Spring Tour
Engalnd v Australia
2:00am Sunday 25 November 2018
Twickenham Stadium
The Wallabies’ annus horribilis comes to an end this weekend at Twickenham, and the home of rugby could yet be a graveyard if things don't go well for the men in gold. The English lie in wait, seemingly having turned their form around over the last couple of weeks, most notably with a desperately unlucky loss to the All Blacks. Old Randwick mates Michael Cheika and Eddie Jones will be in the coaches boxes, keen to get one over their ex-teammate. If the Wallabies can aim up, this one should be a beauty.
Last week's victory over the plucky Italians did little to settle the nerves of Australian fans. An early disallowed try from the Azzuri could have turned this match on its head, but instead the Wallabies used the minutes either side of half time to build an unassailable lead with three quick tries. There were some clear standouts for the Aussies, with Izack Rodda playing his best game in gold, Taniela Tupou proving that he can be an effective starter, Samu Kerevi causing headaches all night, and 34 year old Adam Ashley-Cooper showing that he can still contribute in the twilight of his career. The wily veteran reminded everyone exactly what has been missing from this Wallabies backline, a cool head who does the basics well, runs straight and offers support. It's very simple, but it's very effective.
Elsewhere, though, there were plenty of things to work on. The backline still stood far too deep, and looked to go sideways too early. Bernard Foley is not an inside centre, despite Cheika’s belief he has the attributes to play there. David Pocock was brilliant over the ball, but his back row mates didn't offer the ball carrying grunt required of them. The kicking game again looked lost, the insistence to kick down the middle of the field frustrating for fans, and there is still a willingness to push the final pass from the outside backs when it's not on. No doubt England will be looking to capitalise on these mistakes.
Cheika’s team to face the English continues the recent trend of surprising selections and confusing calls. Somehow, Foley has retained the number 12, despite every other team in world rugby abandoning the dual playmaker approach 3 years ago. Israel Folau stays at fullback, pushing Dane Haylett-Petty out onto the wing, where he has been less effective, and Jack Maddocks replaces Marika Koriobete after he bagged 2 tries last week. Clearly Cheika still doesn't know what his first choice backline is.
Up front, Scott Sio, Tolu Latu and Sekope Kepu reunite as a front row, while the rest of the pack is unchanged from Italy. Pocock has been passed fit despite an injury concern, and his selection underlines the importance of this fixture to the Australians. The bench looks light on for firepower and impact, with no Taniela Tupou or Kurtley Beale included. If the Wallabies need to find points down the stretch, it's difficult to see one of the finishers providing the spark.
England have essentially returned to a full strength side after their clash with the Japanese last week. Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell will steer the team around, behind an intimidating forward pack led by big locks Courtney Lawes and Maro Itoje. Ben Teo gets another crack at inside centre, and he should be licking his lips at the site of Foley opposite him, while big Manu Tuilagi will be looking to make an impact from the bench.
England were dynamic early against the All Blacks, and will bring that same intensity to the opening 20 minutes against the Wallabies. If the Aussies are as pedestrian in the opening exchanges as they were last week, they could find themselves down by 3 tries before they have settled into the game. Expect Farrell to use his kicking game to pressure Australia, particularly with the high ball. Their big pack will look to rumble over the gain line, and give their finishers some room to move. The Australian midfield defence will be under scrutiny all night.
Matt Toomua will need to be excellent for the Aussies to have a chance. He needs to play closer to the advantage line, and his kicking needs to be purposeful and effective. Foley has to straighten his attack, and they both need to get early ball to Kerevi. Cheika has sacrificed pace out wide for safety under the high ball, so the gains must come in midfield, not on the flanks. It's not a backline that looks particularly frightening, so it must be effective.
The set piece will again be crucial, and Latu needs to own the line out early or it will be a long night. The scrum looks strong, but will still be targeted by the English. Rodda and Coleman need to have huge running games and Kepu and Latu need to keep their discipline in order. This is a lot to ask of a team who haven't looked settled all year, but with one game to go, now is the time to produce something special.
England deservedly start strong favourites, and it would be a brave punter to tip an upset at Twickenham. The 8.5 points start might not be enough for the Aussies, so England minus the handicap at $1.92 is our best bet of the week.
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