Bledisloe Cup - Game 3
New Zealand v Australia
5:00pm Saturday 27 October 2018
Nissan Stadium - Tokyo
It may seem incongruous that we are revisiting the Bledisloe Cup, secured by New Zealand back in August, but we head to Japan on Saturday night for game 3 of this year’s series. The corresponding dead rubber in 2017 saw Australia restore a modicum of pride, and that will again be the goal for the Wallabies this weekend. New Zealand won’t be the understrength team for the taking that they were last year, and Australia have had a rollercoaster 2018 with more lows than highs, so this will be a real test of the Wallabies’ resolve in their continued march towards the World Cup.
Trying to read a form line out of the Wallabies’ last outing is a head scratching exercise. Down 31-7 to Argentina at half time, they mounted a record breaking comeback to seal a memorable, and much needed, victory. It is difficult to know which half was the aberration, but the struggles of 2018 suggest that the first half is a truer representation of the state of this team than the second. Coach Michael Cheika claimed that his half time spray contained no technical information, but that belies the fact that the Wallabies’ comeback was not based on spirit or desire, but a clear tactical change. They went away from the lateral game that had failed them for two years, and straightened the attack, with runners hitting space and looking to offload with free hands. Unsurprisingly, except perhaps to the coaching staff, this resulted in a much more direct attack, that bent the line and created space for support runners, resulting in a deluge of tries like we haven’t seen from this team in a long time. This is the type of play Australian fans have been screaming out for, an acknowledgement that basics are still important, and that you have to earn the right to go wide by doing the tough stuff in the middle first. If Cheika and Stephen Larkham ignore this lesson, Australian fans will again be pulling their hair out on Saturday night.
This Test, followed by the three Spring Tour fixtures in the UK and Europe, are vitally important for Australia. After a horror 2018, the team must show that the patience being granted them is worth the investment, and that improvements are coming. There are not enough matches between now and the World Cup for the Wallabies to stay in this transition period, and results need to start improving immediately.
Cheika and his Wallabies have to cope with a number of forced absences from the team on Saturday, highlighted by the resting Lukhan Tui, the injured Reece Hodge, and the UK-bound Matt Toomua, three of the more promising performers over 2018. Another late blow has hit the Wallabies with the withdrawal through injury of lock enforcer Adam Coleman, who is replaced by Rob Simmons. Up front, Taniela Tupou returns to the bench, where Cheika will be hoping he rediscovers the dynamic late impact he was making in previous games. Allan Alaalatoa comes into the starting pack alongside Folau Fainga'a and Scott Sio. The rest of the pack remains unchanged, with Ned Hannigan joining David Pocock and skipper Michael Hooper in the back row. This still feels unbalanced, but Cheika will be sticking by this formation right through to the World Cup.
Out wide, Israel Folau moves in one spot to replace Hodge in the centres, a position he filled on occasion for the Waratahs this year with indifferent success. His biggest test will come in defence, trying to cover the difficult channel at 13. Sefa Naivalu comes onto the wing for the first time in a year, with a great opportunity to stake a claim for the rest of the tour. The last time he played Test football be scored a double against the Italians, and his blinding speed must be utilised in Saturday. Excitingly, Samu Kerevi makes his return from injury via the bench, and he will be sure to be given 20 minutes to blow the cobwebs out.
The Kiwis have named a slightly experimental team for the dead rubber clash, with TJ Perenara and Damien McKenzie being given rare starts at halfback and fullback respectively. Sonny Bill Williams lines up in the centres, and his clash with the Aussie midfield will be mouthwatering. No less than five key forwards are making their returns from injury, highlighted by the influential Brodie Retallick. Despite the back line changes, this team will be desperate to secure the clean sweep they missed out on in 2017.
Like always, the forward battle will go a long way to deciding this one, and on paper it looks extraordinarily one sided in favour of the Kiwis. The Aussies may struggle to hold their own, and can't simply try to bash and barge their way through this pack. Angled runs, hitting spaces instead of bodies, taking the ball through the advantage line and supporting the ball runner will all be crucial elements if they are to be successful. The second man plays need to be shelved, with lead runners used as first options before going wide. The scrums look relatively evenly matched, but the line out could be an area the Wallabies are exposed if they're not careful.
The backline's biggest challenge will be transition defence, especially with a new combination in the centres. Plenty of traffic will be sent at Folau and Kurtley Beale, and any turnover ball won by the Kiwis will be quickly spread to the space out wide. McKenzie is especially dangerous in this respect, and Australia's traditionally slow adjustment in transition poses a serious threat. In attack, there is no shortage of strike power in the Wallabies, but getting the ball to these runners at the right time and in space will be the challenge. Much again rests on Bernard Foley and Beale, and their jobs will be made that much easier if they are working with front foot ball.
Bledisloe Cup Bets Bets
This match looks incredibly daunting for the Australians, not unwinable, but very different to the corresponding match last year. The Kiwis are deserved heavy favourites at $1.13 to $6.10 for the Aussies, and it's hard to make a case for an upset. Even the 15.5 points start looks difficult to defend, so the Kiwis -15.5 the handicap at $1.87 is our best bet of the week.
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