Two NRL heavyweights clash this Friday night as the Penrith Panthers host the Melbourne Storm in a 2024 Grand Final rematch.
Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm
Matches between these two sides often feel like finals footy, but Melbourne have more immediate concerns right now.
The Storm are looking to avoid three losses in a row for the first time since 2022 after falling to the Broncos and Cowboys over the past two rounds.
It’s a big ask, because Penrith are the form team of the competition right now – undefeated, averaging 35 points scored per match and conceding just 7.5.
Leg 1 - Panthers 1-12
The Panthers should win this. They’re playing extremely well in 2026, with their forwards dominating through the middle and their backs finishing off the opportunities.
Melbourne have shown a lack of composure recently, blowing double-digit leads in their last two matches, and Penrith will likely capitalise on those mistakes.
However, games between these teams are usually tight, finals-style contests – the last five meetings have been decided by eight points or less – so don’t expect a blowout.
Leg 2 - Second Half Highest Scoring
The Storm have leaked points in the second half across the past two rounds.
Combine that with a match that should start physically and cautiously, and it’s easy to see a lower-scoring first half before the game opens up later.
Leg 3 - Tom Jenkins to Score
Jenkins is on fire this season, scoring four tries against the Roosters in Round 3 after scoring doubles in the opening two rounds.
The Panthers winger didn’t score last week, which often makes him even more dangerous the following game.
Melbourne’s left-edge defence struggled against the Cowboys, and Jenkins should get opportunities again here.
Same Game Multi
Panthers 1-12 / Second Half Highest Scoring / Jenkins to Score = $8.00
Value Bet - Storm/Panthers Half-Time/Full-Time @ $6.50
Melbourne have started games well in 2026, while Penrith have tended to wear teams down and finish strongly.
Expect a similar pattern here – a tight first half that Melbourne may edge, before Penrith take control in the second half with the home crowd behind them.
