NRL Round 24 Preview
With 2 rounds left of the regular season a number of teams have already set their sights on mad Monday celebrations whilst a number of teams are hanging onto their slim hopes of scraping into the top 8. Read on as we preview the rounds fixtures and cast our eyes over what we think will happen.
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.70) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.15)
Thursday, 29th August 7:50pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
The Canterbury Bulldogs dream run continued last week as they knocked off the 6th placed Parramatta Eels to extend their streak to 4 wins in a row and they will be hoping to make it 5 as they come up against the 14th placed North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville. The Bulldogs will still be hanging onto their slim mathematical chance of making it into the 8 and for this to happen they will need to beat a Cowboys side who showed a renewed lease of life in their last victory against the Panthers. In this game the Cowboys were able to control the game thanks to an 85% completion rate and 2 tries to strike winger Kyle Feldt, which helped them race away to a 24-10 victory. This week they will be hoping for another controlled performance and to do this coach Paul Green has named the same 17 from last week as he hopes for back to back wins for the first time since round 11 & 12. For the Bulldogs they have made just the one change as Reimis Smith is out due to suspension and is replaced by one of the form wingers from the opening rounds of the season in Jayden Okunbor who makes his return to first grade after suffering a long-term injury. The last time these two teams met was back in round 7 where the Bulldogs disposed of the Cowboys 24-12 in a win that saw them extend their streak to 2 wins against the Cowboys. If the Bulldogs are to replicate a similar performance to that of round 7 and of recent weeks then it is hard to look past them and we are tipping them to continue their unlikely charge to a finals berth.
Recommended Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs $2.15
New Zealand Warriors ($2.72) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.47)
Friday, 30th August 6:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium
The South Sydney Rabbitohs looked to have finally regathered their mojo with their 22-20 victory over the Broncos last week, which saw them break a 3 game losing streak to the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. This week they will come up against a side whose season is essentially over in the New Zealand Warriors and it will be interesting to see which Warriors side will turn up after their 42-16 embarrassment at the hands of the Cronulla Sharks in their last match. As a result of this embarrassing performance coach Stephen Kearney has made a host of changes to his side. These include the recall of mid-season signing Kodi Nikorima to the halves as Chanel Harris-Tevita moves to the bench, Agnatius Paasi moves to starting prop, Lachlan Burr & Ligi Sao move to the bench and Blake Ayshford is dropped completely. Likewise, the Rabbitohs have also made a host of changes with Sam Burgess, Alex Jonhnston, Ehtan Lowe and Kyle Turner all returning from injury meaning that Junior Tatola moves to the bench, James Roberts is out suspended, Corey Allan comes onto the wing and Dane Gagai & Campbell Graham are the new-look centre pairing. In recent history the Rabbitohs have dominated this contest by winning 8 of the last 9, including a 28-24 victory from round 5 of this year. In this match Cody Walker dominated by scoring 4 tries and with the return of a number of big names for the Rabbitohs we are predicting them to cover the handicap for this weeks game, which is a handicap that they have covered in 6 of their last 8 wins against the Warriors.
Recommended Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs -5.5 Line $1.90
Brisbane Broncos ($1.60) vs Parramatta Eels ($2.35)
Friday, 30th August 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
Two sides who both sit within the top 8 but suffered losses in their last starts come up against each other in the prime time game of Friday as the Parramatta Eels travel up to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Brisbane Broncos. Last week the Eels were shocked by a resurgent Bulldogs side as their attack failed to click in a 12-6 loss at their previous home fortress of Bankwest Stadium. Likewise, the Broncos also lost at home last week as they were downed 22-20 by the Rabbitohs in a match where they had one extra player on the field for 20 minutes and they failed to capitalise on their opportunities. This week both coaches will be stressing the importance of a victory as there are a host of teams queuing up for their spots within the 8 and the Eels will be boosted by the return of star winger Blake Ferguson from a knee infection. As a result of this change Brad Takairangi has moved to the bench, Peni Terepo comes onto the bench for Tepai Moeroa and Marata Niukore takes Nathan Browns place in the starting side due to suspension. On the other hand the Broncos have stuck strong with the same 17 who went down last week and they will be hoping to avenge a disappointing 38-10 loss to the Eels back in round 14. This win for the Eels was their third win from their last five games against the Broncos and they will be full of confidence that another performance like round 14, where they ran for more than 400m than the Broncos, will lead to another victory. Despite this the market seems to suggest otherwise by installing the Broncos as favourites but we are confident in the Eels being both overpriced and able to cover the line set for this week.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels +3.5 Line $1.93
Newcastle Knights ($1.30) vs Gold Coast Titans ($3.60)
Saturday, 31st August 3:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Saturday’s first game sees the 16th placed Gold Coast Titans take on the 11th placed Newcastle Knights in a match that could serve as a dead rubber judging by the performance of both these teams last week. The Knights were completely embarrassed in their must win game last week as they were downed 46-4 by the Wests Tigers thanks to a whopping 46 missed tackles and running for almost 800m less than the Tigers. For the Titans, and to their credit, they put in a much more spirited effort than the Knights as they led the Storm 8-0 at one stage to only go down by 24 points to 8 and they will be hoping for an 80 minute performance as they look to end a 9 game losing streak. To add to the confidence of the Titans is the return of Jarrod Wallace to the starting lineup as Jai Arrow moves to lock, Nathan Peats shifts to hooker as Mitch Rein is suspended and Will Matthews comes onto the bench. On the other hand the Knights have virtually stuck with the same 17 from last week with their only change being Connor Watson moving into the starting position at hooker as Danny Levi is out with a rib injury. The last time these two teams the Titans trounced the Knights by 38 points to 14 in round 6 of this year as they extended an impressive run of 5 wins from their last 7 starts against the Knights. In these recent meetings it is interesting to note that the total points for their last 5 games has exceeded the total points line set for this week in every game as they have averaged 54 points between them per game. With the total points line set at 42.5 this week we are more than happy to look at the overs for this game in what should be another attacking shoot out.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 42.5 $1.88
Manly Sea Eagles ($2.20) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.68)
Saturday, 31st August 5:30pm, Lottoland
If the season were to finish right now then this would be a simulation, albeit at a different home ground, of the first week of the finals for the Manly Sea Eagles and the Melbourne Storm. With the Storm sitting in first and currently in a lean patch in terms of their form coming up against the fourth placed Manly Sea Eagles, who are not only flying high with confidence but also beat the Storm a mere 6 weeks ago, this game looks to be an absolute cracker. Last week saw the Storm put in an uncharacteristically error riddled performance to come from 8-0 down to defeat the Titans 24-8 whilst the Sea Eagles knocked off the third placed Raiders 18-14 away from home, who were coming off a win of their own against the Storm. Unfortunately for the Sea Eagles they lose back rower Joel Thompson to a broken arm this week but his loss is alleviated by the return of Curtis Sironen from a hamstring injury in what is their only change from their round 23 side. For the Storm Will Chambers returns in the place of Curtis Scott, Tino Faasuamaleaui comes onto the bench for Tui Kamikamica and Brodie Croft remains on the reserve list after missing last weeks win. For the Storm to win they will need to improve on the 42 missed tackles from their last meeting against Manly whilst Manly will be hoping that they can use their fast paced attack to catch the Storm napping in defence. Manly will also take confidence in their impressive home record that sits at 8 wins from 11 games. With the last 2 games between these two sides decided by a field goal and the Sea Eagles impressive home form we are confident that the Sea Eagles can cover the handicap start set for this weeks game.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles +2.5 Line $1.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.20) vs Penrith Panthers ($4.60)
Saturday, 31st August 7:35pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The Penrith Panthers season is on the line this week after their shock loss to the Cowboys and their assignment doesn’t get any tougher as they take on the defending premiers and second placed Sydney Roosters at Sydney Cricket Ground. The Roosters look like being arguably the form team of the competition at the moment as they have dismantled almost every team in front of them with ease over the last 2 months as they ride a 6 game winning streak. For the Panthers they were firmly in the running for a spot in the top 8 after their 7 game winning streak but they have slipped down to 10th after losing 4 of their last 5 matches and sit 1 point outside the 8 with 2 rounds to go. As a result Panthers coach Ivan Cleary has made a number of changes to his side with Moses Leota starting at prop, James Fisher-Harris moving to lock, Jarome Luai & Billy Burns come onto the bench and Isaah Yeo dropping out. For the Roosters the only change they have made has been the return of Latrell Mitchell in place of youngster Billy Smith as Boyd Cordner has been named amongst the extended reserves as he looks to return from an extended layoff due to a calf injury. The last time these two teams met was back in round 13 where the Panthers downed the Roosters 19-10 thanks to 8 unanswered points in the last 20 minutes. Despite this victory it is hard to trust the Panthers as they have lost their last 2 and currently lead the league in missed tackles, an area that the Roosters broken play experts James Tedesco and Luke Keary will be looking to exploit. With the form of the Roosters seemingly being exceptionally stronger than the Panthers we are confident they can notch their 7th straight win in convincing fashion.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 13+ $1.90
Cronulla Sharks ($2.05) vs Canberra Raiders ($1.77)
Sunday, 1st September 2:00pm, PointsBet Stadium
Potentially one of the most important games of the round in terms of the makeup of both the top four and the top eight is brought to us from PointsBet Stadium as the seventh placed Cronulla Sharks welcome the third placed Canberra Raiders in a Sunday afternoon blockbuster. The Sharks are currently sitting 2 points inside the 8 and will be desperate to keep the host of teams breathing down their neck at bay with another win against a Raiders side who are coming off a 18-14 home loss to the fourth placed Manly Sea Eagles. The Raiders will be disappointed with this loss after they put in arguably their best performance of the season against the Storm in the previous week and they will have to make do without Joey Leilua this week, as he is suspended, meaning Nick Cotric moves into the centres, Bailey Simonsson comes onto the wing and Siliva Havili joins the bench. For the Sharks their only changes are due to injury with Sosaia Feki out with a groin injury and is replaced by Sione Katoa whilst Jayson Bukuya replaces Jack Williams who is out with an ankle injury. In recent history this match has been relatively even as both sides hold 2 wins a piece in their last 4 games with the Raiders currently having the bragging rights after their 22-20 victory from earlier on this year. In this game the Sharks missed 2 conversions that would have won them the game and they will be eager to avenge this loss as well as celebrate what is potentially Paul Gallen’s last game at PointsBet Stadium. With this in mind we are confident that the Sharks can pull off an upset victory in front of their home fans to extend their home record to 9 wins from 12 home games in 2019.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $3.30
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($2.05) vs Wests Tigers ($1.77)
Sunday, 1st September 4:05pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The final game of the round sees the 15th placed St. George Illawarra Dragons playing for nothing but pride against the 9th placed Wests Tigers who will need to win to keep their finals hopes alive. The Dragons will be utterly disappointed with their effort against the Roosters last week as the Roosters put on a clinic to lead 34-0 after 50 minutes before they switched into second gear and the Dragons stole back 2 tries to go down 34-12. Another performance like that could result in another dismal score for the Dragons as the Tigers showed their attacking potential last week in their 46-4 thumping of the Newcastle Knights thanks to a 4 try assist performance from veteran five eight Benji Marshall. As a result Tigers coach Michael Maguire has kept the same 17 from last week but it will be interesting to watch whether or not he keeps last weeks tactics of moving Josh Reynolds to the bench, Ryan Matterson to hooker and Matt Eisenhuth to start just before kick off. For the Dragons they have made minimal changes after last weeks loss with Patrick Kaufusi returning from concussion in place of Jacob Host and Ben Hunt is named on the extended bench as he looks to return from concussion too. Thankfully for the Dragons they do hold a positive record against the Tigers by winning 3 of their last 4 meetings but the Dragons of these wins have been much different to the Dragons of today. If the Dragons struggle defensively like they have in recent weeks then look for the Tigers to put on another attacking masterclass and with a lot more to play for we are predicting the Tigers to continue their march towards a top 8 spot.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers -1.5 Line $1.90
