NRL Round 6 Preview
Round 5 saw the Parramatta Eels remain as the only undefeated team in the competition but that mantle will be put to the ultimate test this week as they take on the defending premiers, the Sydney Roosters, in what is one of the three clashes that will see top 8 teams play each other. Read on as we preview the rounds matchups and try to find a few winners after what was a tough week last week with two 0.5 losses on the line.
Newcastle Knights ($1.44) vs Brisbane Broncos ($2.80)
Thursday, 18th June 7:50pm, Central Coast Stadium
The first game of the round sees another Thursday night clash featuring the Brisbane Broncos as they take on the Newcastle Knights, who are coming off their first loss in season 2020. This loss, despite being against the Melbourne Storm, will be disappointing for the novocastrians as they would have been full of confidence after beating last year's grand finalists in the Raiders the week before. Unfortunately for them they made double the errors than the Storm as Melbourne’s experienced showed. Similarly, experience was the defining factor for the Broncos last week too as they let an 18-0 lead slip to go down 20-18 to the Sea Eagles as they struggled to maintain possession in the second half and couldn’t manage a single point. This loss was the clubs 3rd loss in a row and they will be up against it again as the Knights can take a lot of confidence from their last two victories over the Broncos in the previous two seasons. For the Broncos this week they will be without electric centre Kotoni Staggs who is out due to a hamstring injury but they will welcome back Alex Glenn and Tevita Pangai Jr in the second row to add some much needed experience and firepower upfront. As a result of these two returning, Corey Oates’ short lived back row experiment is over as he moves back to the wing with Herbie Farnworth moving into the centres, Joe Ofahengaue back to the bench, Rhys Kennedy is out of the 17 and new signing Isaac Luke lingers as 18th man. In similar fashion the Knights welcome back club stalwart Lachlan Fitzgibbon into the back row with Aiden Guerra moving to the bench and Brodie Jones out of the side. With the Knights winning the last two meetings between the side and currently boasting the 4th best attack in the competition in comparison to the Broncos 13th best attack we are leaning towards a Knights victory in this one. It may not be by as much as some are predicting, thanks to the return of Pangai-Junior & Glenn but we are confident in them covering this week's line, a feat they have done in all of their victories this season.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -6.5 $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.40) vs New Zealand Warriors ($2.95)
Friday, 19th June 6:00pm, Bankwest Stadium
Two teams coming off wins and looking to climb their way into the top 8 in the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the New Zealand Warriors meet for the first of three games at Bankwest Stadium in round 6. Both teams will be full of confidence after last week's important victories as they both managed to score over 30 points for the first time this season in a sign that their attack is starting to reach its potential. For the Rabbitohs this was on the back of the return of Cody Walker and a stellar performance from Latrell Mitchell who put together 3 try assists, 11 tackle breaks and a try of his own as they ran out 32-12 winners against the Titans. On the other hand the Warriors showed their clinical completion by completing 87% of their sets on the back of their forwards dominating middle third in a 37-26 victory against the Cowboys. If the Warriors are to overcome the Bunnies this week then it will take another clinical performance as the Bunnies boast a 3 game winning streak against them, as well as winning 9 of their last 10 meetings. This stat will concern coach Stephen Kearney but he will be delighted that he has been able to name the same 17 from last week's victory after struggling for continuity so far this year. Similarly, Souths have named the same 17 from last week as James Roberts remains on the extended bench. On paper this looks to be a decent contest as both teams 2 wins for the season have come against teams who are either in the bottom four or have been struggling with injury. To me Souths look the better team with a higher ceiling than the Warriors and their record against the Warriors is one of the best they have in the comp so for that reason I’m happy to take them on the line.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -6.5 $1.85
Penrith Panthers ($2.55) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.52)
Friday, 19th June 7:55pm, Campbelltown Stadium
The first of 3 top 8 clashes for the round sees the 5th placed Penrith Panthers welcome the 3rd placed Melbourne Storm to Campbelltown Stadium in a huge clash for both teams top 4 aspirations. The Panthers, coming off their first loss of the season after blowing a 10-0 with 20 minutes to go against the Eels, will be desperate to bounce back here after a disappointing defensive effort that saw them miss 38 tackles. On the other hand the Storm are coming off arguably their best performance of the season after defeating the previously undefeated Knights 26-12, away from home, largely thanks to a 90% completion rate and a vintage performance from Cameron Smith. If Smith and the Storm are to play anywhere near as clinical as they did last week against the Panthers then it will be incredibly difficult for the Panthers to add to the one win from their last 8 meetings against the Storm. To add to the Storm's confidence is the fact that they have named the same 17 as last week but look out for Brandon Smith to be promoted to the starting side in place of Christian Welch, as he has been the last two weeks. Thankfully for the Panthers they are welcoming back fullback Dylan Edwards from injury who replaces Caleb Aekins whilst Kurt Capewell is out for over a month with a knee injury as Liam Martin comes into the starting side and Billy Burns joins the bench. Interestingly, of the Storms seven wins against the Panthers six of these have been by 14 points or over and with the Storms attack looking to find their feet up against a side whose defence had conceded only 16 points per game prior we are confident of them notching another win here and to do so in comfortable fashion.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -4.5 $1.95
Gold Coast Titans ($2.30) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.62)
Saturday, 20th June 3:00pm, Suncorp Stadium
A battle of two teams who are tipped to be vying for the dreaded wooden spoon come the end of the season in the Gold Coast Titans and the St. George Illawarra Dragons meet in a largely important game for both teams' seasons. The Dragons, fresh off their first win for 2020 against the Sharks, will be looking to extend on a 4 game winning streak against the Titans, a streak that has seen them average 40 points per game against them. If they are to go close to this 40 point average then it is going to take another clinical performance from them as their victory last week was largely thanks to their 88% completion rate and a host of errors from the Sharks. For the Titans to turn around this losing streak, then they will need to significantly improve their defence, which has conceded just over 32 points per game in 2020. This will require the Titans to reduce the 16 errors and 36 missed tackles that they made last week against the Rabbitohs in their 32-12 loss. As a result they have drafted in new signing Corey Thompson to fullback with Phillip Sami moving the wing, Brain Kelly into centre and Dale Copley drops out of the side. On the other hand the Dragons have kept the same 17 from last week with the only change being James Graham moving into the starting side as Trent Merrin drops back to the bench alongside Ben Hunt. This looks to be a good move from coach Paul McGregor as the Dragons looked a much more energetic and improved side, particularly with the addition of Matt Dufty, and we are confident that they can make it back to back wins for the first time since April of 2019. To add a bit of value we feel that the Dragons should win by more than a try, as they have done in their last 4 victories against the Titans, and for that reason we will continue our theme of line betting this week by taking them on the line.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons -3.5 $1.85
Wests Tigers ($1.76) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($2.05)
Saturday, 20th June 5:30pm, Campbelltown Stadium
Eighth plays ninth in Saturday's second game as the North Queensland Cowboys travel to Campbelltown Stadium to take on the Wests Tigers in another important fixture for the future of both teams seasons. With both teams coming into this fixture on the back of a two game losing streak the stakes will be high as they look to make their claims for why they should feature in the finals this season. For the Cowboys their losses have come against the 13th placed Sharks and the 11th placed Warriors, two games that they both started favourite in and two results that highlighted their frail defence, which has conceded 63 points in the last 2 weeks. This trend is becoming a concern for the Cowboys as their only two wins have come against the 15th and 16th placed teams and there will need to be drastic improvements if they are to beat a Tigers side that has won their last 3 games against them. For the Tigers their losses have come against the 16th placed Titans and the 2nd placed Raiders, the latter being a much improved performance where they led the Raiders 4-0 at halftime, only to lose 14-6 on the back of a more experienced Raiders side. This week sees Tigers coach Michael Maguire continue to shuffle his side as Robert Jennings returns on the wing in place of the injured Tommy Talua whilst Luke Garner replaces Chris Lawrence in the back row and Matt Eisenhuth & Sam McIntyre replace the suspended Russel Packer and Alex Seyfarth on the bench. Similarly the Cowboys are in the midst of an injury crisis as representative players Valentine Holmes & Jordan McLean are out due to injury along with suspended first gamer Tom Gilbert. In their place comes 18 year old Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at fullback, 21 year old Connelly Lemeulu on the wing, Francis Molo at prop and Ben Hampton, Corey Jensen and Peter Hola join the bench. With the significant number of changes that the Cowboys have made, including two of their leading players it’s hard to see them getting past a Tigers outfit on the road. To add to the fact that the market has them almost evenly split at the moment we think there’s a bit of value in the Tigers line, who will take confidence from their recent record against the Cowboys.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers -1.5 $1.80
Sydney Roosters ($1.45) vs Parramatta Eels ($2.75)
Saturday, 20th June 7:35pm, Bankwest Stadium
Arguably the clash of the round sees the defending premiers the Sydney Roosters take on the undefeated and top of the table Parramatta Eels at Bankwest Stadium as both teams look to send a statement of intent to the rest of the competition. The Eels have, without a doubt, been the most impressive team this season as they sit with a perfect 5-0 record that is largely thanks to an average of just 8 points conceded per game. Last week we saw the Eels best victory of the year too, as they came from 10-0 down against the previously undefeated Panthers to win 16-10 in a true test of their premiership credentials. Standing in their way this week though is the 2 time defending premiers in the Roosters, who are on the back of 3 consecutive wins as they march up the table. During this period they have scored 129 points and conceded just 18 in a true showing that despite not being the same team from the previous 2 seasons, they are still serious contenders again. To add to their confidence is the fact that prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returns from a back injury as Lindsay Collins moves to the bench, with Mitch Aubusson dropping off the bench and Sam Verrils returning. The Eels have also been forced into changes as Kane Evans will miss coming up against his former club due to suspension, with Oregon Kaufusi replacing him on the interchange in what is their only change. Looking closely at the market they have currently installed the Roosters as significant favourites, likely due to the size of their last 3 wins, which importantly have come against bottom 8 sides. The Eels will be a different kettle of fish for the Roosters but we believe they have the experience and class to overcome an Eels side that they won their last 3 against, although we think that it’ll be a little bit closer than the market suggests so we’ll take them by 1-12.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $2.80
Canberra Raiders ($1.55) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($2.45)
Sunday, 21st June 4:05pm, Campbelltown Stadium
The last of the top 8 clashes for the round sees the second placed Canberra Raiders take on the 7th placed Manly Sea Eagles with both teams looking to improve on slow starts from the last 2 weeks. The Sea Eagles can consider themselves the luckiest as they came from 18-0 down to defeat the Broncos 20-18 as they completely dominated possession in the second half on the back of a huge performance from Addin Fonua-Blake in the forward pack. On the other hand the Raiders were down 4-0 at halftime and had to rely on an inspiring performance from five-eight Jack Wighton in a 14-6 victory over the Tigers. This week sees both teams making a couple changes as the Raiders welcome back two important forwards in Corey Horsburgh and Hudson Young who take the place of Bailey Simonsson and Dunamis Lui as they look to size up against a big Manly pack. For the Sea Eagles they will be without star forward Martin Taupau and strike centre Moses Suli who are out with finger injuries but will welcome back Curtis Sironen into the back row as Brendan Elliott and Morgan Boyle replace the injured players. Despite these injuries Manly still look to be at a decent price for us as they currently boast 6 wins out of their last 7 meetings against the Raiders, with their only loss being a 1 point loss in 2018. With that in mind we were very close to looking towards Manly with the line start but we think we’ve found ourselves a decent bit of value in the highest scoring half markert. As we mentioned previously both teams have been starting considerably slower over recent weeks and in fact, when we took a closer look at this both teams have collectively scored 38 points in the first half in comparison to a whopping 84 points in the second half in the last 3 weeks. With more than double the points scored in the second half for these teams we’re happy to look at the 2nd half being the highest scoring yet again.
Recommended Bet: Highest Scoring Half Second Half $1.80
Cronulla Sharks ($1.52) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.55)
Sunday, 21st June 6:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
The final game of the round sees two teams languishing near the bottom four in the Cronulla Sharks and the Canterbury Bulldogs, with both teams desperate to bounce back from awful losses in the last round. For the men from Cronulla it looked like they had turned a corner after they took down the Cowboys away from home but they fumbled their way to a 30-16 loss to the previously winless Dragons after making 15 errors and missing 46 tackles. On the other hand the Bulldogs, who were also coming off a commanding 20 point win against the Dragons, were completely humiliated by the Roosters by 42 points to 6 as their forwards struggled to make any inroads in the middle third and they also made 15 errors and missed a huge 39 tackles. As a result this week has seen both sides make a number of changes in a bid to revert back to their winning form from the previous week. For the Sharks Jack Williams comes back into the starting side as Toby Rudolf moves to the bench, whilst Siosifa Talakai and Royce Hunt replaced Connor Tracey and Scott Sorensen on the interchange. On the other hand the Bulldogs will still be without Aiden Tolman due to quarantine restrictions and have also dropped Nick Meaney & Morgan Harper as Kerrod Holland and Reimis Smith come into the side with Jake Averillo moving to the wing, Renouf To’omaga going to prop and Sauaso Sue going to the bench. Looking more closely at the recent history of these sides the Dogs may have won the last meeting between these sides last year but Sharks have won the previous 6 before that in what was a dominant period for the Sharks. During this period the last 6 meetings have been decided by 12 points or less and with the Sharks having a little bit more quality on the park we’re going to lean towards them in a close one.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $2.80
