Round 3 Preview
While the season is still in its infancy, there is already a clear picture forming as to who will finish in the top half of the ladder, and those toward the bottom. With an improved forecast for the Eastern states this weekend, let’s hope for another exciting round of football.
Penrith Panthers ($1.85) v Melbourne Storm ($1.95)
Thursday 25th March, 7:05PM, BlueBet Stadium
Round 3 begins with a replay of the 2020 grand final as Penrith play host to Melbourne on Thursday at the newly anointed Bluebet Stadium. The Clive Churchill Medalist in the final, Ryan Papenhuyzen has been ruled out with a neck injury after a blistering start to the year, with a competition best 45 runs and 182 kick return metres. Meanwhile, the Panthers have surged into favouritism for this year’s final on the back of two dominant victories and are yet to concede a point. Penrith junior Brian To’o has seen his game go from strength to strength, highlighted by his competition leading 17 tackle busts and 192 post contact metres coming off the back of his combination with fellow juniors Stephen Chrichton and Jerome Luai. However, in a double blow to the Mountain Men, hooker Api Korosiau is out for five weeks with a broken wrist while halfback Nathan Cleary is out this round due to concussion suffered during last weekend’s match with the Bulldogs. The Storm will be keen to bounce back after their defeat last Thursday to the Eels and amazingly this is only the second instance since 2014 where they have began a round outside the top 8, a testament to their consistency. With a large majority of the Panthers spine missing this game, I’ve decided to take the Storm in what will be a tight contest.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 ($3.10)
St George Illawarra Dragons ($1.85) v Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.95)
Friday 26th March, 6:00PM, WIN Stadium
Manly head coach Des Hasler will be hoping his side can avoid their first 0-3 start since 2015 when coached by Geoff Toovery on Friday when they meet a rejuvenated Dragons side in Wollongong. St George, will take a lot of confidence from their 25-18 win over the Cowboys last week in Townsville, and subsequently find themselves as the favourites in betting with some of the Sea Eagles key players still on the sidelines through injury. Veteran back-rower Andrew Davey, suffered a ruptured ACL in their loss to the Rabbitohs and will miss the rest of 2021 season, and joins fellow forwards Curtis Sironen and Haumole Olakau’atu on the sidelines, while the always consistent Cade Cust is undergoing concussion protocols. Dylan Walker remains at fullback and will no doubt be placed under pressure from the kicking game of Ben Hunt and Corey Norman. Hunt has been impressive so far this year, having recorded four try assists and three line break assists to go along with a try, and the Red V look a very dangerous side when he is playing his best football. The Dragons have won four of the last five contests between these two outfits and I am keen to be with them again here.
Recommended Bet: St George Illawarra ($1.85)
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.20) v Sydney Roosters ($1.67)
Friday 26th March, 8:05PM, Stadium Australia
The game’s oldest rivals go head to head for the first time this year, in what potentially looms as a Grand Final preview. The Roosters have demolished the Sea Eagles and Tigers in the opening two rounds, scoring an astonishing 86 points, whilst conceding just 10. The evergreen Brett Morris continues to age like a fine win, registering a hat trick in both fixtures to lead the Dally M voting, while James Tedesco trails him by just 1 in the try scoring department, having crossed the chalk five times himself. The tricolours welcome back Angus Chrichton from suspension while Victor Radley will make his first appearance in the top grade since round 7 last year, off the bench after missing the majority of 2020 with an ACL tear. The Rabbitohs meanwhile have recalled former New South Wales and Australian winger Josh Mansour for Jaxson Paulo who has suffered consecutive concussions while halfback Adam Reynolds is also in doubt having entered concussion protocols after an impressive performance in their win over Manly. Fans of both sides will no doubt recall the 60-8 drubbing Rabbitohs handed the tricolours in their round 20 clash, highlighted by five tries to Alex Johnston. Despite this, Trent Robinson’s men have looked extremely clinical in their opening two games and on the back of that, I’m happy to back them to win here.
Recommended Bet: Roosters ($1.67)
Canberra Raiders ($1.25) v New Zealand Warriors ($4.00)
Saturday 27th March, 3:00PM, GIO Stadium
The Raiders head back down the Hume Highway to host their second game of the year against a Warriors side already feeling the effects of injury early in the season. Chanel Tevita Harris joins Euan Aitken on the sidelines for at least twelve weeks after a stress fracture was diagnosed in his left foot, and leaves a big hole in the side after his impressive start to the season. On the Canberra front, there has been some positive news for the promising Hudson Young with the second-rower pulling up fine from a suspected knee injury last week, while captain Jarrod Croker has been named to make his first appearance of the 2021 season. Canberra, much like last year, has struggled to string together two consistent halves this season, which leaves the current double=digit line looking a little generous.On the flip side, the Warriors have typically been a very strong bet on the back of a loss covering in eight of their last 11 games and over the past two seasons, are building a reputation as a side with plenty of guts considering the obstacles placed in front. As such, I’m willing to back them to cover the line Saturday afternoon.
Recommended Bet: Warriors +10.5 ($1.90)
Brisbane Broncos ($1.70) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($2.15)
Saturday 27th March, 5:30PM, Suncorp Stadium
While the season is only young, it would be fair to state both Brisbane and Canterbury are more than likely going to finish in the lower half of the table this year, but that doesn’t stop us from finding a bit of value. After showing promise in their opening game against Parramatta, the Broncos put in a very 2020 like performance against the Titans committing 14 errors and missing 37 tackles, with a large majority of those coming inside their own half. But if it’s any consolation, the Bulldogs have not fared much better, having been shut out by the Panthers in the wet last Saturday night, and comprehensively defeated by Newcastle the week prior. Trent Barrett will be hoping new recruits Kyle Flanagan and Nick Cotric can spark an attack with only three tries in two rounds while Anthony Milford and Tevita Pangai-Junior are the vital pieces in a quest for a long awaited Brisbane victory. Interestingly, their last win was against the Bulldogs in round 9 last year, and despite them letting me down last week when I confidently backed them against the Titans, this look’s a much more winnable task here.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos ($1.70)
Parramatta Eels ($1.37) v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks ($3.10)
Saturday 27th March, 7:35PM, Bankwest Stadium
Too often during the back end of last season, the Parramatta Eels faltered under pressure, but last Thursday they ended some of that criticism with a victory in torrential conditions against the Storm. Hooker, Reed Mahoney has made a flying start to the season, not only leading the league in tackles with 114 but has had a positive impact on the attack of Brad Arthur’s men with dynamic hookers across the competition making full use of the rule changes designed to increase the speed of the game. His work rate in dummy half along with Junior Paulo and Nathan Brown will go a long way towards the Eels winning not only this game, but many more throughout the season. The Sharks meanwhile, couldn’t back up their round victory after going down to the Raiders on Sunday, and arguably may have won that matchup had Chad Townsend kicked two relatively easily conversions. They’ve shown a lot of heart in the opening two rounds, but it very much looks as though they haven’t progressed on last year’s up and down season, and will have to wait for at least another month for star halfback Shaun Johnson to return from an achilles injury. While their opening two victories have required significant efforts in the second half, the longer back up into Saturday’s game will see Brad Arthur’s team ready to go and I’m confident they will be able to cover the line this weekend. Include Junior Paulo to score a try in your bets as the front row forward has crossed twice already this year and is already looking like coming into career best form.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -7.5 ($1.90) and Junior Paulo to score ($5.50)
Newcastle Knights ($1.32) v Wests Tigers ($3.40)
Sunday 28th March, 4:00PM, McDonald Jones Stadium
The Knights have performed extremely well to open the season with two wins when considering the long list of injuries head coach Adam O’Brien has had to overcome. The Knights are completing 88% of their sets, good for the second best in the competition while also making the third most tackles across the two rounds, suggesting their fitness is well equipped for their fast pace of play. Conversely, the axe has swung at Tigerland with coach Michael Maguire moving off season recruit Joe Ofahengaue to the bench, and Joey Leilua back to NSW Cup. While their two losses have been against perennial finalists the Roosters and Raiders, the manner in which they play is of most concern to the merger club’s fans with the Roosters in particular running through their hapless defence. A big crowd is expected Sunday afternoon in Newcastle and I’m expecting the Knights to put in a good showing for the Novacastrian faithful.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights 13+ ($2.30)
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.60) v Gold Coast Titans ($1.50)
Sunday 28th March, 6:30PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Titans will be looking for back-to-back Queensland derby wins against the Cowboys in the final clash of round 3. I found this match quite tough to assess, with the Cowboys winless despite an improved showing against the Dragons last round, while the Titans defeat of the Broncos didn’t answer the questions many supporters had after their loss to the Warriors in round 1. Both teams have made more than 30 errors in the opening two games and with early season games in Townsville notoriously difficult for travelling teams due to the heat and humidity, will see ball control be a focal point for both coaches this week in order to avoid large periods of defence. Both sides have key outs, with Kyle Feldt suspended due to two dangerous challenges on Jack Bird, while Gold Coast half Ash Taylor suffered a hand injury and it is reported he will miss several weeks of action. Considering the Titans haven’t tasted victory in Queensland’s north since 2012, and the odds available for the Cowboys, I’m happy to stick with them to secure their first victory of 2021.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys 1-12 ($4.00)
