Spring Tour
Italy v Australia
1:00am Sunday 18 November 2018
Stadio Euganeo, Padova
The Wallabies’ Spring Tour continues in Italy this weekend, and after last weekend’s insipid loss to Wales, this game takes on an almost seismic importance. The snapping of the 13 game winning streak against the Welsh, and the failure to score a try in 80 minutes of rugby, means that the Italian clash has transformed from an opportunity to take a few risks to a match that could actually bring down this current Australian set up. Despite Raelene Castle publicly backing Michael Cheika to the next World Cup, a loss to the Italians, followed by a likely loss to the English would surely make his position untenable. Make no mistake, this match is a potential career ender.
Some fans would argue that that wouldn’t be the worst result in the world, given the lack of improvement shown by the Wallabies under this current coaching structure. The performance against Wales was so devoid of positives that it’s difficult to single out any particular negatives. Set piece, backline structure, forward momentum, the breakdown, the kicking game… it was all underwhelming. Perhaps there is something salvageable in the fact they didn’t concede any tries, but anyone looking to take positives from this performance is missing the point. This is a team that is so far off the pace, so deficient in basic skills and game sense, and has shown no improvement in the past 2 years, that surely heads must begin to roll. Fans simply cannot be expected to keep faith with a team who continue to pick the same players, make the same mistakes, and get the same results. Many have already given up, but for the rusted on true believers, the match this weekend is as big as they come.
As painful as it will have been for the team, they must have confronted the demons of the Welsh game this week with a view to where they must improve. Michael Hooper has admitted the error of his ways in ignoring penalty goals, so expect plenty of shots at goal this weekend. The kicking in general play was aimless, simply handing back possession in good field position for no apparent gain. The lineout failed at key times, though it was a rough day for both teams, particularly early. The backline stood far too deep, insisted on going wide too early, and crabbed sideways when it was running out of options. Sound familiar? Frustratingly so.
Cheika's team for this weekend contains a number of new faces, but maybe not quite as many as he might have planned before last week's loss. The team will be steered by Jake Gordon at halfback and Matt Toomua at flyhalf, a bold and exciting halves pairing, but they will have the safety net of Bernard Foley at inside centre, a curious choice from the coach. Samu Kerevi stays at 13, while Jordan Petaia and Adam Ashley-Cooper, at 18 and 34 respectively, are wildly contradicting selections on the wing. Australia can't wait to see what Petaia can do in gold, but we already have a fair idea what Ashley-Cooper can do, while Tom Banks continues to play tourist on this trip. Israel Folau returns to fullback, where again it would have been interesting to see what Banks could offer. A backline of Gordon, Toomua, Folau, Kerevi, Petaia, Naivalu and Banks would have been the bolder play, and potentially a backline that could challenge the top teams in a World Cup next year.
There are less surprises in the forward pack, with only the usual front row rotation being made. David Pocock and Michael Hooper will both play despite the argument that they could have benefited from a rest before the English game, as Cheika has tied himself to this backrow combination. Taniela Tupou gets another opportunity to stake a claim for a starting berth, and while his scrummaging has been solid of late, he will be keen to reignite his running game against the Italians.
It is stating the obvious to say that the Australians need to win this weekend, but they also need to win well. A scrappy victory over a plucky Italian team will do nothing to silence the cilritica calling for change. This must start at the set piece, which needs to be flawless. Any lost ball or field position at scrum or line out time is simply unacceptable. The forwards must run to space, using footwork to get over the advantage line and get momentum in the attack. Toomua must play flatter than Foley, and Foley must offer some straight running lines for Toomua. The kicking game must be purposeful, pinning the Italians in their own half and finding space or the line when required. And we simply must take the points when they are on offer, particularly early in the game, but later if we need to. There is just no room for sloppiness in a game that could potentially end careers.
This is a really tricky game for punters to take on, with the Aussies so short in the betting but so unpredictable. The 16.5 points start for the Italians is a difficult one to call as well, so let's back young Jordan Petaia to being his barnstorming NRC form into the Test arena, and grab a try in his debut. Jordan Petaia as anytime try scorer is our best bet of the week.
Italy v Australia
Line +/-16.5
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