The Form Guide
The regular season is behind us, and finals footy is on our doorstep in what is the most wide open competition in recent memory. The top 8 has contained the same teams since round 13, but there are still so many unknowns as we head into sudden death. The Roosters claimed the minor premiership with a dismantling of the Eels, but it is difficult to know what form line you can read out of such a one sided match. Despite only really hitting top gear in the last six weeks, the Chooks did enough early on to find themselves with the number 1 spot, and look the team most likely at the moment. James Tedesco, Blake Ferguson and Latrell Mitchell are on fire, and Cooper Cronk and Luke Keary are in a groove. They will be incredibly tough to stop if they put it all together.
The Roosters were given the chance to claim top spot after Melbourne went down to the Panthers on Friday. The Storm have hit a little lull heading into the finals, fatigue perhaps setting in after a gruelling season as defending premiers. Give credit to the Panthers, though, who played with a physicality and a poise that we haven't seen since before Origin. James Maloney is the key, a big game player who does so much for young Nathan Cleary. Are they coming good at just the right time? They are certainly giving themselves a chance, that's for sure.
The Sharks and Rabbits both recorded strong wins against relatively weak opposition to secure their spots in the top 4, and will come into the finals with plenty of confidence. The Souths pack have found their lost mojo, and this is allowing Damien Cook and the halves to dominate games the way they were earlier in the season. So much of their fate rests with the Burgess brothers. If they go forward, Souths usually win. Cronulla, on the other hand, seem like they knew exactly what they had to do to get them to this position, and now they are ready to strike. They have incredible experience, especially in their pack, and in Valentine Holmes they have the form player of the competition.
The Dragons, Warriors and Broncos all grabbed wins on the weekend, but they come into the finals in very different shape. The Dragons have limped in, and are favoured to bounce out pretty quickly. The Warriors look incredibly dangerous, but the doubt remains that they they can be consistent enough to win a few games in a row from the bottom half of the eight, away from home. The Broncos, though, come into the finals after beating the Roosters, Souths, and destroying the Sea Eagles, and look the team most likely to make a run. Again, it comes down to the pack, who are going forward again and creating space for their halves. This team won't necessarily win the games that get into a grind, but if they are allowed to play the ad lib football they are so good at, they could shock some top 4 teams in September.
The Big Games
It doesn't get much bigger than the first week of finals football, with two of the four games being sudden death. We kick off on Friday night with the Storm hosting the Rabbitohs, and the key to this one might be the returning Storm stars. Billy Slater and Cameron Munster return to the line-up, and that means Melbourne will look very different to the team that went down to the Panthers last week. The Bunnies are firing, though, and they have the most in form forward pack in the competition. Greg Inglis looks fitter than he has ever been, and Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker are humming behind this pack. Amazingly the Rabbitohs have never won in Melbourne, but you get the feeling this might be the night they break their duck. There a plenty of people tipping the Rabbits to win the competition, and victory away from home to kick off their finals run would give them plenty of confidence.
The Warriors travel to Penrith on Saturday afternoon for the first of the knock-out games, and it's difficult to know what we'll get from both of these teams. The Panthers looked diabolical for a few weeks after Anthony Griffin left the building, but any team that can beat Melbourne can't be written off. The Warriors’ best football is good enough to beat anyone, but the question will remain if they can win multiple games in a row in Australia. The key is Issac Luke, as always, and as brilliant as Shaun Johnson may be, he is nothing without a pack that is going forward, and Luke is the key to that pack. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is the short priced favourite for the Dally M medal, and he will be looking for a big finals series on the back of his most consistent regular season performance of his career. If the Warriors can get through this one, they'll back themselves to keep winning, but it is a long road trip to get them through to the big dance.
The Roosters meet the Sharks on Saturday night, and anyone who tells you they know how this game will turn out is a liar. The battle of the fullbacks will be worth the price of admission alone, with Valentine Holmes and James Tedesco being the two most in form players in the competition. There isn't a team in the competition who can compete with the strike power in the Roosters’ back line, so the key will always be shutting down their forward pack. This is the where the Sharks can take the upper hand, with a level of experience and finals know how that the Roosters just can't match. The pressure will be on the likes of Waerea-Hargreaves, Napa and Radley to make sure they are containing Gallen, Lewis, Graham and Co. This might come down to experience vs potential. If the Roosters play their best game, they will be very difficult to beat, but the Sharks know how to get the job done in these games. It should be a cracker.
Finally on Sunday, the Broncos host the Dragons in what appears to be the most obvious of results for the weekend. The Broncos come in in red hot form, while the Dragons have struggled to win a game over the last six weeks. Brisbane should be too hard to beat at Suncorp on a Sunday afternoon, though the Dragons pack still has the experience and early season form to shut down the Broncos forwards and make life difficult for the Brisbane halves. Each team has a huge back row inclusion, with Jack De Belin and Tevita Pangai Jnr returning for this one. Andrew McCullough also returns for Brisbane, allowing Josh McGuire to move back out of the hooking role. Ben Hunt returns to Suncorp for the first time in Dragons colours, and it has not been a happy 8 weeks for the million dollar man. If he can somehow turn around his own form, with the help of the returning Gareth Widdop, the Saints might have a sniff. This feels like a good win for the Broncos, but their halves are yet to prove themselves in the finals, and this is a very different ball game.
Predictions
The Storm are welcoming back some key players, but the Rabbits bring some red hot form into this one, and they'll get the chocolates here. The Panthers will do just enough to beat the visiting Warriors, while the experienced Sharks will upset the Roosters in Sydney. On Sunday, the Broncos will be far too strong for the Dragons, who will exit the finals in the first week in another bitter blow for their fans.
Best Bet
The Sharks are huge outsiders against the unproven Roosters, so take the value on Cronulla at $2.45 to get the win, that's our best bet of the week.
Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors
Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks
Brisbane Broncos v St George-Illawarra Dragons
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