NRL Round 22 Preview
Round 21 didn’t disappoint as last years grand finalists both sent out statements with big wins over their top 4 rivals whilst a number of teams look to make a late run towards the top 8. Read on as we preview a number of important games from teams in the 7th-11th sports and cast our eye over how we think they will play out.
Manly Sea Eagles ($1.31) vs Wests Tigers ($3.40)
Thursday, 15th August 7:50pm, Lottoland
The first game of the round is brought to us from Lottoland as the Wests Tigers take on the Manly Sea Eagles with both teams desperate to bounce back from shock losses in their last starts. Last round saw both the Sea Eagles and the Tigers fall at the hands of opponents who many tipped them to defeat as the Warriors defeated the Sea Eagles 24-16 whilst the Bulldogs knocked off the Tigers 18-16 after an agonising last minute conversion was missed by young winger Paul Momirovski. This week sees both coaches make a number of changes too with the Sea Eagles losing impressive centre Brad Parker and back rower Curtis Sironen, who is in the middle of one of his best seasons to date, to injury as they are replaced by Brendan Elliott and Jack Gosiewski. For the Tigers will also be without some pivotal players as captain Moses Mbye, veteran hooker Robbie Farah and Luke Garner are all out due to both injury and suspension and youngsters Tommy Talau and Jacob Liddle as well as veteran Chris McQueen come into the side. To add to the spice of this game is the fact that the Tigers are currently on a 4 game winning streak against the Sea Eagles, which includes a 20-6 victory over them in round one of this year and the Sea Eagles will be hoping that the inclusion of Tom Trbojevic to their side can help them break a concerning slide against their Sydney rivals. This time round we see a different Sea Eagles side as they have Trbojevic back in the side as well as boasting a seriously impressive home record for 2019, as they won 7 of their possible 10 games and have done so by an average winning margin of 14 points. With this in mind as well as the big outs for the Tigers we are leaning towards the Sea Eagles to cover the line and defeat the Tigers in convincing fashion.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles -8.5 Line $1.90
Gold Coast Titans ($3.10) vs Parramatta Eels ($1.36)
Friday, 16th August 6:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Fridays 6pm game sees the struggling Gold Coast Titans welcome the high flying Parramatta Eels to Cbus Super Stadium as they will be desperate to snap a 7 game losing streak against a side who have won their last 3 matches. To make matters worse is that in these 3 matches the Eels have considerably improved their defence as they conceded an average of just over 13 points per game, which is well down on their season average of just over 20 points. As a result the Titans will have their work cut out for them as they have managed only 15 points per game during the same period and caretaker coach will be hoping that some added stability to their side, with only one change this week, will help his young team build some confidence as they look to salvage something from their disappointing season. Eels coach Brad Arthur has also followed suit by making just the one change with Kane Evans returning to the side after a bout of food poisoning last week with Daniel Alvaro moving to the bench and Tepai Moeroa being dropped to the reserves. The last time these two teams met was back in round 21 of last year with the Eels running out 28-12 victors as they have won 3 of their last four meetings between the teams but haven’t won up on the Gold Coast sine 2014. With this in mind as well as the Eels shaky away form, which has seen them win only 4 of their last 10 away games we are leaning towards a low scoring affair between the two teams.
Recommended Bet: Under 44.5 Points $1.82
Brisbane Broncos ($1.70) vs Penrith Panthers ($2.15)
Friday, 16th August 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium
Friday’s prime time game has finals footy written all over it with both the Brisbane Broncos and the Penrith Panthers well and truly locked in a battle for one of the bottom places in the top 8 as we near the end of the season. Both teams are also reeling off impressive wins too, as the Broncos scored a last gasp victory in the Queensland derby thanks to a 79th minute Jake Turpin try whilst the Panthers shocked the Sharks with a 26-20 win without James Maloney as they bounced back from two consecutive losses. This week the Panthers will be pleased to welcome back James Maloney as he returns from suspension as well as the inclusion of Isaah Yeo to the starting side after as he moves up from the bench. For the Broncos they have named the same 17 as last weeks victory over the Cowboys but it will be important to watch the status of veteran forwards Matt Gillett and Alex Glenn as they have been named on the extended bench in hope that they can fully recover to be included in the side. These inclusions could swing the contest and the Broncos will be hoping that with or without them they can continue their impressive form against the Panthers, which has seen them win their last 3 meeting as well as a 50-18 thumping of them in round 19 of last year. Among these losses is the fact that the Panthers haven’t won at Suncorp Stadium since 2016 and with their away record sitting at 4 wins from 9 games this season then it leads us to think the Broncos are a much safer bet than the Panthers in this clash.
Recommended Bet: Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $2.70
Newcastle Knights ($1.50) vs North Queensland Cowboys ($2.55)
Saturday, 17th August 3:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
The first game of Saturday sees two teams who many tipped to return to the finals in 2019 come together as they sit 3 and 5 points outside of the top 8 with only 4 games left in the season. Unfortunately for both of these sides, the Newcastle Knights and the North Queensland Cowboys, finals looks a distant reality for them at the moment and they will be hoping that a big win can spark some life in their fading seasons. As a result Newcastle coach has recalled Connor Watson into the starting side as hooker, with Danny Levi being dropped to the reserves, Herman Ese’ese comes onto the bench and Josh King replaces Tim Glasby who is out with concussion. For the Cowboys coach Paul Green has been vocal this week in stating that his side have no excuses for their form and he will be pleased to welcome back Jordan McLean who replaces Josh McGuire in the front row as well as Jordan Kahu and Reuben Cotter who come in for Gideon Gela-Mosby and Peter Hola respectively. In recent history the Cowboys have dominated this contest in winning the last four matches by a combined total of 60 points as well as not having lost in Newcastle since 2014 but with the shaky form of both sides in recent weeks it is hard to get a read on which team will be more confident than the other. The interesting stat has been the total points market in their last 4 meetings. Of these games the total points has exceeded this weeks total points market in 3 of these matches and with this in mind as well as the unconvincing form of both sides then we are leaning towards another high scoring game that could go either way.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Over 40.5 $1.88
Melbourne Storm ($1.42) vs Canberra Raiders ($2.85)
Saturday, 17th August 5:30pm, AAMI Park
Arguably the game of the round is brought to us at AAMI Park as the Canberra Raiders travel down to take on the Melbourne Storm in a game that has plenty of influence on the make up of the top four. The Raiders will be eager to bounce back as they suffered their first loss in over a month as they went down 22-18 to the defending premiers and it will be a true test of character if they can bounce back with a win against the top of the table Storm. For the Storm they are flying high after dismantling the Rabbitohs by 26-16 as they cemented themselves as the team to beat coming into the pointy end of the 2019 season. As a result coach Craig Bellamy has made just the two changes to his side this week, with the return of Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen to the 17 at the expense of Nicho Hynes and Billy Walters. For the Raiders they have followed suit in making two changes with Joey Leilua returning from an extended break due to a neck injury as Nick Cotric moves to the wing and Bailey Simonsson moves to the bench with Silvia Havili being dropped to the reserves. Despite these changes this game appears to be an uphill battle for the Raiders as the Storms home record as been impressive throughout 2019, with only the 2 losses, and to make matters worse the Storm are currently riding a 5 game winning streak against the Raiders, which includes having not lost at AAMI Park to them since 2014. With this in mind as well as the unknown factor of how the Raiders will bounce back from coming up against the top two teams in the competition in consecutive weeks leads us to think that the Storm will come out on top, albeit in a much closer game than the market expects.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.75
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.30) vs Canterbury Bulldogs ($3.45)
Saturday, 17th August 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium
An important game for both sides as the Canterbury Bulldogs take on the South Sydney Rabbitohs with the Rabbitohs looking to bounce back from a loss to the Storm whilst the Bulldogs will be eager to continue a resurgent period of form that has seen them win 3 of their last 5. If the Bulldogs are to cause another upset then much will depend on their defence and if it is anything like what we have sen in the last 5 rounds then South Sydney could be on for a much harder game than they expect as the Bulldogs are averaging only 16 points per game. For the Rabbitohs they will be eager to hold off the challenge coming from the Sea Eagles and the Eels for their fourth placed spot on the ladder and will be boosted by the return of Sam Burgess, Jayden Su’A and Braidon Burns who all return to the side at the expense of Mark Nicholls, Corey Allan and Kyle Turner. On the other hand the Bulldogs will keep faith in the same 17 that has seen them bounce back to form as Kieran Foran still sits on the sidelines with a hamstring injury that has seen him miss the last 6 rounds. In recent history these two teams have played some heated matches as the Rabbitohs boast the last 4 wins against the Bulldogs including a 14-6 win from round 6 of this year. This win saw the Rabbitohs continue an impressive defensive record against the Bulldogs as they have averaged only 10 points conceded per game in their last 4 wins against them. With this in mind and the fact that the Rabbitohs have only averaged only 20 points per game across their last 3 matches then we are leaning towards the Rabbitohs winning in a low scoring affair.
Recommended Bet: Total Points Under 38.5 $1.88
Sydney Roosters ($1.18) vs New Zealand Warriors ($4.75)
Sunday, 18th August 2:00pm, Sydney Cricket Ground
The penultimate game of the round looks an interesting game on paper with both teams coming off important victories for their 2019 seasons and will be hoping to pick up where they left off in their clash at the Sydney Cricket Ground. The Warriors will be particularly happy with their 24-16 victory against the Sea Eagles as they completed at 83% and had only 43% of the ball but still managed to upset the previously high flying Sea Eagles and another defensive performance like this will go a long way towards upsetting the Roosters. Standing in their way although will be a side who are coming off an impressive 22-18 against the 3rd placed Raiders and their confidence will be boosted by the impending return of captain Boyd Cordner, who has been named on the extended bench as he looks to return from a calf injury. For the Warriors coach Stephen Kearney has kept faith in the same 17 who got the job done last week but it will be important to watch the status of mid-season signing Kodi Nikorima, who has also been named on the extended bench as he looks to return from an ankle injury. Surprisingly the Warriors are one of the few sides who have a positive record against the Roosters as they have won 4 of their last 5 meetings and they will be looking to continue their record of having not lost against the Roosters in Sydney since 2015. Despite this we can still see the Roosters winning as the Warriors won’t be able to miss 44 tackles like they did last week and not be punished on the scoreboard against the Roosters and we are confident that the Roosters have the quality to see off the challenge of the New Zealanders.
Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters 1-12 $3.00
Cronulla Sharks ($1.35) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons ($3.15)
Sunday, 18th August 4:05pm, PointsBet Stadium
The final game of the round sees two Sydney rivals in the Cronulla Sharks and the St. George Illawarra Dragons clash in what looks to be an intriguing and heated match. To add to the importance of this clash is the fact that the Sharks are now outside the 8 as a result of their loss to the Panthers and they will be coming up against a Dragons side who should have received a much needed confidence boost in their 40-28 win against the Titans from last round. In this match the Dragons dominated the contest in the middle of the field with Paul Vaughan running for a whopping 237 metres and another performance like this will be needed if they are to match a young but big Cronulla forward pack that despite being without Andrew Fifita are still a force to be reckoned with. This change isn't the only one that Sharks coach John Morris has made with the recall of star fullback Matt Moylan from a concussion injury as Josh Dugan moves to the centres and Josh Morris to the wing. The Dragons have also made one change of their own with Tariq Sims out for the season after undergoing groin surgery with Luciano Leilua coming into the starting side and Blake Lawrie coming onto the bench. These changes shape an important battle of the middle forwards and the Dragons will be hoping for a much improved performance from their forwards as in their last meeting against the Sharks they well and truly lost the battle with only 3 Dragons players running past 100 metres. This meeting saw the Sharks run out 22-9 victors against the Dragons and with their season effectively on the line we are leaning towards the added weight of importance on this game to get them over the line on the weekend.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $2.80
