Round 4 Preview
While we were once again treated to an entertaining round of NRL, a number of serious injuries will potentially curtail a number of teams' aspirations over the coming rounds. Last week, we were 4/8 in recommended bets and with a number of short priced favourites across the weekend’s rounds, I’ve had to work hard to find some value.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ($6.90) v Penrith Panthers ($1.08)
Thursday 1st April, 8:05PM, Lottoland Stadium
The Panthers stamped their credentials as Premiership favourites with a stirring victory against Melbourne in their grand final re match. Whilst their first two round wins were impressive, albeit against lesser opposition, a win over the Storm without Nathan Cleary will have provided the rest of Ivan Cleary’s men with a lot of confidence, which does not bode well for the winless Sea Eagles. The Silvertails were dismantled 38-12 by the Dragons last week, and with star full back Tom Trbojevic still at least another week away from his return from a hamstring injury, coach Des Hasler will need to find answers in both attack and defence to turn the tables on the Panthers. The Sea Eagles have missed the fifth most tackles in the competition this year with 105, while the Panthers have lodged the most tackle busts (120) in a clear indicator, the Manly defensive line better come ready to play or the score could blow out quickly. With fullback Dylan Edwards suffering a broken hand in the round 3 match with the Storm, Stephen Chrichton moves to fullback, while the impressive Matt Burton will take his spot at left centre. The handicap has been set at 19.5 points and while this is a considerable headstart for the Sea Eagles, Penrith won 42-12 in their Round 12 clash at the same venue last year and I’m confident they’ll be able to register a similar score again.
Recommended Bet: Penrith Panthers -19.5 ($1.90)
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($9.00) v South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.06)
Friday 2nd April, 4:05PM, Stadium Australia
The Good Friday matches begin with the high flying Rabbitohs going up against the struggling Bulldogs. The oddsmakers have firmly entrenched South Sydney as short favourites on the back of both their scintillating win against old foes Roosters, along with the Bulldogs lacklustre 24-0 loss to the Broncos. When the Rabbitohs get confident there is arguably no team in the competition who can match their firepower in attack, in particular Latrell Mitchell, who’s strong start to the season sees him leading the Dally M voting after three rounds. Off season recruit Jai Arrow is proving himself to being one of the best buys providing the red and green with impact off the bench, while Cameron Murray is returning to the form that saw him christened one of the best young players in the game. While the Rabbitohs stock is rising, I’d be selling off the Bulldogs stock immediately, with Trent Barrett’s parked in second last on the ladder, only saved by Manly’s worse for and against. A shutout against the Broncos has started the alarm bells at Belmore, but with a lot more questions than answers, in both attack and defence, the Rabbitohs have the potential to rack up a cricket score. Select any member of the Rabbitohs backline to score a try in wider exotics
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -21.5 $1.90
Melbourne Storm ($1.06) v Brisbane Broncos ($9.00)
Friday 2nd April, 8:05PM, AAMI Park
Who would have guessed after three rounds that last year’s wooden spooners would be situated above the Premier’s on the ladder. The Storm however, have gone within a whisker of beating both the Eels and Panthers in the previous two rounds, with only the arm of Villami Kikau denying centre Justin Olam a match winning try after the siren. The Storm gain a reprieve here as they return to Melbourne to host the Broncos, who despite their win over the Bulldogs last week, are not the same calibre side Melbourne has fronted up against in the preceding two rounds. Ryan Papenhuyzen returns to the side after missing last week’s loss with a neck injury, and will add an extra ball player to a side averaging just 11 points in their losses. The Broncos will aim to control the ball better this round, with Kevin Walters side committing 33 handling errors in the opening rounds, and can ill afford to cough up possession against one of the best front running sides in the competition. The Storm were 46-8 winners in their most recent contest in 2020, and despite the return of Payne Haas to bolster Brisbane’s forwards, the Storm will be itching to turn in a dominant performance against their old rivals.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -20.5 $1.95
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks ($1.38) v North Queensland Cowboys ($3.05)
Saturday 3rd April, 5:30PM, Sunshine Coast Stadium
I found this game the hardest to get an understanding of heading into round 4 with both sides either playing poorly, or at best, wildly inconsistent. After scoring first through Sione Katoa in the 6th minute last round, the Sharks didn’t fire another shot, being trounced by Parramatta, while the Cowboys did not fare better after a drubbing at the hands of Queensland rivals the Titans. The Sharks will come into the game without Sione Katoa and Briton Nikora after injuries last round, however still boast an impressive lineup and will be looking for spark from Matt Moylan and Josh Dugan. Interestingly, despite their up and down start to the year, Cronulla boast the third most post contact metres with 1,925 and if they are able to continue this trend and get front foot ball, they will be able to register a second win this season. Up in Townsville, coach Todd Payten has swung the metaphorical axe with Esan Masters and Jake Clifford dropped and the exciting Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifted back to his preferred position on the wing. The Cowboys and Sharks sit one and two for most missed tackles this year and points may flow if both sets of halves are able to get their attacking shape going.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $2.90
Gold Coast Titans ($2.35) v Canberra Raiders ($1.59)
Saturday 3rd April, 7:35PM, Cbus Super Stadium
Saturday’s matches are headlined by a top eight contest, with the Titans hosting the Raiders from Cbus Super Stadium on the Gold Coast. After a disappointing opening round against the Warriors, the Titans have now one two games on the bounce, both wins over their fellow Queensland clubs, with last weekend’s 44-8 trouncing of the Cowboys establishing them as the top team in the Sunshine State. Their attack has been sensational in those wins, leading the comp in linebreaks with 20, while off season signing is justifying the large contract given to him to lead the competition in tackle breaks with 24. Conversely, the Raiders suffered their first loss of 2021 in an absolute thriller against the Warriors, and despite giving up a significant lead, were reduced to 14 men for a majority of the game. While the Raiders have won 4 of the past 5 contests between the two sides, and all by double figures, this Titans outfit is incomparable to years gone bye and I’m confident they will be able to pick up their third win on trot, especially with Raiders stars Curtis Scott and Joe Tapine unavailable due to injury.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans 1-12 $3.60
Newcastle Knights ($1.40) v St George Dragons ($2.90)
Sunday 4th April, 4:05PM, McDonald Jones Stadium
Pending results in other fixtures, but the winner of the Knights and Dragons could potentially see themselves situated in the top 4 coming out of the Easter long weekend. Anthony’s Griffin tenure at the helm of the Dragons has gotten off to a positive start, with two wins from his first three games with many fans of the Red V encouraged at the prospects of the team in 2021. However, the excitement was tempered with captain Ben Hunt having suffered a fractured fibula in their dominant victory against the Cowboys in Wollongong. Centre Zac Lomax was a standout in that fixture, scoring 22 points individually as he crossed for a double to outscore Manly by himself. Newcastle, would be highly disappointed with their efforts against the previously winless Tigers in Newcastle last round. The Novacastrians were unable to gain any momentum throughout the game, curtailed by large amounts of dropped ball and in the process ruined their successful start to the year. In the three previous clashes between the sides, the Knights have run out comfortable victors by more than 20 points on two of those occasions and while I think the Knights will turn around their form, the improved performances of the Dragons should see it end in a close one.
Recommended Bet: St George Illawarra Dragons +7.5 ($1.90)
Sydney Roosters ($1.45) v New Zealand Warriors ($2.75)
Sunday 4th April, 6:15PM, Sydney Cricket Ground
Sunday 4th April, 6:15PM, Sydney Cricket Ground
The Roosters host the Warriors Sunday evening at the SCG in the game I am most excited about this round. The tricolours were out of the game by halftime last round against the Rabbitohs, going down 18-0 before placing a bit of respectability into the scoreline, ending 26-16. If a loss to their oldest rivals isn’t enough for the Roosters to handle, halfback Luke Keary is expected to miss the rest of the season with a leg injury, which paves the way for inexperienced halves pairing of Sam Walker and Drew Hutchison to guide the team around this weekend. In positive news, Victor Radley will finally return to the side after being ruled out late last week and expect him to be pivotal to their attacking shape with his ball skills in the centre of the field. The Warriors defeated the Raiders last round 34-31 in one of the most exciting games in recent memory and showed tremendous heart to overturn the double figure deficit in the second half. While they typically struggle to produce consistent results, Nathan Brown has them operating with a quiet confidence, highlighted by the play of Kodi Nikorima who was nothing short of phenomenal in their comeback victory. The battle between James Tedesco and Roger-Tuivasa Scheck will alone be worth the price of admission and while I expect the Roosters to be good enough to secure their third win of the season, it won’t come by much of a margin.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 ($2.80)
Wests Tigers ($3.60) v Parramatta Eels ($1.28)
Monday 5th April, 4:00PM, Stadium Australia
The Tigers put in an improved showing Sunday to record their first win of the season, defeating the Knights 24-20 in Newcastle, reversing two heavy defeats against the same outfit in 2020. While they will have taken confidence from the win, a Western Sydney derby against a high flying Parramatta presents another challenge for the merger club. After two victories marred by inconsistency throughout the full 80 minutes, Brad Arthur’s side put in a classy performance to down the Sharks 28-4 at Bankwest Stadium on Saturday. A key to the Eels play this year has been the offloading rates of the forwards, good for a competition best 43 and allow players like Clint Gutherson and Dylan Brown to attack without a set defensive line. While the Tigers will take confidence from a win, as well as Michael Maguire naming an unchanged lineup, they have only secured one win over their Western Sydney rivals since 2017 and will need to step up too another level to win again Monday. Parramatta will need to not underestimate them off the back of this stat, but if they can find plenty of open space like last weekend on the back of their forwards and offload game, then I’m confident they will win here by a big margin.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -10.5 ($1.90)
