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Bledisloe Cup Game 1 Preview – Australia v New Zealand

Bledisloe Cup Preview - Game 1

Here we are again, the greatest week of the rugby season, the week when we can dare to dream that maybe, just maybe, this might be the time we can knock the Kiwis off their perch. The sad reality is that those hopes will in all likelihood be dashed by 8:30 this Saturday night, but until then, we are still a shot! So, in the spirit of that hope, here are the big talking points looking ahead to Bledisloe 1:

Let’s talk about the rugby
It has been a horrible couple of weeks for Australian rugby, coming on the back of the worst Super Rugby season we have ever witnessed. The discontinuation of the Western Force, and the subsequent legal wrangling that could drag on well into the future, has left a sour taste in a lot of mouths, and support for the game is at its lowest ebb in many parts of the country. Never in recent memory has Australian rugby needed the Wallabies to produce something, anything, that we can hang our collective hats on more than this week. It is more important than it’s ever been that we show some kind of fighting spirit, some level of improvement, and something close to a game plan this Saturday night. The reported death of rugby in this country has only been slightly exaggerated, but it is clearly on life support. If the headlines on Sunday are about the match, and not the mess the game is in as a whole, then that will be a small victory in a long running war.

Kiwi revenge
The epic drawn series with the British and Irish Lions will have the Kiwis on edge for this one. They were bitterly disappointed to let the series slip out of their grasp, and though they won’t be talking about revenge this weekend, clearly they will be wanting to re-establish themselves as the dominant team in world rugby. They have made some interesting selections, with the backline looking a little different to what we last saw. The brilliant Ben Smith has been moved to the wing to accommodate the equally dangerous, though less experienced, Damian McKenzie at fullback. A back three of McKenzie, Smith and young Rieko Ioane could cause the Wallabies all sorts of headaches, and there will be huge pressure on the kicking game of Bernard Foley, who simply cannot give the Kiwis any opportunity to counter attack against a staggered defensive line. The game could be won or lost right there. Sonny Bill Williams is a controversial inclusion after some smart legal work allowed him to serve his suspension in a Mickey Mouse warm up match, and his combination with Ryan Crotty will be crucial for the Kiwis, particularly in shutting down the Wallabies’ midfield. The less said about the Kiwi halves, from an Australian point of view, the better. In the pack, there is a changing of the guard as Liam Squires comes in for Jerome Kaino, and the front five again look to have it all over their rivals in gold. With the extra motivation of a last-start draw, this team looks close to impossible to shut down.

Wallaby hopes
But attempt to shut them down we must. So who steps up and makes the difference? Michael Hooper has now permanently inherited the arm band from Stephen Moore, and Wallaby fans will be looking for more from their number 7 than his usual Energizer bunny performance. Now that he’s captain, Hooper will need to control the game for Australia, make the right decisions in the heat of the moment, and manage the officials, all things that he has struggled with at times. Take the points when they are on offer, build pressure, and keep young heads in the game for 80, 82, 85 minutes, whatever it takes. This team is not good enough to have a captain who simply leads by example, and given Hooper has built his captaincy career on this style, there is significant pressure on him to show some real leadership in these tough times.

In other team news, Curtis Rona will make his Wallaby debut on the wing in place of the injured Dane Haylett-Petty, while there are returns to the starting XV for Samu Kerevi, Sean McMahon, and Kurtley Beale, the latter of whom is being billed as the potential saviour after a season in the UK. Whether Beale’s return sparks the Wallabies in the same way his combination with Bernard Foley and Israel Folau did for the Waratahs will be a matter of conjecture, but clearly this is Michael Cheika’s hope. The coach has always had a soft spot for Beale, and will be building his backline around three Waratahs towards the next World Cup. Doubts remain, though, about his ability to make an immediate impact this weekend, and he will need his big outside backs giving him flat, fast targets if he is going to worry the Kiwi defence.

There is clear gap in class between the two teams on paper, and the Wallabies will have to play the game of their lives to even make a contest of it, but isn’t that what makes it so exciting? Well, for now, at least. It could feel very different in the cold light of Sunday morning.

For the latest Bleedisloe Cup markets, click here.

Words: Cameron Stokes

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