NRL Round 21 Preview
Round 20 saw a number of the leading teams flex their muscles in dominant displays whilst a number of teams whose hopes of playing finals were shattered with disappointing performances. Read on this week as we review each teams efforts from last week and preview their round 21 fixtures.
North Queensland Cowboys ($2.00) vs Brisbane Broncos ($1.80)
Thursday, 8th August 7:50pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
The biggest of the Queensland derbies is brought to us with the first game of the round as the Brisbane Broncos travel up to Townsville to take on the North Queensland Cowboys in a bid to keep their slim finals hopes alive. Last week both teams were completely embarrassed in their performances as the Cowboys went down 28-4 to the Wests Tigers whilst the Broncos were destroyed 40-4 by the Storm at their home ground. In the Cowboys performance they simply couldn’t hold onto the ball as they completed at 65% thanks to a whopping 12 errors and 32 missed tackles, which led to the Tigers racing out to an 16-0 lead by half time. Similarly to the Cowboys, the Broncos were outclassed by the Storm as the Storm dominated possession with 58% and showed their experience over a young Broncos side. This week Cowboys coach Paul Green has made one change by calling in Gideon Gela-Mosby onto the wing in place of Murray Taulagi whilst the Broncos welcome back Tevita Pangai Junior as Alex Glenn moves into the centres and Xavier Coates drops out of the side. The last time these two teams met was back in round 2 where the Broncos ran out 29-10 victors thanks to a dominant performance from Pangai Junior. Over the long term history between these two teams it is interesting to note that in the last 4 regular seasons either side has shared one win a piece and with the Cowboys winning 7 of the last 8 matches played between the two sides in Townsville we are predicting them to add to that tally again come Thursday night.
Recommended Bet: North Queensland Cowboys $2.00
New Zealand Warriors ($2.90) vs Manly Sea Eagles ($1.42)
Friday, 9th August 6:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium
Friday’s first game sees the high flying and arguably one of the form teams of the competition in the Manly Sea Eagles travel to Mt Smart Stadium to take on a New Zealand Warriors side whose slim finals hopes could be taken away from them with a loss in this match. Last week the Warriors were embarrassed by the Canberra Raiders at home as they went down 46-12 as they only managed 40% possession and missed a humongous 58 tackles. To make matters worse is that they are coming up against a Manly side who have won their last 3 matches against quality opponents and already have the wood on the Warriors from their 46-12 win over them from round 3 at Christchurch Stadium. This game was dominated by Sea Eagles fullback Tom Trbojevic who managed 2 tries, 2 try assists, 3 line breaks and 9 tackle breaks as his win percentage currently sits at 100% from all games that he has participated in this year. For the Warriors this week they have been forced into a couple of changes as Kodi Nikorima is out with an ankle injury, which sees Chanel Harris-Tevita move into the halves and hooker Karl Lawton is out with a shoulder injury as Adam Keighran comes onto the bench. For the Sea Eagles they have named the same 17 from recent weeks as they are brewing with confidence and look to continue a concerning slide for the Warriors that has seen them win only 4 of their 10 home games from this season. With this in mind we are confident of the Sea Eagles securing another victory and doing it in a convincing fashion too.
Recommended Bet: Manly Sea Eagles -6.5 Line $1.90
Penrith Panthers ($2.35) vs Cronulla Sharks ($1.60)
Friday, 9th August 7:55pm, Panthers Stadium
This match is the first of a number of matches that have a real finals feeling about it as the resurgent Cronulla Sharks take on the Penrith Panthers with both teams locked on the same number of points in 7th and 9th spots respectively. Over the last two weeks these two teams have almost switched form lines with the Sharks winning their last 2 after a 5 game losing streak whilst the Panthers have lost their last 2 after an impressive 7 game winning streak. As a result this game could make or break either teams charge to the finals and the Panthers will have to do so without star half and former Sharks player James Maloney who is out with suspension. This doesn’t bode well for the Panthers as their backup half Jarome Luai is out with an eye injury and hooker Wade Egan is out with a shoulder injury and it remains to be seen who replaces Maloney but Sione Katoa and Spencer Leniu come onto the bench for the latter two. For the Sharks Josh Dugan is forced to shift to fullback as Matt Moylan is out due to concussion protocols, which means that Sosaia Feki will start on the wing as Josh Morris moves into his more familiar position of centre. The last time that these two teams met was back in round 6 when the Sharks stormed home from 20-6 down to win 24-20 as they extended their winning streak to 5 games over the Panthers. This winning streak is also highlighted by the Sharks having not lost at the Panthers home ground since 2015 and with the key outs for the Panthers this week we are predicting another Sharks win as they storm towards a finals berth.
Recommended Bet: Cronulla Sharks 1-12 $2.80
St. George Illawarra Dragons ($1.30) vs Gold Coast Titans ($3.50)
Saturday, 10th August 3:00pm, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
A battle of two of the most disappointing teams of 2019 is brought to you in the first game on Saturday as the 16th placed Gold Coast Titans travel to Netstrata Jubilee Stadium to take on the 14th placed St. George Illawarra Dragons. At the start of the season both of these teams were tipped to push towards the middle half of the table with their strong forward packs and exciting young talent but neither have delivered and this game could potentially shape as a decider for the wooden spoon as a Titans win would see them only 2 points behind the Dragons, albeit with a massive points differential to make up. If the Titans are to pull this off then it is going to require a mammoth improvement from their 58-6 loss to the Roosters last week as they looked completely disinterested and could only manage 1240 run metres in comparison to the Roosters 1983 run metres. Thankfully for the Titans they welcome back representative forward Jai Arrow from an ankle injury as well as AJ Brimson who takes the place of fullback Michael Gordon whilst Anthony Don is dropped for up and coming youngster Jesse Arthars on the wing. For the Dragons they are coming off a 12-4 loss to the Eels where their attack lacked structure and cohesion and as a result James Graham has shifted back to his more familiar position of prop with Blake Lawrie dropping out, Patrick Kaufusi moving into the second row and Jackson Ford makes his NRL debut off the bench. The last two times that these two teams have met the Dragons have won by a combined score of 96-24 and with the Titans conceding 130 points across their last 3 games we are predicting another dominant Dragons victory.
Recommended Bet: St. George Illawarra Dragons -9.5 Line $1.90
Parramatta Eels ($1.64) vs Newcastle Knights ($2.25)
Saturday, 10th August 5:30pm, Bankwest Stadium
A massive test for both clubs this week as the Parramatta Eels continue to strive for a top four spot whilst the Newcastle Knights are fighting for their season as they have lost their last 5 matches in concerning fashion. In the midst of these 5 losses has been the struggling Knights defence who have conceded an average of 30 points per match in their last 5 games whilst only managing to score just over 14 points per match in this period. This was highlighted by their 30-6 loss at the hand of the Sea Eagles last week where they managed only 72% completion and missed 37 tackles. Surprisingly Knights coach Nathan Brown has stuck with the same 17 from last week as he looks to give them a shot at redemption and Eels coach Brad Arthur has followed suit in naming the same 17 that downed the Dragons 12-4 away from home as they now sit on a 2 game winning streak and only two wins outside of the top four. The last time that these two teams met was back in round 7 where the Knights ran out 28-14 victors in a result them stretch their winning streak to 4 games against the Eels including having won 11 of their last 13 against them too. This poses concern for Eels fans but they can take confidence in their home record of 6 wins from their last 7 games at Bankwest Stadium. Despite the Eels dominance at Bankwest Stadium we are leaning towards the records of the Knights against the Eels and their do-or-die attitude for this game to help get them across the line.
Recommended Bet: Newcastle Knights $2.25
Canterbury Bulldogs ($2.60) vs Wests Tigers ($1.50)
Saturday, 10th August 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium
The Tigers finals destiny is in their own hands now as they find themselves sitting in 8th spot thanks to a 28-4 win against the Cowboys last week and they will be tested this week as they come up against a resurgent Bulldogs side who have managed 3 wins from their last 5 games. Amongst these wins for the Bulldogs was an impressive 16-8 victory against the Panthers last week where they had only 43% of possession but still managed to shut out a Panthers side thanks to some strong defensive efforts. The Bulldogs can take confidence from this and as a result their only change is a forced one with Adam Elliot out with a finger injury as Chris Smith moves into the lock position and Raymond Faitala-Mariner comes onto the bench. For the Tigers, coach Michael Maguire has stuck strong with the same 17 who got the job done for him last week as they look to hold onto their spot within the top 8. To add extra incentive to the Tigers is the fact that the Bulldogs defeated them 22-8 in round 3 of this year as they extended their winning streak to 2 against them and 4 of their last 6 games. Despite the impressive record of the Bulldogs against the Tigers it is hard to see them winning if they can only manage 43% possession as we saw what the Tigers can do when they are gifted possession after last weeks victory and we are predicting a 3rd Tigers victory in as many weeks.
Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers -4.5 Line $1.90
Canberra Raiders ($2.00) vs Sydney Roosters ($1.80)
Sunday, 11th August 2:00pm, GIO Stadium
The first of arguably the best day of NRL that we’ve had all year is upon us with the two fixtures providing us an almost exact preview of what the first week of the finals would like for the top 4 teams if the season finished right now. The 2pm game sees the 2nd placed Sydney Roosters travel down to GIO Stadium to take on the 3rd placed Canberra Raiders with both teams riding 3 and 4 game win streaks respectively. For the Roosters their wins may have come against lesser teams in the Knights, Bulldogs and Titans but they have come in devastating fashion by scoring 126 points and only conceding 28 points across these 3 victories. To add to the strength of this Roosters side is the inclusion of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves who comes in at the expense of Lindsay Collins, with Zane Tetevano shifting to the bench. Despite the strength of this Roosters side the Raiders can’t be discounted as they have defeated the Dragons, the Tigers, the Warriors and ended the Panthers 7 game winning streak amongst their own 4 game winning streak. In doing this they have cemented themselves as genuine premiership contenders and will be delighted with the return of Joseph Leilua, Nick Cotric and Ryan Sutton to the side, who all boast a wealth of experience and talent. The last time these two teams met was at magic round in round 9 at Suncorp Stadium where the Roosters led 30-6 at one stage to only win by 30 points to 24. This win ended a 3 game losing streak against the Raiders and despite this win the Roosters are still yet to win in Canberra since 2010. This stat, the key inclusions for the Raiders and the fact that the Roosters are still missing NSW blues captain Boyd Cordner, club captain Jake Friend and star forward Siosiua Taukeiaho leads us to think that the Raiders will maintain their impressive record against the Roosters in Canberra.
Recommended Bet: Canberra Raiders 1-12 $3.20
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($2.60) vs Melbourne Storm ($1.50)
Sunday, 11th August 4:05pm, Central Coast Stadium
The final game of the round sees the first place Melbourne Storm travel to Central Coast Stadium to take on the fourth placed South Sydney Rabbitohs in what bids as a critical game for the Rabbitohs top 4 aspirations. The reason for this is the Rabbitohs have been struggling due to a number of injuries over recent weeks and they have managed only 3 wins from their last 8 starts and have an in form Manly Sea Eagles team just 2 points behind them on the table. For the Rabbitohs they will be hoping for a severely improved performance from their 39-24 loss to the Sharks where they completed only 65% of their sets and made a whopping 14 errors. On the other hand the Storm bounced back from their 1 point loss to the Sea Eagles by embarrassing the Broncos 40-4 last week to maintain their 6 point buffer at the top of the table. As a result the only change that Storm coach Craig Bellamy has made is a forced one with Christian Welch out with a season ending knee injury and Tui Kamikamica replacing him in the forwards. For the Rabbitohs they have named the same 17 from last weeks loss and will be pleased that star forward Sam Burgess escaped a one match ban for his shot on Matt Moylan at the judiciary on Tuesday night. The last time these two teams met were in the finals of last year where the Storm won a 29-28 thriller as they improved their record of 7 wins out of their last 8 games against the Rabbitohs. With this stat in mind and the inconsistency of the Rabbitohs over recent weeks then we are confident the Storm can secure the win, albeit in a close encounter.
Recommended Bet: Melbourne Storm 1-12 $2.80
