NRL Round 19 Preview
With two rounds left to play in the regular season the top eight has been locked in and it is now just a matter of teams figuring out their final spot within the eight. Read on as we preview round 19, which sees a large number of lopsided games due to all but two games featuring top eight sides taking on bottom eight sides.
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.10) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($7.00)
Thursday, 17th September 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium
Round 19 kicks off with a fiery Sydney rivalry and a replay of the 2014 grand final as the South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the Canterbury Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium. Fast forward a few years on from that night and both teams sit in polarising positions in comparison to the heights they were at then. For the Rabbitohs they continue to remain a force to be reckoned with as they sit 6th on the ladder after winning five from their last six, which was summed up with a 26-24 victory against the Tigers last week. This victory was hard fought for as Souths led 26-12 only to almost be run down as coach Wayne Bennett will rue a couple of missed chances and only a 75% completion rate. On the other hand the Bulldogs are a shadow of the team they were in 2014 as they have lost seven in a row and currently sit last on the ladder as they risk getting their first wooden spoon since 2008. Last week the Bulldogs gave away another early lead as they went from 10-0 up to losing 32-20 against an injury ravaged Manly side in what looked their best remaining chance to climb off the bottom of the ladder. This week sees both sides make a couple of changes due to form and suspension. For the Rabbitohs they lose Dane Gagai to suspension as Jaxson Paulo takes his spot on the wing whilst Hame Sele returns from injury to replace Patrick Mago on the wing. For the Bulldogs Nick Meaney & Dean Britt are both dropped as Dallin Watene-Zelezniak moves to the wing and Tim Lafai comes into the centres whilst Britt is replaced on the bench by Sione Katoa. In the forwards Matt Doorey is out injured with Chris Smith starting at lock, Josh Jackson returns to the edge, Luke Thompson starts at prop and Renouf To’omaga to the bench. With the large scale changes for the Bulldogs as well as the Bunnies still missing some key backline members then we’re quite keen on the unders in this week's match. In the last five meetings between the two sides the total match points have gone under 36 points, which is well under this week's total of 44 and with that in mind we will look at the unders in what should be a low scoring win to the men from South Sydney.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 44.5 $1.88
North Queensland Cowboys ($5.75) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.14)
Friday, 18th September 6:00pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Top of the table Penrith Panthers have the chance to secure the minor premiership with a win against the North Queensland Cowboys in Friday’s first game. The Panthers currently hold a three point gap at the top of the table and with only two games left a 14th consecutive win would see them hold an insurmountable lead to the second placed Storm. Last week the Panthers solidified themselves as the team to beat in the competition as they defeated the fourth placed Eels 20-2. In this match the Panthers dominated the middle of the park and if it wasn’t for a host of errors then they could have won by much more. This week they take on a Cowboys side who they defeated 22-10 back in round 10 and own only one win from their last 10 matches. This win came two weeks ago against the Dragons and their last match involved a 36-20 loss to the Storm after experienced forward Josh McGuire was sin binned with the Cowboys leading the match. Whilst he was off the Storm ran in two tries up the middle of the park in what was a momentum swinging moment that the Cowboys will be frustrated about. As a result of McGuire’s send off he is suspended for this game forcing the Cowboys into a reshuffle. Francis Molo will start in McGuire’s lock position with Corey Jensen the new man in the front row and John Asiata’s suspension means Emry Pere comes onto the bench as well as Ben Condon. Jason Taumalolo has also been named on the extended bench as he looks to return from a calf injury whilst Justin O'Neil has been replaced by Murray Tualagi in the centres. For the Panthers Apisai Koroisau is out with a head knock as Mitch Kenny starts at hooker, James Tamou is rested with Moses Leota starting and Zane Tetevano also sits out as Jack Hetherington and Kurt Capewell join the bench. In recent history both sides have been relatively even and have featured in a couple of low scoring fixtures with their last two matches going under 34 points. With this in mind as well as a couple of key outs for both sides then we’re quite keen on the unders again in what should be a win to the Panthers.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 42.5 $1.88
Parramatta Eels ($1.10) vs Brisbane Broncos ($7.00)
Friday, 18th September 7:55pm, Bankwest Stadium
Friday’s prime time game sees the 4th placed Parramatta Eels take on the 15th placed Brisbane Broncos at Bankwest Stadium. Both teams will be desperate to shake off some poor form as the Eels have won just two from their last five and risk slipping out of the top four whilst the Broncos sit on a nine game losing streak and are dangerously close to their first wooden spoon. To add to the spice of this contest is the fact that in their last two meetings the Eels have defeated the Broncos twice by a combined score of 92-6, including a 34-6 win from round 3 of this year. Despite this the Eels attack has only managed 52 points across their last five matches including only two points in a 20-2 loss to the Panthers last week. In this loss the Eels struggled to maintain possession as their forwards were outmuscled and their halves struggled to take control of the game with their kicking. If the Eels are to bounce back into form then a match against the Broncos may be just what they need as the Broncos have the worst defence in the competition as they average over 30 points conceded per game. Last week they managed to hold the Titans to just 18 points but could only score 6 themselves but their renewed defensive effort in the last two weeks will concern a struggling Eels attack. Thankfully for the Eels they welcome back hooker Reed Mahoney as Ray Stone drops out of the side in what is their only change for this week. For the Broncos they lose Payne Haas and Rhys Kennedy for this week as Ben Teo & Joe Ofahengaue are the new starting front row pair with Jamil Hopoate & Ethan Bullemor joining the bench and in the backs Sean O’Sullivan is dropped for Tyson Gamble as the Broncos look to spark their attack. Despite the Eels struggles and the Broncos improved defensive effort it’s hard to see Brisbane troubling the Eels without Haas, who regularly plays 80 minutes and is without a doubt the leader of their pack. Add to the fact that the Broncos have an awful record in Sydney of 0 wins from 6 attempts as well as being beaten by this week's line in 4 of those losses then we are keen on the Eels to cover the line in what is an important game for their season.
Recommended Bet: Parramatta Eels -16.5 $1.90
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.46) vs Gold Coast Titans ($2.75)
Saturday, 19th September 3:00pm, Lottoland
The only clash of the round that sees two bottom eight teams pitted against each other as the Manly Sea Eagles take on the Gold Coast Titans at Lottoland. With both sides sitting equal on points on the ladder they will know that a win could climb them as high as 9th as they look to finish their season on a positive note. For the Titans they have certainly earned the respect of the competition as they have managed three consecutive wins against the Broncos, Bulldogs and Dragons. In these wins they have managed to conceded only 30 points in what is a marked improvement from a side who was averaging over 25 points per game earlier in the season and they will fancy their chances against a side that they boast three wins from their last four matches. For the Sea Eagles they were able to earn their first win in the last six weeks as they came back from 10-0 down to win 32-20 against the Bulldogs. This win was on the back of a starring performance from Daly Cherry-Evans as he put on three try assists and the Sea Eagles will need him firing on all cylinders if they are to defeat the resurgent Titans. Thankfully for the Sea Eagles Tom Trbojevic has been named on the extended bench as he looks to push for a return from his hamstring injury. Along with Trbojevic, Danny Levi returns at hooker as Corey Waddell comes onto the interchange whilst Lachlan Croker will get a chance to impress in the halves as a result of Cade Cust’s injury. For the Titans Kevin Proctor will return from suspension in place of the injured Beau Fermor while Tanah Boyd replaces Erin Clark on the bench. With the Sea Eagles likely to have a couple of big names back in the side then it is no surprise that they are well liked favourites in the market for this one, despite their average form. Where there does appear to be a little bit of value is in the total points market. In the last six games between these two sides the total score has gone over 40 points, with the last three going over 42 points, which is this week's line. Add to the fact that the Sea Eagles have featured in two high scoring contests in recent weeks and both sides have some important attacking players back then we’re predicting another high scoring contest between the two sides.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 42.5 $1.86
Melbourne Storm ($1.14) vs Wests Tigers ($5.75)
Saturday, 19th September 5:30pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
Saturday’s second game sees the second placed Melbourne Storm take on the ninth placed Wests Tigers at Sunshine Coast Stadium. This match will see Storm loanee Harry Grant take on his father club the Storm for the first time as the Tigers look to salvage something from their season after falling out of the race for the finals. Last week the Tigers almost pulled off a great escape by coming from 14 points down to lose by 2 points to the Rabbitohs and they will be hoping to improve on their 14 errors, which ultimately proved costly to them. For the Storm they earned their third consecutive win in a 36-20 victory against the Cowboys and they will be looking to build some momentum in what looks an easy run into the finals for them. This week will see them welcome back Christian Welch at prop as Nelson Asofa-Solomona starts at lock and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui moves to the bench whilst Ryan Papenhuyzen remains out of the side and Brandon Smith is named on the extended bench as he looks to return from injury. For the Tigers Joey Leilua comes back into the centres at the expense of Tommy Talau whilst Josh Reynolds replaces the suspended Luke Brooks in the halves. The Tigers have also made a couple of changes to their forwards as they add some size and strength with Russell Packer & Zane Musgrove joining the bench in place of Elijah Taylor & Jacob Liddle and Sam McIntyre starts in the back row with Luke Garner moving to the bench. In recent history both sides have featured in tight contests with their last 6 clashes being decided by 9 points or under in what has traditionally been a low scoring contest between the sides. As a result we’re quite keen to take on the Storm with the Tigers line, which has been set well over 9 points and with the Storm still lacking Papenhuyzen and the Tigers putting in an improved effort against the Rabbitohs then we think this one could be a little closer than expected.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers +14.5 Line $1.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.10) vs Cronulla Sharks ($7.00)
Saturday, 19th September 7:35pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The only top eight clash of the round sees the third placed Sydney Roosters take on the eighth placed Cronulla Sharks at the Sydney Cricket Ground. For both sides this will be an important clash as their last two fixtures pit them against fellow finals contenders and they will both want to go into the finals on the back of two wins rather than on a couple of losses. The Sharks will also be desperate to prove a point as the Roosters boast four consecutive wins against them and the Sharks are yet to earn a win against a fellow top eight side. Last week they secured their finals spot by downing the looming Warriors side 22-14 as Shaun Johnson's return to the side brought two try assists and a more controlled attacking performance. For the Roosters they secured their fourth consecutive win in a 42-12 demolition of the 7th placed Knights side. In this victory Luke Keary returned to form with a two try performance in what will be a concerning sight for sides coming into the finals. This week sees the Roosters rest a couple of key players with finals nearing. Star fullback James Tedesco and prop Siosiua Taukeiaho both sit out as Joseph Manu starts at fullback, Mitch Aubusson comes into the centres, Jared Waerea Hargreaves starts at prop and Freddy Lussick rejoins the bench. For the Sharks they will remain unchanged after a convincing performance against the Warriors. As mentioned previously the Roosters have dominated this contest in recent history but with a couple of key outs this game should be a little closer than expected. Where there does look to be a little bit of value is in the total points markets. In three of the last four meetings between the sides the total points has been 39 or under, which is well under this week's line of 44 points and with the Roosters missing two key attacking players then we are leaning towards a low scoring affair that should go the way of the Roosters.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 44.5 $1.88
Canberra Raiders ($1.10) vs New Zealand Warriors ($7.00)
Sunday, 20th September 2:00pm, GIO Stadium
Sunday’s first game sees a clash between the 5th placed Canberra Raiders and the 11th placed New Zealand Warriors at GIO Stadium. The Raiders will be desperate for a win as they continue to mount pressure on the struggling fourth placed Eels and they will be full of confidence after their 37-8 win against the Dragons. In this fixture star half Jack Wighton continued to take matters into his own hands with two tries as the Raiders bullied the Dragons through the middle and proved too clinical in attack. The Raiders will also be looking to add to their 20-6 victory against the Warriors back in round 2 as well as avenging their last two losses to the Warriors at GIO Stadium. If the Warriors are to win then they will need to return to the resilience that saw them threaten breaking into the top eight but with consecutive close losses to the Eels and the Sharks they will need to improve against a team in better form than both of those teams. In their loss to the Sharks they struggled to get out of their own end and lacked the strike power to finish off their sets in what will prove a concerning sign for this week’s fixture. To make matters worse the Warriors lose loan players Daniel Alvaro & George Jennings as Lachlan Burr starts at prop, Hayze Perham starts on the wing, Adam Keighran comes into the centres and Eliesa Katoa comes on the bench. On the other hand the Raiders only change is the swap of Tom Starling to the bench and Siliva Havili to the starting hooker role. As a result of the huge changes to the Warriors side we’re quite keen on the Raiders in this one. Their last four wins have been by 14 points or more and their attack has started to blossom in recent weeks by scoring over 30 points in four of their last five matches. With this in mind as well as the Warriors losses & their inability to play finals then we’ll take the Raiders with the line as they continue to push for a top four spot.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders -16.5 $1.90
Newcastle Knights ($1.33) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($3.30)
Sunday, 20th September 4:05pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The final game of the round sees the 7th placed Newcastle Knights take on the 13th placed St. George Illawarra Dragons at McDonald Jones Stadium. With the chance of a home elimination final still in play for the Newcastle side they will be hoping to bounce back from what was a disappointing effort last week against the Roosters. In this match the Roosters ran straight through them by winning 42-12 and despite the Knights resting a couple of key players their performance was well below standard for what we expect from a top 8 side. Standing in their way this week is a Dragon's side who have won three of their last four meetings, although the Knights won their last match in 2019 by 33 points. Recently the Dragons have been struggling in losing their last three matches against the Titans, Cowboys and Raiders. Across these losses the Dragons have managed just 40 points in attack whilst conceding 74 points and interim coach Dean Young will be hoping to secure at least one more win before the seasons end. This week sees the Knights welcome back star fullback Kalyn Ponga as Tex Hoy moves to halves with Mason Lino being dropped whilst Kurt Mann is out suspended with Chris Randall starting at hooker and Phoenix Crossland joining the bench. In the backs Hymel Hunt returns at centre in place of Gehamat Shibasaki and in the forwards Mitch Barnett starts at lock with Jacob Saifiti to the bench and Josh King out of the side. For the Dragons Tariq Sims returns in place of Billy Brittain on the bench and Max Feagai debuts on the bench as Tyrell Fuimaono drops out of the 17. Despite the Dragons holding a strong record against the Knights we are leaning towards the Knights on the back of the return of some of their key players and their strong form after a loss. Throughout 2020 the Knights have lost six times and on five of these occasions they have won the week after, doing so in convincing fashion on three occasions. As a result we’re keen on the Knights with the line this week as they come up against a Dragons struggling to score points and conceding at will, with nothing left to play for.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -8.5 $1.90
