Welcome to the biggest weekend of the NRL year. Yes, even bigger than Grand Final weekend, Preliminary Final weekend is the most important weekend in many players’ lives, because it presents them with the opportunity to make it through to the big dance. Falling at this final hurdle is heartbreaking, but win, and you jump on board a seven day roller coaster towards next Sunday. Strap yourselves in.
The Form Guide
It’s no coincidence that with only four teams left alive in the competition, that it’s the teams that filled the top 4 positions on the ladder that are still kicking. All year we have known the importance of finishing in the top 4, and the proof is in the pudding for all to see. Last weekend we lost the Panthers and the Dragons, two teams who had the opportunity to finish top 4 were it not for some late season stumbles. Those stumbles ultimately proved too much for them to overcome, as a couple of star playmakers failed to produce when their teams needed them the most.
James Maloney saved his worst game of the season for his last, leaving it Chad Townsend to seal the winner in his stead to send the Sharks through over the Panthers. Some at Penrith might be happy to just put this season to bed, such was the disarray they found themselves in at various times. An offseason to rebuild the club, without the prying eyes of the world, might be just what they need. They unearthed some stars, though, and Viliame Kikau has announced himself as a franchise backrower. Tyrone Peachey may or may not be at the foot of the mountains next year, and he potentially leaves a big utility-sized hole. For the Sharks, they looked like world beaters in the first half, and second rate after half time, until Valentine Holmes turned around his own game, and the result, with a heads up play off his own kickoff, and Townsend sealed the deal. An injury to skipper Paul Gallen is their biggest concern at the moment, though you would be a brave punter to back him to miss this huge clash on Friday.
Across town on Saturday night, we were witness to one of the great finals in NRL history, as Adam Reynolds took Ben Hunt to school in the final 10 minutes of the Rabbitohs’ one point victory over the Dragons. Hunt continues to show that he does not have the game management skills to get his teams home in the big games, and it undoubtedly would have been a different story had Gareth Widdop been available. Reynolds, on the other hand, has ice flowing through his veins, and his three field goals, as well as the clinical sets that got him into position, were exactly what finals football is all about. Greg Inglis has escaped a ban for his crusher tackle thanks to a lack of carry over points, and his inclusion is a huge relief for the Bunnies. The question must be asked, though, after two monumental finals games decided by a point, what do they have left in the tank?
The Big Games
The script could not have been written any more perfectly than the two match ups we have been presented with this week. We kick off on Friday night with a new modern rivalry, the Sharks travelling to Melbourne to meet the Storm. The Sharks have won 4 of their last 5 against Melbourne, including 2 at AAMI Park, so they will take no fears when they head south of the border. Paul Gallen has been named despite a shoulder concern, and he must be odds on to play, though Josh Dugan still looks unlikely to return. It’s all good news for the Storm, though, as Will Chambers returns from suspension and Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Ryan Hoffman come back onto the bench. Brodie Croft will retain his halfback spot after an electrifying display against the Bunnies, and he knows he has Cameron Munster beside him to take some playmaking pressure off. This is a fit, rested Storm team, which must be a concern to Sharks fans.
These two teams have a genuine dislike for each other, and it will be sure to add some spice in the early exchanges. The Storm are strong favourites, but it is extraordinarily difficult to split them. The influence of the respective fullbacks will be crucial, with Billy Slater playing his last game in Melbourne up against the Holmes, still the most in form player in the competition. Both teams are littered with match winners and premiership experience, so expect both to bring their best games. Perhaps the most intriguing match up will be the two five-eighths, with Cameron Munster taking on Matt Moylan. Munster is a lock for the Australian number 6 jumper, and he showed with his match winning field goal a fortnight ago that he is happy filling Cooper Cronk’s shoes in that respect too. Moylan had a troubled start to his stint in the Shire, but his last 6 weeks have been much better, and his performance against the Panthers was probably his best in blue and black. If the forward packs and the outside backs cancel each other out, perhaps it is these two who will decide this outcome.
If the Sharks and Melbourne are a modern rivalry, Saturday night sees us wind the clock back to the oldest rivalry in the book, as the Roosters and the Rabbitohs meet in the final match at Allianz Stadium before it is demolished. It has been a tumultuous week for the Rabbitohs, and Sam Burgess in particular, and it must have incredibly difficult to focus on the game. A controversy like this has the potential to galvanise a team, though, so don’t be surprised if it actually brings the best out of them. They bring an unchanged lineup from last week, a huge bonus at this time of year. The Roosters, like the Storm, are well rested, but there are a couple of significant outs for the Chooks. Dylan Napa is still on the sideline, and he is joined this week by Latrell Mitchell, whose record wasn’t as clean as Inglis’, meaning a one week suspension for his crusher tackle. Mitchell is a huge loss for the Roosters. This is a team who aren’t always as dominant as we think they might be, and often it is Mitchell who provides the big play to get his team out of trouble or on the front foot. With no disrespect to his replacement, Mitchell Aubusson does not have that ability, so it will be to the like of Ferguson, Tedesco and Tupou to provide the spark.
This game, and the potential game next week, are the very reason that Cooper Cronk was brought to this team, so all eyes will be on the Queensland superstar if this game goes down to the wire. His counterpart, Adam Reynolds, proved last week he can produce in the clutch, and we have seen Cronk do the same many, many times. The danger here is that the Rabbitohs have played two colossal finals games already, and they may not be able to get up for a third. They were slow out of the blocks against the Dragons, a result of their torrid Storm clash, and a similar start this week will see them trailing early and possibly out of the game by half time. Damien Cook wasn’t able to get his running game going against the Saints until his forwards had aimed up, so it will be up to the Burgess brothers to bring the early intensity here, or risk a blow out to the Roosters. If the Rabbits can stay within a striking distance with 20 minutes to go, hold on to your hats.
Predictions
The head says it is hard to go past the two teams who are coming off the rest last week, but this finals series has been anything but predictable. The Sharks will go close against the Storm, but Melbourne will be primed for this one, and will win in a nail biter. The Bunnies will try hard, but eventually they will run out of gas, and the Roosters will get a strong win over their arch rivals to set up a grand final clash with the Storm.
Best Bet
The Sharks love playing Melbourne, and the $3.10 about them for the win is way over the odds. The Storm know how to win these games, though, so take the Sharks with 8 points start at $1.91 as our best bet of the week.
