Rugby Championship Week 2 Preview (Bledisloe Cup)
New Zealand v Australia
5:30pm Saturday 25 August 2018
Eden Park
Is the Bledisloe Cup run and won for another year? All of the smart money would say yes, as the Australians squandered their best opportunity in years to go 1-0 up in a series with only one game to be played on New Zealand soil. Unfortunately for the Wallabies, that game is at Eden Park this Saturday night, a graveyard for visiting rugby teams and somewhere the Australians haven’t tasted success since Andrew Slack was captain. While it is not quite mission impossible, it is probably the closest thing to it, given this is a two horse race where the favourite starts at $1.06 and the outsider at $9.50. Whatever the outcome, Australian rugby fans will be desperate to see some improvement from last week, particularly the diabolical second half.
It was difficult not to be a little optimistic heading into game 1, perhaps not for a win, but at least for a hard fought loss. The first half followed the script, with the Wallabies taking a 6-5 lead into the break on the back of some resolute defence and some Kiwi errors. To give the Australians their due, some of these errors, and the uncharacteristic clunkiness of the All Blacks, could be put down to the pressure that was being applied by the gold defence. The line speed was impressive, the hits were sticking, and there weren’t the usual gaps out wide that fans are used to seeing.
For all of the effort without the ball, though, the Wallabies could not capitalise on the scoreboard outside of two penalty goals. The attack remained predictable, one out runners slamming into the black wall, and bar one midfield break they never looked like dotting down. For all of the talk last week, and indeed this week, that there are “plenty of points in this team”, the formation doesn’t seem to be providing them many opportunities. Reece Hodge and Dane Haylett-Petty aren’t blessed with natural speed, and Israel Folau continued to struggle to inject himself in space. The set piece was dismantled from kick off, with the scrum and lineout continually failing to deliver quality ball, or any ball, to the backs. 7 lost lineouts from their own throw tells the story of a sorry night for the Australian pack. It was the second half, though, when things really fell apart. The defence was first to falter, most likely under the weight of exhaustion from their first half efforts, and the Kiwis began to find space. Once they had room to move, there was little anyone could do to stop them. Beauden Barrett put to bed any unrest about his position with another 5 star display, and he had some handy helpers out wide in Ben Smith and Waisake Naholo. The All Black forwards were immense, none more so than locks Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock, whose combination showed just how far the Wallabies have fallen behind in this specialist position. Retallick’s ability to bend the line, offload, or indeed dummy and find space, is extraordinary, and talk this week that he now rivals the great John Eales is hard to argue with. The front row did a number on the Australians, and the loose forwards were everywhere. David Pocock tried hard to combat them, but he was playing a lone hand at the breakdown. There is no shortage of areas that the Wallabies need to fix if they are going to go close this weekend.
Both teams have made changes from last week, some forced and others not so. Israel Folau is the biggest casualty for the Australians, forcing a backline reshuffle that sees Haylett-Petty move to fullback and Jack Maddocks get a starting opportunity on the wing. A brand new front row has been elevated to the starting side to try to rectify some of the issues faced last week, and Folau Faingaa earns a possible Test debut off the bench. The other potential debutante is Tom Banks, who was a little unlucky to miss out on the number 15 jumper, but Michael Cheika is probably shielding him from a baptism of fire at Eden Park.
For the All Blacks, the only changes have been the result of two backline injuries, with Reiko Ioane and Ryan Crotty unavailable. In a somewhat surprsing move, Ben SMith has been shifted from fullback to cover for Ioane on the wing, with young Jordie Barrett given another opportunity at the back, while Ngani Laumape joins the outstanding Jack Goodhue in the centres to replace Crotty. These are some new, untested combinations, and the Australians might sense an opportunity to run some traffic through the midfield early to test the communication. Individually, though, they are clearly all spectacular athletes, and there is still no shortage of strike power across the park.
There are so many areas the Wallabies showed deficiencies last week that it's difficult to narrow down areas they must improve in. The most obvious is the set piece, and the front row clean out simply must pay dividend at scrum time. Unfortunately, Taniela Tupou is still unavailable, and the Australians will again miss his scrummaging and running game. The lineout was also a disaster, so the pressure will be on Adam Coleman to fix this area with some variation in the calls and some more options for his hookers to hit. Izack Rodda, Lukhan Tui and Coleman must find a way to match the effectiveness of Retallick and Whitelock, and actually force the Kiwis behind the gainline with their carries. Fail in this area again, and the backs won't be able to do a thing.
Out wide, the Australians need to use the weapons they have more often. Marika Koroibete must come looking for work, Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale need to create some space for Reece Hodge, and Jack Maddocks need to sniff around the ball all night. The Wallaby support play was severly lacking last week, as opposed to the Kiwis who always seemed to have support runners whenever a half break was made. This is one area that Maddocks can be very effective, and it wouldn't surprise to see him bag another try by sitting on the shoulders of his runners.
Bledisloe Cup Bets Bets
Only the most positive Australian would confidently pick a Wallabies' win this weekend, but that doesn't mean there isn't some value to be found. The 22.5 points start the Wallabies are being given is defendable if they are switched on, and $1.92 is tempting. Cheika and his men love having their backs to the wall, so back the Wallabies with the start and keep your fingers crossed!
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