NRL preview, Round 20
The Form Guide
The NRL top 8 has almost settled itself for 2018, but there was no shortage of talking points to come out of an almost unbelievable round of football. The Storm have jumped to the top of the ladder courtesy of their narrow victory over the Warriors, who now look a little vulnerable in 8th spot. The Storm are just so clinical, and thought they may not be quite the team they were this time last year, they will be extraordinarily difficult to beat in the big games. Melbourne are joined on 28 competition points by the Dragons and Rabbitohs, who had very different weekends. The Dragons, who needed to win, did, while the Rabbits, firm favourites and on a hot streak, didn’t. The Saints continued a season of misery for North Queensland, and it cannot be overstated how important this win was for the Red V after some recent stumbles. Souths could be forgiven for perhaps being a little complacent against the Tigers, and many will say this is the loss they had to have before reaching the finals. The proof in that theory will be how they bounce back this weekend. The Tigers, meanwhile, have now knocked off two of the top 2 teams in consecutive weeks, and have positioned themselves as the most likely of teams outside the 8 to make a late run.
The Roosters racked up a cricket score against the very disappointing Sea Eagles, and Trent Robinson will be hoping this proves to be the week things finally clicked for the Chooks. Again, we will learn more over the next couple of weeks, but this was an annihilation. The Sharks did enough to beat the Raiders, with a little help from the officials, and have firmly ensconced themselves in the top 8, while the Broncos claimed a big scalp by blowing the Panthers off the park in the first half in Brisbane. In doing so, Wayne Bennett has unlocked the secret to this team, and that is to play hard and fast through the middle, and give his halves licence to support and run. There will be mistakes, and it won’t necessarily win them the tight ones in the finals, but they have shown that they can blow teams off the park when it comes off.
Mitchell Pearce’s return for the Knights has left fans with a feeling of “What if…?”, knowing that a few less injuries, and a few more wins, could have had them in finals contention. The signs are all positive for 2019, though, with some more recruits arriving and another season under the belt of Kalyn Ponga. Back them to make the 8 next year now, the odds will only shorten from here.
The Big Games
The games only get bigger as we get closer to the finals, and there are some really important ones this weekend. We start on Thursday when the Broncos host the Sharks, and this will be a barnstormer. The Brisbane forward pack is coming into its own, and it meets one of the most experienced, quality packs in the competition. The battle up front, old vs young, will be intense, and whoever lays the best platform will undoubtedly give their backline the best chance to win. Matt Moylan has never played better at 5/8, and neither has Valentine Holmes at fullback. Jamayne Isaako holds his place at fullback for Brisbane, leaving skipper Darius Boyd in the centres, and unless injury strikes they will take this combination through to the finals.
On Saturday, Manly meet Penrith in a battle of two teams who copped some serious punishment the week before. While Manly’s season is over, this one will be intriguing for the way Penrith bounce back after their heavy loss to the Brisbane. Nathan Cleary had a quiet Origin series, and is nursing quite the representative hangover, so the pressure will be on James Maloney to get this team back on track. The big Penrith forwards, too, need to reassert their dominance after being out-enthused by the young Broncos. We will learn a lot about the Penrith season from this must win clash.
The weekend finishes with a bang on Sunday afternoon at Allianz Stadium, where the Roosters meet the Dragons in a game that will be fascinating to watch. Both teams will believe they got their seasons back on track last week, but it will be a false dawn for one of them after this one. The Chooks have transformed from looking slightly skinny in the forwards to now having a pack that is big, fast, and can leave Dylan Napa on the bench. Outside them, you won’t find a backline with more strike power, with Tedesco, Ferguson, Tupou, Mitchell and Manu all frighteningly hard to stop. But stop them the Dragons must, though punters aren’t liking their chances. These two teams love fighting out tough, close matches, so don’t expect a blow out.
Predictions
The Broncos start favourites against the Sharks on Thursday, and the home ground might be enough to get them home, so we’ll take Brisbane in a tight one. The Cowboys can’t take a trick at the moment, while the Knights are looking better each week, so it’s Newcastle here, while the resurgent Tigers will beat Canterbury in the second game. Penrith will bounce back against Manly, just because they have to, and the Rabbits will be too good for Parramatta after their shock loss last week. The Storm will be the Raiders at home, the Warriors will get over the Titans, while the Chooks will roast the Dragons on Sunday arvo.
Best Bet
It’s difficult to see how the Cowboys could start favourites against anyone, so the huge value on the Knights is impossible to ignore. It’s Newcastle head to head at $2.55 for our best bet of the week.
For the latest NRL odds, click here.
