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Round 18
The Form Guide
Only four games were played last weekend with the shortened round, but we were treated to some unbelievable results. The Storm conceded 30 points against the Dragons, but managed to rack up 52 of their own in a bizarre clash. Ultimately, it was the class of Cameron Smith that got Melbourne home in the last 20 minutes, again underlining the value of his representative retirement to the Storm. The absence of the Origin players was telling, and if the sides meet again this year it will be difficult to read too much into this result.
Dean Pay and Ricky Stuart rode an emotional roller-coaster on Saturday in one of the most amazing finishes we have ever seen. 3 tries in 6 minutes saw the Raiders steal this one at the death, highlighting everything that is good and bad about this Canberra team in 80 minutes. Their season hangs by a thread, and it will be interesting to see if this great escape means anything to their season when we get closer to finals. Unfortunately for them, it might all be too little too late.
The Warriors were near certainties to knock off an understrength Panthers, but Penrith surprised everyone by unveiling a star of the future and putting the cleaners through the Kiwis. Jarome Luai was unbelievable for Penrith, a Benji Marshall clone who Anthony Griffin will need to find a place in the team for after his Origin halves return. Finally, the Broncos turned it on to romp home over the Titans in one of their best wins for the season. Admittedly, the Titans were off, but Brisbane played with an energy we haven't seen this year, off the back of their dominant young forward pack. Perhaps they have finally unlocked the secret to their season.
The Big Games
This weekend starts off with a blockbuster out at Penrith, with the Panthers hosting the Sharks. Penrith's Origin stars will be rested, meaning young Luai will have another chance to impress his coach before Nathan Cleary returns. Valentine Holmes is backing up for the Sharks, and starts in the number 1 jumper, leaving Matt Moylan to continue his developing partnership in the halves with Chad Townsend. These are two of the best forward packs in the competition, and the clash up front will be worth the price of admission alone. With both sides fighting for a spot in the top 4, this one will be crucial.
The Battle of Brookvale returns on Saturday night, with Melbourne travelling to meet Manly. All eyes will be on Dylan Walker and Curtis Scott after their last clash, but for Craig Bellamy this will about regaining their starch in defence after last week's game of touch football. Daly Cherry-Evans will be feeling very comfortable in his skin after his brilliant performance in Origin 3, and his combination with the Trbojevic brothers will be crucial in this one.
The key game on Sunday sees Brisbane hosting the Warriors at Suncorp Stadium. The closeness of the top 8 means that the Warriors' loss to the Panthers last weekend has seen them slide to 8th spot, and another loss here will keep the door slightly ajar for the likes of the Raiders behind them. Punters have been waiting for the Kiwis to slip up, and they are clear outsiders in this one again. It's a dangerous game for the Broncos, though, who expect all of their Origin reps to be backing up. The pressure again will be on their halves, who still have huge question marks over their game management. The key will be for the forwards to play fast and straight, to let Nikorima and Milford play the ad lib football they love.
Following that one, the Dragons, who have given up top spot on the ladder to the Rabbitohs, take on the unpredictable Tigers at Jubilee Oval. Again, the Dragons need to right their ship after last week's blow-out, while the Tigers are still trying to work out how they are going to play with Robbie Farah and Moses Mbye in the line-up. If the Saints are serious title contenders, these are the types of games they need to win and win well. Their run for a top 2 spot starts with this one.
Predictions
The Panthers ($2.45) were outstanding last week, but the Sharks ($1.57) look so good on paper that it is hard to go past them in this one. Mitchell Pearce returns for the Knights ($2.10) but it won't be enough to get them over the Eels ($1.76), while the Rabbits ($1.27) will be top dogs against the broken Bulldogs ($3.80). Melbourne ($1.46) will be too strong for Manly ($2.70), while the Cowboys ($2.50) look good for a boilover over the ridiculous Raiders ($1.53). The Broncos ($1.61) will continue their run by beating the Warriors ($2.30) in Brisbane, and the Dragons ($1.35) will account for the Tigers ($3.20). Finally, the Roosters ($1.40) will be far too good for a disappointing Titans ($2.95).
Best Bet
There is value to be found in a few clashes this weekend, but Brisbane at home on Sunday afternoon are very hard to beat, so the Broncos half time-full time double at $2.25 is out best bet of the week.
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