Only the great game of rugby league could conjure up a week like this leading into the grand final. Sunday night sees the Melbourne Storm meeting the Sydney Roosters at ANZ Stadium to decide the spoils for 2018, and given the success of both clubs over the past 20 years it is difficult to fathom that they have never met in a grand final before. Finishing 1 and 2 on the ladder, these two have clearly been the best teams all year, and now it all goes on the line for premiership glory.
The Storm and the Roosters are not the most loved teams in the competition, both envied for their success and seen as having an unfair advantage over other teams. Some pundits have long argued that the Storm’s salary cap issues, a stain on the history of this prestigious game, should never be forgotten, and that Melbourne are lucky to even have a team in a competition based predominantly in NSW and QLD. Such views are archaic, though, and the success that Craig Bellamy has cultivated in an AFL city should be celebrated, not denigrated. The Roosters, for their part, have always been able to negotiate quality third party deals for their stars, a completely legal tactical advantage, not warranting the slurs they receive about their salary cap management. What cannot be denied is that these teams have earnt their place in the big dance on Sunday.
There have been so many subplots over the past seven days that it is difficult to know where to begin. Depending on who you support, the decision to allow Billy Slater to play after his shoulder charge was either the greatest injustice in sporting history or the only correct decision that could be made. Given the commentary on the issue this week, there appears to be no middle ground. When you fight your way through all of the emotional hyperbole, though, it is clear that according to the letter of the law, the judiciary panel could not be convinced that Slater’s tackle fitted the definition of a shoulder charge. What is also abundantly clear is that those rules will be revisited over the summer to ensure we don’t have a repeat of this situation in the future. Slater’s inclusion is a huge boost for the Storm, as evidenced by the shortening of their starting price minutes after the hearing on Tuesday night.
The other player under the will-he-or-won’t-he play spotlight is Roosters’ number 7 Cooper Cronk. Cronk has done serious damage to his left shoulder, most likely a torn rotator cuff, though he won’t confirm the exact nature or extent of the injury. He seems at very long odds to play, despite being named in the 23, and his loss will be significant for the Chooks. He was a passenger in the second half against the Rabbitohs, and you cannot afford any passengers in a grand final against the Storm. So much has been made this year about Cronk’s switch from Melbourne, the falling out with Cameron Smith, and his omission would rob this game of one its most intriguing storylines. He will be doing everything and more to get fit, but at this stage he looks in extreme doubt.
Both teams bring solid form lines into this one, with the Storm doing it a little easier last week than the Chooks. Melbourne were outstanding in the first half against the Sharks, establishing an early lead that couldn’t be overrun by the leg weary Cronulla team. Slater was outstanding, but he was just the icing on the cake of this relentless Storm juggernaut. They simply know how to win these games, and love getting into an arm wrestle, no pun intended. The Roosters had to work to get past the Bunnies, but ultimately it was their resolute defence that laid the foundation for their grand final appearance. There was plenty of dropped ball, and the Roosters weren’t immune, but they tackled like their season depended on it, like they have all year, and they scraped home. James Tedesco and Joseph Manu were brilliant out wide, but there are still some question marks over their pack, which will be put to the test on Sunday.
The only time these teams have met this year, the Storm got home 9-8 on the back of a Cameron Smith field goal. Expect this one to be just as tight. The Roosters have been the best defensive team all year, and they will look to apply a stranglehold on a Melbourne attack that can swing between brilliant and slightly clunky. We will likely not know exactly who will play halfback for the Roosters until close to game time, and you can ignore the fact that Mitchell Aubusson has been named in the number 7. What appears most likely is that either Ryan Matterson or Aubusson will play five-eighth, with Luke Keary playing halfback, while young Sean O’Sullivan is also a chance to come into the halves. It would be a huge call to pitch a rookie into the most important position in a grand final, but Trent Robinson showed he wasn’t afraid to give young players a start in big games by playing Paul Momirovski last weekend. If Cronk isn’t fit, the Roosters lose not only his skill, but his organisation, and most importantly his composure. Keary won’t be overawed, but he would love to have the champion halfback beside him.
The Roosters have two big inclusions this week that could make a significant impact. Latrell Mitchell and Dylan Napa make their returns from suspension, and both have a game changing play in their arsenal if they are switched on. Mitchell is one of the most improved players of the year, establishing himself as a genuine superstar who will play for the Kangaroos at the end of the year. Napa’s return will take some pressure off Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, who looked to be carrying quite a burden last week. Napa needs to be immense, as the Storm forward pack will look to dominate the middle third with their big men.
Melbourne bring an unchanged team from last weekend, meaning Brodie Croft again wears the number 7 jersey. You get the feeling that the motivation to secure back-to-back premierships is the driving force in this Storm team, particularly for captain Smith. He has achieved everything possible in the game, and this one elusive record would cement his team as the greatest of the modern era. While Smith and Slater can be counted on to produce their best, the key for the Storm will again be Cameron Munster, who can turn the game on a dime with a jinking run or big fend. Expect him to make his mark on this one at some stage with an individual piece of brilliance.
This grand final will be a battle between the Storm’s electrifying attack and the Roosters’ unyielding defence. Slater, Addo-Carr, Vunivalu, Chambers… there are Melbourne threats everywhere, with Smith and Munster pulling the strings. The Chooks have some strike of their own, with Mitchell and Tupou always dangerous on the left. The clash between Mitchell and Chambers will be mouth watering, renewing hostilities from their State of Origin battle. This game will have very few chances, so the team who takes them when they are on offer will win. Expect a low scoring, grind of a grand final, with only a penalty goal, a field goal or a late try between the teams. Smith will be his usual influential self, dictating play and directing traffic. He is the most influential player the game has ever seen, and this ability is only heightened in these big games. Slater will be energetic, knowing it is his last game, and will bob up in the backline at every opportunity. It would not surprise at all to see him nab a four pointer at some stage, potentially with the game on the line. Keary is the key for the Roosters, especially so if Cronk is out. He needs to push his forwards up the field, and look to give Tedesco and Mitchell space when they want it. The pressure will be on their forwards, knowing Melbourne will look to come through the middle, so Napa and Waerea-Hargreaves will be crucial. This might not be classic, free flowing rugby league, but it will be a tough, cliff hanger of a grand final. ANZ Stadium will be a graveyard for the dreams of one team, while the other will claim their place in history.
The Betting
After starting the week as $1.90 pick-em market, the Storm have come in to $1.70, with the Roosters drifting to $2.20 on the back of Slater’s inclusion and Cronk’s doubt. There is plenty of value to found in a number of markets, but given the likely close nature of the contest, $3.10 for the Storm to win by 1-10 looks to be a fantastic bet. $2.40 for Billy to grab a try in his farewell game isn’t bad either, and Cameron Munster is excellent value at $9 for the Clive Churchill Medal, but it’s Melbourne in a close one for our best bet of the week.
For the latest NRL Grand Final markets, click here.
