NRL Round 11 Preview
Round 10 saw the sacking of one of the longest serving coaches in the NRL as well as some shock upsets and another tough loss for one of the competition's biggest clubs. Read on this week as we preview round 11, which includes a couple of big rivalries and some important games for the makeup of the top 8.
Parramatta Eels ($1.35) vs Wests Tigers ($3.20)
Thursday, 23rd July 7:50pm, Bankwest Stadium
The first game of round 11 sees a much anticipated clash between two Western Sydney teams who sit within the top 8 with the 2nd placed Parramatta Eels taking on the 7th placed Wests Tigers at Bankwest Stadium. This game is billed as one of the clashes of the round with the two teams holding a rich and fierce rivalry that is close to boiling point with the recent transfer of star back rower Ryan Matterson from the Tigers to the Eels. This transfer was back in the headlines this week as Matterson was revealed to have said that his old club, the Tigers, would never win a premiership and if there is anything that could inspire the Tigers to snap a 3 game losing streak against the Eels then that could be it. The Tigers will also take confidence from their performance last week as they put 48 points on the Broncos whilst conceding none, largely thanks to another man of the match performance from young hooker Harry Grant. On the other hand the Eels suffered only their second loss of the season as they went down 22-18 against an undermanned Manly side in what was an error prone performance. This week sees the Eels welcome back some big names though with Matterson rejoining the back row as Brad Takairangi reverts to the bench, Mitch Moses returns at halfback and Blake Ferguson returns on the wing as George Jennings, Jai Field and David Gower drop out of the side. For the Tigers their only change is back rower Luke Garner missing out as Michael Chee-Kam comes into his starting position. As we mentioned earlier the Eels are currently riding a 3 game winning streak against the Tigers but with the Tigers attack looking to be red hot last week and the Eels welcoming back some big attacking players it is the total points market that we are interested in for this one. Of the last four games between these sides, every one of them has gone past the total points line that is set for this game and with both teams currently averaging 22 & 24 points in attack this year then we are happy to look at the overs in this one to kickstart the round.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 39.5 Points $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.15) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($1.70)
Friday, 24th July 6:00pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The post Paul Green era begins for the North Queensland Cowboys in the first game on Friday as the Cowboys take on the Manly Sea Eagles up at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. After only 3 wins to start the year the Cowboys & Green agreed to mutually part ways as they look to reignite a team that currently looks stale in both attack and defence. Tasked with this job is assistant coach and former Cowboys player Josh Hannay who will want to snap his side's 3 game losing streak as soon as possible. To the Cowboys credit their performance against the first placed Panthers last week was much more convincing as they went down 22-10 and if it wasn’t for a few costly errors then it could’ve been much closer. Unfortunately for them they take on a Sea Eagles side who have just snapped their own 3 game losing streak by defeating the second placed Eels 22-18 and also hold the last 2 victories against the Cowboys in Townsville. To make matters worse for the Cowboys is the fact that one of the leading forwards in the game, Addin Fonua-Blake, returns from suspension for the Sea Eagles as the impressive Taniela Paseka reverts to the bench and Corey Waddell is out of the 17. If the Cowboys are to win this one then they will have to step it up another couple notches from last week and despite losing last week Hannay has decided to keep the same 17 for this week's clash. Without changing too much it is hard to predict how much of a change Hannay is looking to make to the Cowboys in such a short time and for that reason we are leaning towards the Sea Eagles in this one. With the return of Fonua-Blake as well as the need to put a couple convincing wins together to improve their chances of playing finals we think the Sea Eagles should have enough about them to cover this week's line too.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles -2.5 Line $1.95
Brisbane Broncos ($8.00) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.08)
Friday, 24th July 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
Traditionally one of the biggest games in the season between two heavyweight clubs in the Brisbane Broncos and the Melbourne Storm is brought to us in the prime time game on Friday night. Unfortunately for viewers and the competition these two sides couldn’t be further apart in terms of form as the Broncos are currently in turmoil and dwelling in 14th place on the table whilst the Storm are sitting pretty in 3rd place. The Broncos have been without a doubt the disappointment of the season as they have won just one from their last seven games and are coming off a 48-0 loss to the Tigers in wet weather. Their task doesn’t get any easier this week too as they take on a Storm side who hold the last 7 wins against them, including having not lost to them at Suncorp Stadium in over 9 years. The Storm are also one of the form teams of the competition with 4 wins in a row and they will fancy their chances against what looks a lost Brisbane side. As a result of the Storm's strong form they have named the same team from last week's 46-10 victory over the Titans with Suliasi Vunivalu named on the extended bench as he looks to return from injury. On the other hand Broncos coach Anthony Seibold has finally swung the selection axe in making a host of changes to his side. In the backs Anthony Milford will move to fullback with youngster Tesi Niu out of the side, Brodie Croft will shift to five eight as Tom Dearden comes into halfback, Kotoni Staggs & Herbie Farnworth return at centre & wing respectively with Richie Kennar, Jamayne Isaako and Corey Oates all out. In the forwards Corey Paix starts at hooker for the suspended Isaac Luke, Tevita Pangai-Junior & Joe Ofahengaue start in the back row with Ben Te’o on the bench and Tom Gamble & Rhys Kennedy join the bench. Despite these wholesale changes it is hard to see Brisbane putting up any sort of fight against a Storm side who have had the wood over them even when Brisbane have been a top four side. Add to the fact that Brisbane have been beaten by more than this week’s line 4 times already this year and that the Storm beat them by 36 points at Suncorp last year then we are happy to take the Storm with the line for this one.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm -19.5 Line $1.85
New Zealand Warriors ($10.00) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.05)
Saturday, 25th July 3:00pm, Central Coast Stadium
Saturday footy kicks off with the New Zealand Warriors taking on the Sydney Roosters up at Central Coast Stadium. With both teams coming off losses last week there will be an extra incentive to win this week as the Roosters look to stay in the fight for a top 4 spot whilst the Warriors want to keep themselves out of the wooden spoon battle. Last week the Roosters put in a largely uncharacteristic performance in both attack and defence as they made 14 errors, missed 23 tackles, completed at only 66% and went down 24-20 to the Raiders in a grand final rematch. For the Warriors they put in one of their worst performances of the season as the Sharks ran riot in scoring 46 points as they managed to score only 10 points thanks to 14 errors and 37 missed tackles. As a result Warriors coach Todd Payten has made a couple of changes in light of both poor form and injuries. Adam Pompey comes in at centre for Patrick Herbert, Karl Lawton comes in at hooker for the injured Wayde Egan, Agnatius Paasi is replaced by Jazz Tevaga at lock, Jack Hetherington starts at prop, Eliesa Katoa takes Adam Blair’s spot in the back row as he moves to the bench and is joined by Chanel Harris-Tavita and Lachlan Burr. On the other hand the Roosters are strengthened by the return of Nat Butcher from a rib injury but will be without Angus Crichton who is out with a knee injury and is replaced by Mitch Aubusson in the back row. Despite this the Roosters are still heavy favourites for this week's clash and on the back of two straight victories against the Warriors it looks like it could be another easy victory for them. One area of the market that does appear to have a bit of value is the total points market for this clash. In their last 5 meetings the total points has only exceeded this number once and with the likelihood of the Roosters focusing on their defence this week, after a poor showing last week, then we will lean towards the unders in what could be a one way game to the Roosters.
Recommended Bet: Under 45.5 Total Points $1.88
Cronulla Sharks ($1.80) vs St. George Illawarra ($2.02)
Saturday, 25th July 5:30pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
One of two Saturday games that plays a huge importance in determining the race for the top 8 as the 9th placed Cronulla Sharks take on the rejuvenated 11th placed St. George Illawarra Dragons at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. Both teams are on the outskirts of the 8 as the Sharks are missing out only on points difference whilst the Dragons are one win out of the 8 after starting the season 0-4. Since then the Dragons have looked a completely different side and this was highlighted by a gritty win against the Bulldogs last week where they trailed 22-10 with just over 15 minutes left on the clock only to run away 28-22 winners. Similarly for the Sharks they have been in much better form in recent weeks and their 46-10 victory against the Warriors from last week was a much needed win after their capitulation against the Panthers the week before. The Sharks will also have revenge on their minds as the Dragons ran away 30-16 winners in round 5, a clash where the Sharks made a huge 15 errors and missed 46 tackles. This week sees both sides make minimal changes with the Dragons only change being Tyrell Fuimaono moving into the back row as Tariq Sims is suspended and Jacob Host joins the bench. For the Sharks both Briton Nikora and Scott Sorensen are out of the starting side due to suspension and injury respectively as Toby Rudolf moves into the lock position, Siosifa Talakai comes into the back row position and Jack Williams & Teig Wilton join the bench. These changes highlight an issue that may just undo the Sharks in this contest as Nikora & Sorensen join Matt Moylan & Andrew Fifita on the sidelines in a huge test to their depth, especially with the Dragons only missing Sims. With this in mind as well as the Dragons win against the Sharks from earlier this year and the fact that the Dragons have taken top teams such as the Roosters & Raiders to the wire whilst also beating the Sea Eagles and the Bulldogs then we are leaning towards the Dragons with the line in what should be a cracking game.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons +1.5 Line $1.95
Canberra Raiders ($1.52) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.55)
Saturday, 25th July 7:35pm, GIO Stadium
The final game on Saturday sees the 8th placed South Sydney Rabbitohs travel down south to GIO Stadium to take on the 6th placed Canberra Raiders in a largely important clash for both teams finals aspirations. Both teams sit just inside the top 8 and with a couple of teams breathing down their necks they will look to distance themselves with a win in this one. This game looks even more important for the Rabbitohs as they have managed only one win all year against fellow top 8 teams, with this being the Tigers, as many critics are questioning their ability to match it against the top teams. This criticism was highlighted last week in their 20-18 loss to the Knights, where they trailed 20-0 before putting on 18 points in the last 15 minutes only to fall just short. On the other hand the Raiders have overcome a mammoth list of injuries in recent weeks to secure a huge 24-20 win against the Roosters in what could be a season defining victory for a young team that will gain a lot of confidence from that win. As a result the only change to the Raiders side for this week has been Jordan Rapana moving into the centres, Semi Valemi onto the wing & Harley Smith-Shields comes onto the bench as Michael Oldfield is out with a hamstring injury. For the Rabbitohs they have lost a couple of key players in James Roberts & Ethan Lowe to long-term injuries but will be pleased to have Campbell Graham back, who will take Roberts centres spot whilst Bailey Sironen will move into the starting back row as Jack Johns joins the bench for his debut. In recent history both teams have alternated wins in winning 3 a piece from their last 6 with the Raiders boasting the last win when they defeated Souths 16-10 in last year's finals. Despite both teams missing a host of players we are leaning towards the Raiders on this one solely because they have proven they are still a force to be reckoned with in defeating the Roosters last week whilst the Rabbitohs have been unable to match it with top 8 teams so far this year. For a little bit of extra value the last 3 games between these sides have been decided by 12 points or less so we will lean towards the Raiders by 1-12 in Saturday’s final game.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $3.00
Newcastle Knights ($1.15) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($5.50)
Sunday, 26th July 2:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Sunday’s first game sees the Newcastle Knights take on the Canterbury Bulldogs at McDonald Jones Stadium in the first of two potentially lopsided matches on Sunday. The Knights will be looking for back-to-back wins for the first time in over 2 months after alternating wins & losses over previous weeks but they will be confident in doing so as they come up against a Canterbury side that sit on a 6 game losing streak. During this losing streak the Bulldogs have largely looked lost in attack & defence but last week they showed a glimpse of their potential as they led the Dragons 22-10 with 15 minutes to go, only to capitulate due to some costly errors. Despite this there were signs that caretaker coach Steve Georgallis has made some improvements to the side but he faces a much tougher prospect this week against a Knights side that were 20-18 victors against the 8th placed Rabbitohs last week. This win was on the back of a commanding opening 50 minutes where they led 20-0 and coach Adam O’Brien will be asking for an 80 minute performance from his side this week. On the back of their commanding opening 50 minutes last week O’Brien has named the same 17 from last week's victory in what is a close to full strength Newcastle side. For the Bulldogs they welcome back Jake Averillo at centre as Marcelo Montoya shifts out to the wing, Christian Crichton drops out of the side and Brandon Wakeham replaces Sauaso Sue on the bench. In recent history between these two sides the Bulldogs have been the better side in winning 3 of their last 4 meetings, including a 20-14 victory last year at McDonald Jones Stadium, but with the contrasting form of both sides from this season it’s hard to see anything but a Knights victory. With the Knights showing their attacking potential throughout the first 50 minutes last week against a much stronger side then we are predicting a big win to them and with the Bulldogs inability to shut down opposition fullbacks (think James Tedesco’s 3 tries & Matt Dufty’s 2 tries against them) then we are predicting Kalyn Ponga to have a field day and the Knights to send out a statement to the competition come Sunday.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights -16.5 $1.95
Gold Coast Titans ($5.50) vs Penrith Panthers ($1.15)
Sunday, 26th July 4:05pm, Cbus Super Stadium
The final game of the round sees a clash between the first placed Penrith Panthers and the 15th placed Gold Coast Titans up at Cbus Super Stadium. The Panthers, for the first time since their 2003 premiership winning season, sit alone at the top of the premiership table thanks to a streak of five consecutive wins against some of the toughest teams in the competition in the Storm, Tigers & Rabbitohs. Last week they escaped a small scare after trailing the Cowboys 10-4 early in the second half but an inspired performance from Nathan Cleary, in both attack and defence, allowed them to run away as 22-10 winners. On the other hand the Titans were humbled by the Storm as they went down 42-6 in an embarrassing defensive effort that was highlighted by 41 missed tackles and 8 penalties conceded. If they are to pull off a huge upset this week then the Titans will need to buck a trend of 5 losses from their last 6 meetings against the Panthers, although they can take confidence in the fact that their one win against them came last year at Cbus Super Stadium. Thankfully for the Titans they welcome back a couple of key players from injury this week with Dale Copley returning in the centres pushing Phillip Sami to the wing and Kevin Proctor returning in the back row as Beau Fermor drops out of the side. On the other hand the Panthers have lost a couple of key players as Dylan Edwards, Dean Whare & Api Koroisau are all out with injuries and are replaced by Caleb Aekins, Malakai Watene-Zelezniak and Mitch Kenny respectively. With these injuries in mind as well as the Panthers trait of winning by small margins (in their last five victories they have only won over 12 points once) then we are leaning towards the Titans with the large start for this week. Add to this the fact that in the last 3 games at Cbus Super Stadium the Panthers two wins have been by one point and that this is their first game out of Sydney since the competition restarted then we are happy to take the Titans with the start.
Recommended Bet: Gold Coast Titans +16.5 $1.85
