Rugby Championship Week 3 Preview
Australia v South Africa
8pm Saturday 8 September 2018
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
*David Pocock has been scratched from the Wallabies side since this preview was published.
The Rugby Championship returns this weekend, with the Springboks visiting Brisbane to face a Wallabies team that has been knocked from pillar to post in the last fortnight. Two crushing losses to the All Blacks saw the knives come out for Michael Cheika, who now has to get his shattered team back up for this one. The South Africans split their matches against the Pumas, going down last week in a result they will be looking to make amends for here. It all makes for an intriguing showdown, and one of vital importance for Australian rugby.
The opening two losses exposed some glaring holes in the Australian armour which they will need to quickly address this weekend. The set piece was a huge disappointment, with both the scrum and line out performing below expectations. The Wallabies lacked penetration with ball in hand, both in terms of forwards getting over the gain line and the backs finding space. The defence performed well in patches, but when it didn't work it was disastrous, with the All Blacks counter attack tearing the Australians to shreds. There will be no Beauden Barrett or Damian McKenzie this weekend, but there will still need to be significant improvement shown to control the Boks and quell the doubters.
The Springboks will be just as motivated as the Wallabies after their insipid loss to Argentina last week. A number of significant changes have been made to the line up, most notably the demotion of hooker Malcolm Marx to the bench, and the recall of flyhalf Elton Jantjies at the expense of Handre Pollard. Jantjes brings an air of unpredictability to the team, but will be a target for pressure from the Australian backrow. If they can rattle him early he could turn into more of a liability than the Africans would be comfortable with. The Boks have also picked a new midfield combination, with the experienced Damien de Allende and Jesse Kriel returning to the 12 and 13 jumpers. Clearly they see the inside backs as an area that needed attention after their loss in Argentina, and potentially an area they can expose the Wallabies.
Cheika hasn't been outdone in the selection stakes, though, making the huge call to drop Bernard Foley to the bench and hand Kurtley Beale the reigns at number 10. He is joined by Matt Toomua at inside centre, who will add some starch to the defence and take some kicking pressure off Beale. This is the first meaningful Test match of Cheika’s reign that hasn't seen Foley start at flyhalf, and signifies that at the moment, no one is safe in this Australian team. Perhaps this is just what Cheika is after. After the recent substandard performances, no player deserves to feel safe. Israel Folau returns at fullback, meaning Dane Haylett-Petty reverts to the wing. Folau loves Suncorp Stadium, and needs to find himself in space at regular intervals this week to convince fans that fullback is still his best position. Many would prefer him on the wing, or even at outside centre, but Cheika firmly believes that 15 is his best spot. A year out from the World Cup, he needs to rediscover the form that made him a World XV selection.
Elsewhere, Rory Arnold has been recalled to the second row, with Izack Rodda shunted to the bench and Rob Simmons dropping out altogether. Arnold will not want to waste this opportunity, and he must ensure that his set piece work is solid, and his contribution around the park makes an impact. Rodda will offer more than Simmons coming on with 20 minutes to go, and he also needs to make sure he is bending the line when he gets the opportunity. In exciting news, Taniela Tupou has recovered from his hamstring issue to take a spot on the bench, and surely it won't be long before he wins a start for the Wallabies. He was the form front rower of the Australian Super Rugby teams, and his scrummaging is now the equal of his power running game. Expect something to happen when he hits the field on Saturday night.
The death of Australian rugby has been slightly exaggerated, but it is fair to say that it is vitally important for the health of the game in this country to see some improvement from the Wallabies, and a home Test match against the Boks is a great place to start. Traditionally these teams have shared the spoils each year, winning at home and losing away. Last year saw the extraordinary situation of two draws, so to say this will be an even contest is an understatement. The Wallabies simply must show some fortitude after their poor showings against New Zealand. A solid set piece, some kind of attacking game plan, and an 80 minute defensive performance are the essentials. Anything on top of that will be a bonus. A win is essential, especially considering they are the only team in the Rugby Championship yet to notch a victory.
Bledisloe Cup Bets Bets
Australia are strong favourites in this one, based purely on the home ground advantage. The odds would most likely be reversed if this was being played in South Africa, but don't think for a second that the Wallabies are sure things here. Given the late withdrawal of David Pocock, we'll make South Africa +4.5 $1.89 our best bet!
For the latest Rugby Championship markets, click here.
