of the season the previous week. This will largely disappoint coach Craig Bellamy as his team have struggled for consistency and he will be hoping that they can take advantage of their 8 match winning streak against the Warriors. This streak will be something that will haunt the Warriors who face the task of taking on the Storm after losing coach Stephen Kearney, with his assistant Todd Payten stepping up into the caretaker role. This decision was on the back of the Warriors 40-12 loss to the Rabbitohs, which was highlighted by them missing 41 tackles in what proved the final straw for Kearney’s job at the inconsistent Warriors. This week both sides have made some welcome changes thanks to players returning from injury. The Storm will welcome back halfback Jahrome Hughes who takes the place of Ryley Jacks as well as Josh Addo-Carr returning on the wing, after the birth of his child, in place of Marion Seve. For the Warriors they will be without suspended hooker Wayde Egan who is replaced by Karl Lawton whilst Ken Maumalo returns on the wing and Chanel Harris-Tavita & Isaiah Papali’i join the bench. Despite the number of changes the Warriors have made it’s hard to see them turning things around in such a short period of time and in terms of introductions to NRL coaching it doesn’t get much harder than Todd Payten’s first up assignment. Add to the fact that in 4 of the last 5 times that the Storm have lost in the regular season they have bounced back to win by 13+ then we are quite confident that the Storm will do just that this time round and should have no problem in doing so with the return of Hughes & Addo-Carr.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 13+ $1.71
Sydney Roosters ($1.11) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($6.55)
Friday, 26th June 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
The first of four local rivalries sees the Sydney Roosters take on the St. George Illawarra Dragons at Bankwest Stadium in a Sydney derby, which is formerly played on Anzac Day. Unfortunately with no footy being played in April the clash was postponed but there’s just as much reason to be excited with both teams coming off multiple game win streaks. For the Dragons their season was on the rocks after losing their opening four games but with a couple of positional changes they look a rejuvenated team after wins against the Sharks & the Warriors. On the other hand the Roosters are without a doubt the form team of the competition after four wins in a row. On the way to their four wins they have conceded just 28 points and are coming off a 14 point win against the previously undefeated Parramatta Eels. If the Dragons are to get anything out of this clash then they will be hoping to capitalise on some tired legs for the Roosters as they play their 3rd game in just 11 days but with the Roosters holding the last 3 wins against the Dragons they will be full of confidence. This week sees the Roosters make a couple of changes as they look to keep fresh legs with Sam Verrils and Lindsay Collins joining the bench in place of Mitch Aubusson and Sitili Tupouniua. For the Dragons they have brought promising youngster Jason Saab onto the wing for the suspended Jordan Pereira whilst James Graham has departed to the UK Super League, forcing Blake Lawrie to start at prop, Josh Kerr to revert to the bench and Jackson Ford to come into the lock spot. It’s hard to see the Dragons getting anything out of this game and the market appears to tell the same tale at the moment with the Roosters being heavily backed in every department. One area that has stayed relatively reasonable is the total points market. With the Roosters currently holding the best defence in the comp, the Dragons averaging under 16 points per game and the Roosters playing on a short turnaround we are predicting this to be a low scoring but convincing win for the men from the Eastern Suburbs. Add to the fact that 3 of the last 5 meetings between the two sides have gone under this week's total points line then we’re happy to play that as it looks like a little bit of value in a fairly skewed market.
Recommended Bet: Under 42.5 Total Points $1.88
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.90) vs Newcastle Knights ($1.41)
Saturday, 27th June 3:00pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Two teams who put in completely different performances last week in the North Queensland Cowboys & the Newcastle Knights meet in Townsville for Saturday’s first game. On one end of the spectrum last week we saw the Cowboys put in arguably their worst performance of the season as they let the Tigers get out to a 34-0 lead before pegging it back to 36-20 at full time, in what was a consolation effort in the second half. This game saw the Tigers highlight a number of defensive frailties for the men from North as they simply spreaded the ball around and exposed a number of holes in a defensive line that lacked commitment and line speed. Contrastingly, the Knights bounced back from their first loss of the season to down the Broncos 27 points to 6 thanks to a commanding performance from their forwards. On the back of their forwards running for over 2000m the Knights backs were able to control possession and wear down a tired Brisbane side. This week sees both teams make one change each. The Knights will have to make do without young strike centre Bradman Best who is suspended due to a Covid-19 protocol breach as he is replaced by ex-Cowboy Enari Tuala. For the Cowboys they have stuck strong with the same starting 13 from last week as coach Paul Green looks to give them one more chance but has brought Reuben Cotter onto the bench in place of Corey Jensen. In recent history this contest has been dominated by the Cowboys as they have won 5 of the last 6 but, most importantly, the Knights won their last meeting by a convincing 36 points in round 22 of last year. It’s hard to lean towards the Cowboys here with any confidence after last week's effort and like we said last week with the Knights having won all of their matches this year by convincing margins, their lowest winning margin has been 16 points, then we are happy to take the Knights with the line again.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -6.5 $2.00
Brisbane Broncos ($1.37) vs Gold Coast Titans ($3.10)
Saturday, 27th June 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium
If someone had told me that the Brisbane Broncos & Gold Coast Titans clash could be a largely important fixture for who gets the dreaded wooden spoon this year then I would’ve laughed at them a few months ago. Somehow this is the situation that faces both sides as the Broncos have lost their last 4 and have slipped down to 14th on the ladder whilst the Titans are just 2 points behind them after winning only one game all season. The Broncos have been one of the disappointments of 2020 as their defence has leaked just under 30 points per game and there are huge question marks over the mindset of the team as experienced captain Alex Glenn has been vocal about the efforts of his teammates so far. Similarly, the Titans have leaked just over 30 points per game and are struggling to find the right balance in attack as they currently have the worst attack in the league, averaging just 11 points. To make matters worse the Titans have a couple of injury concerns from their 20-8 loss to the Dragons with Young Tonumaipea being replaced in the centres by Dale Copley, Mitch Rein coming into hooker for Erin Clark and Sam Lisone, Keegan Hipgrave & Jarrod Wallace all returning for Bryce Cartwright and Jaimin Joliffe. Similarly, the Broncos have been forced into a host of changes as Pat Carrigan & Tom Flegler are suspended, Corey Paix is injured and Jamayne Isaako is dropped to the bench. In their spots comes Joe Ofahengaue in the starting pack, Jamil Hopoate & Rhys Kennedy on the bench and youngster Fanitesi Niu debuts at fullback. With the host of changes that both sides are making & the below average form of both teams it’s hard to get a read on either side coming into this one. To make matters harder is the fact both teams have 2 wins a piece in their last 4 matches against each other, although the Titans have won the last 2 at Suncorp. Despite this, we’re leaning towards the Broncos in this one solely on the basis of the potential that their team has. They showed in the first two rounds that they can play good footy and it might just take a senior player like Glenn calling them out on their efforts to get them going so we’re predicting them to cover the line against the Titans, as they have in their last 3 victories against them.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos -7.5 Line $1.85
Parramatta Eels ($1.64) vs Canberra Raiders ($2.25)
Saturday, 27th June 7:35pm, Bankwest Stadium
Arguably the game of the round sees the first placed Parramatta Eels take on the fifth placed Canberra Raiders with both teams coming off losses in round 6. For the Eels they suffered their first loss of 2020 as they went down 24-10 to last year's premiership winners the Sydney Roosters. As a result this week they will have all eyes on them as they look to bounce back against the team the Roosters beat in last year's grand final, the Canberra Raiders, who will also have their top 4 aspirations put to test after slipping to just 1 win from their previous 3 games. During this period the Raiders have uncharacteristically averaged just under 13 points per game and if they are to fancy their chances of a victory this week then they will have to score a lot more points and do so against the competition's second best defence. Surprisingly, Raiders coach Ricky Stuart has kept faith to the same 17 from last week’s loss as he looks to earn either his 200th win or 200th loss as coach this week, pending on this week's result. For the Eels Brad Takairangi comes onto the bench for Peni Terepo whilst they will be without one of their middle enforcers in Nathan Brown who is suspended for 2 weeks. In recent times the Raiders have owned this contest by winning 5 of the last 6 matches and with the Eels missing Brown we are leaning towards them again in what should be another close contest. For a little bit more value we are looking towards the Raiders winning by 1-12 on the basis that both teams are averaging 12 points or less conceded per game and have seen 3 of their last 5 encounters being decided by this margin.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $3.25
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.64) vs Cronulla Sharks ($2.25)
Sunday, 28th June 4:05pm, Central Coast Stadium
The battle of the beaches is brought to us with the first game of Sunday as the Cronulla Sharks take on the Manly Sea Eagles at the unfamiliar area of Central Coast Stadium. Both teams are coming off close but confident wins last Sunday and the Sea Eagles will be looking to make it 3 in a row for the first time this year whilst the Sharks will be looking for back to back wins for the first time this year too. For the Sea Eagles last week they were mightily impressive in their 14-6 victory over the Raiders as they overcame a host of injuries to complete at 90% and completely shut out last year's grand finalists. On the other hand the Sharks just scraped past the 15th placed Bulldogs by 2 points thanks to a hattrick of tries to winger Sione Katoa. If the Sharks are to win this week they will need a similar performance from Katoa as they look to overcome one of the worst records that they have against any team in the competition. Of the last 12 games that they have played against the Sea Eagles they have managed just 1 win as the Sea Eagles well and truly hold bragging rights in their beaches rivalry. This week sees the Sharks make only one change too with Andrew Fifita moving off the bench and into the starting place as Braden Hamlin-Uele reverts to the bench. On the other hand the Sea Eagles have been forced into a host of changes with Brendan Elliot moving into fullback in place of the injured Tom Trbojevic, Lachlan Croker into the halves in place of Dylan Walker whilst Jorge Taufua and Martin Taupau return from injury on the wing and front row, respectively. Despite the injuries to the Sea Eagles it’s hard to look past them when they have a record like they do against the Sharks. Add to the fact that the Sharks have only beaten teams in the bottom eight this year then we are confident that the Sea Eagles can take this one out. With Manly winning their last 3 encounters with the Sharks by 12 points or less then we will look to a similar result come Sunday and take them by 1-12.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles 1-12 $2.85
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.75) vs Wests Tigers ($1.46)
Sunday, 28th June 6:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
The final game of the round sees a Western Sydney derby between the Canterbury Bulldogs and the Wests Tigers at Bankwest Stadium. The Tigers will be hoping to buck a 3 game losing streak against the Bulldogs and will be confident after a 36-20 victory against the Cowboys last week. In this victory they led the Cowboys 34-0 at half time after some scintillating play from hooker Harry Grant and coach Michael Maguire will be hoping for more of the same but in an 80 minute performance this week. For the Bulldogs they are coming off their second consecutive loss after going down 20-18 against the Sharks in a match where they had their fair share of chances but couldn’t capitalise on them. This week sees the Bulldogs lose Christian Crichton to suspension as he is replaced by Kerrod Holland in the centres, with Jack Cogger joining the interchange and Nick Meaney & Aiden Tolman join the extended bench as they look to return from injury and Covid-19 protocol suspensions. Similarly, the Tigers have been forced into a couple of changes as Robert Jennings, Zane Musgrove and Alex Twal are all out injured and are replaced by Tommy Talau, Oliver Clark and Matt Eisenhuth, with Elijah Taylor joining the bench. With these injuries for the Tigers in mind as well as the Bulldogs 3 game winning streak against them then we are predicting a close game that could go either way. For this reason and with the Tigers being installed as minor favourites in the market then we are leaning towards the Bulldogs with the line to finish the round. The Bulldogs managed to keep it close last week and with their last loss against the Tigers being less than this week's line as well as the aforementioned streak against them then we’re confident in another strong showing from them come Sunday.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs +4.5 $1.85
