The Form Guide
Just when everything was starting to make sense, and the cream looked to have risen to the top, Round 21 came along and sent us all back to the drawing board. The Broncos, Dragons, Storm and Sharks all went down in upsets, The Roosters scraped through against the struggling Cowboys, and all of a sudden it is the South Sydney Rabbitohs who sit alone atop the NRL ladder. The Bunnies were outstanding against Melbourne, with their forwards laying a strong platform for their halves to play behind. Damien Cook was, as always, key to everything Souths did, and his scything runs from dummy half off the back of quick play the balls are the most dangerous in the game. He now has a mortgage on the Australian number 9 jumper, having returned from an excellent Origin series in even better form for club. The Storm are sweating on the fitness of their own hooker, but it looks like Cameron Smith will be cleared to play this weekend in a massive relief for the side. Melbourne will now know they need to muscle up in these big games to compete, but they won’t be overly worried by a loss, as long as it’s just the one.
The Dragons are now in all sorts of trouble, and are sliding down the ladder quickly. They currently sit 4th, but are on equal points with the Panthers, a team who’ve had their own share of dramas this week. Paul McGregor’s men have simply forgotten how to win, and despite the relatively close score line the Warriors never looked in real danger of losing to them. They will obviously still play finals football, but if they drop out of that top 4 they are little chance of progressing very far. The Warriors’ win meant they jumped back to level points with Brisbane and Cronulla, and kept the Tigers two wins out of the 8, and with close to a full complement available again they will cause some damage on the run home and in the finals. Brisbane and Cronulla, though, will have done some soul searching this week. The Sharks were in the fight against Manly, and it was only a piece of Daly Cherry-Evans brilliance off the left boot that grabbed the win, but these are the games they need to win to push up into the top 4. The Broncos, on the other hand, were simply atrocious against the Bulldogs, and this time they can’t even blame their much maligned halves. The forward pack, apparently the best young forward pack in the league, was bullied into submission by a Bulldogs pack who simply wanted it more. This will be a harsh lesson for the young Broncos, who will now know they cannot go into any game with anything less than 100% commitment, or they will be dominated. It may be too little too late for this though, as they look unlikely to make a run for the top 4 in this kind of form.
All of the talk this week, though, has been about the Panthers’ sacking of coach Anthony Griffin. It seems remarkable that a coach who is in the process of taking his team to their third consecutive finals appearance, and currently sits in 5th position, would be on the way out the door, but clearly Phil Gould wasn’t happy with what he was seeing, and didn’t want to wait until the season was over to make the announcement. Anthony Griffin hasn't missed the chance to fire back, though, and it will be interesting to see how Gould looks coming out of this fiasco. The door is apparently open for Ivan Cleary to join his son Nathan, but the Wests Tigers don't look like they'll be backing down any time soon. This can only get messier from here, but the Panthers players need to get their minds on the job quickly, because they are absolutely in the hunt this year if they can hit top form. If Gus has cost his team a premiership with disruption, there should be serious questions asked at the foot of the mountains.
The Big Games
The Jonathan Thurston farewell tour rolls on this week, with Queensland rivals the Broncos travelling to Townsville on Thursday night. This is sure to be an emotional evening, with the close bond and shared history of these teams and players. Fans should appreciate these last few weeks of watching Thurston play live, and though he is not quite the force he was, he can still pull a rabbit out of the hat, as he has the last couple of weeks. In terms of the premiership race, there is plenty on the line here, with the Broncos absolutely in a must win situation. After their abysmal performance last week, expect a big bounce back, particularly from the forward pack. Darius Boyd has been moved back to fullback, with Jamayne Isaako shifted to the wing and young Gehamat Shibasaki given an opportunity in the centres. The Cowboys are outsiders here, but on paper they have some key advantages over the Broncos, who are missing a number of key forwards, including Josh McGuire who has been suspended for his hair pull last week. If the big North Queensland forwards can get over the top of this young Brisbane pack, Thurston might be able to given his state rivals one more reminder about how good he can be.
The match of the round, though, is undoubtedly the Rabbitohs hosting the Roosters on Friday night. In knocking over the Storm last week, Souths rediscovered what was woring so well for them during their nine match winning streak. Big forwards, running hard, and small, fast halves and hooker playing quickly off the back of them. This puts all of the pressure on the Roosters' pack. The development of their young forwards has been a highlight this year, a player like Victor Radley is a great example. He is versatile, plays with no fear, and will rip into this big Souths pack like he was born to do it. The Chooks have an advantage out wide, but the likes of Latrell Mitchell and James Tedesco won't have much room to move if the Burgess brothers are dominating up front. Luke Keary is still sidelined for he Roosters, giving Ryan Matterson another opportunity to partner Cooper Cronk in the halves.
The Panthers, Warriors and Dragons will all start favourites against teams outside the top 8, but as we have seen that does little to guarantee a win. Each game will be crucial for those teams, who either need to steady the ship or get some form back on the board. If history proves anything, it is that teams who lose a coach inevitably play well the week after, so maybe Penrith a the sure things of the weekend. The final game of the round sees the Storm meet the Sharks, and both teams will be unhappy after getting beaten last week. It's very difficult to get a read on the form line of the Sharks, whereas the Storm look like last week was just a speed bump. If the Sharks can spring an upset here, though, premiership markets will get quite a shakeup.
Predictions
Brisbane are sure to bounce back this week, but the Cowboys will have all the motivation in the world to spring an upset, so back the North Queenslanders in this one. The Warriors will beat the Knights in New Zealand, while the Rabbitohs are in slightly better form than the Roosters, and should win in a tight one. The Panthers will be playing for caretaker coach Cameron Ciraldo, and will pull the Titans' pants down, while you can toss a coin between the Sea Eagles and the Bulldogs. Perhaps the Dogs can't be that good two weeks in a row, so its Manly here. The Eels will ride the resurgence in Jarryd Hayne's form to upset the Dragons, The Tigers will beat the Raiders in Canberra, and the Storm will bounce back to beat the Sharks.
Best Bet
There are a couple of outsiders this week that look like they could cause an upset, with the Cowboys, Eels and Tigers standing out. Despite this, you can't ignore the team who has just lost a coach, so it's the Panthers -7.5 at $1.90 that is our best bet of the week.
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