Rugby Championship Preview (Bledisloe Cup)
Australia v New Zealand
7:45pm Saturday 18 August 2018
ANZ Stadium
Another season of Super Rugby has been put to bed, which means the Rugby Championship is right around the corner, and we kick off this Saturday night with the all-important first Bledisloe Cup clash. There are high school students around the country who have never seen an Australian lift the Cup in their lifetime, so any optimism on this side of the Tasman needs to be tempered with a good dose of history. Reclaiming the Cup is number 1 on the list of priorities for this Australian team, even ahead of a World Cup victory according to Will Genia, but winning two out of three games against this champion All Blacks side is one of the most difficult tasks in world sport. Hopes are slightly higher this year than they have been recently, though, based on the form of a number of key Australians and the fact that the Kiwis are a little less settled than they have traditionally been. Steve Hansen even had the gall to label the Wallabies favourites, as laughable as that may seem. The talk will count for little on Saturday, though, and it will take an almighty effort from the Aussies to grab a 1-nil lead in this series.
The Kiwis have named an unbelievably strong side for this Test, proven by the quality of players that have failed to make the match day 23. Jordie Barrett, Akira Ioane and Richie Mo’unga would walk into the Wallabies team, but couldn’t find a place here. Barrett was the most likely of the three to be picked, having performed admirably against the French, but Hanson has opted for the electric Ben Smith in his preferred fullback spot, promoting his Highlanders teammate Waisake Naholo to partner Rieko Ioane on the wing. This spells counterattacking trouble for the Wallabies, who will need to nullify Smith with their kicking game and limit the opportunities he has to feed his big, fast wingers in open space.
Jack Goodhue has won the battle for the outside centre spot, thanks to his rapid development during the year and combination with Ryan Crotty at 12. The halves were somewhat predictable, but the pressure that Mo’unga has placed on Beauden Barrett created the slightest doubt about who would wear the number 10. Really, though, it had to be Barrett, and he will again be a key danger man for the Wallabies.
No huge surprises in the pack, although it is scary to think that the forwards who defeated France have been boosted by the return of skipper Kieran Read and big Brodie Retallick. Read has been solid if unspectacular in his return from injury, but it was impossible to ignore his experience and leadership. His combination in the backrow with Liam Squire and Sam Cane provides perfect balance and all the threats you would want from your loose forwards. A late injury has forced Ofa Tuungafasi off the bench, leaving the Kiwis without a specialist reserve tighthead prop, a potential kink in the armour. This is a pack, though, that will make you work for every yard you earn, and who have the ability to bend the line and free the arms themselves, almost at will. Their line speed at the running Australians will be a feature, and the Wallabies will need to think about ways to unlock their tireless defence.
The Wallabies are also down a prop after Scott Sio failed to recover from a shoulder complaint. Tom Robertson comes into a familiar NSW tinged front row combination, with Sekope Kepu and the returning Tatafu Polota-Nau joing him up front. The rest of the pack is without surprises, Izack Rodda combining with Adam Coleman in the second row, and Lukhan Tui, Michael Hooper and David Pocock filling the back row. Hooper’s match fitness will be tested after sitting on the sideline since June, while Tui, Rodda and Coleman will be expected to log plenty of tough carries to make up for the dual openside selection.
As expected, Reece Hodge has won the race for the vacant outside centre spot, a position he hasn’t played at Test level before, but which seems most suited to his skill set. The biggest surprise is perhaps the selection of young Jack Maddocks on the bench at the expense of Tom Banks. Maddocks has had a breakout Super Rugby season, but Banks has been in electrifying form, and has a few years more experience than the Melbourne flyer. Both will play plenty of Tests in the future, and Banks will certainly play a role at some stage in the Rugby Championship. The return of Matt Toomua is a huge boost for the Wallabies, as he shapes as a legitimate challenger to Bernard Foley’s stranglehold on the number 10 jumper. Toomua is a genuine first five who can also cover 12, a solid defender with a reliable kicking game off the tee and out of hand. Cheika is certainly a fan of Foley, but he won’t mind having a plan B at all.
A number of key match ups will decide the outcome of Bledisloe 1. There will be huge pressure on Rodda and Coleman to match the impact of Retallick and Sam Whitelock, who will be running and hitting all night. Both of the Australians have the ability to do the same, but producing repeat efforts over 80 minutes will be the challenge. Tui must play a role here as well, knowing that he will likely come off after 60 minutes for Pete Samu. There will be no time for him to warm into this game. Hooper will be busy as always, and as the quickest forward on the park he needs to get in behind the All Blacks pack whenever he takes a dart. He also needs to make his tackles, so that Pocock can be free to pounce on any opportunities at the breakdown. The Kiwi backrow will run at Pocock all night to try to nullify him, but he doesn’t need many opportunities to produce a momentum changing play.
The All Blacks midfield will target the new combination of Hodge and Kurtley Beale, who have question marks over their defence. Hodge needs to keep things simple in attack. Where Samu Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani might have skipped or shuffled their way to the line and tried to bump off defenders, Hodge needs to run hard lines from depth at the space, and he will know that Foley and Beale can put the ball on the spot for him if he can hit a gap. Expect him to poke his nose through the line on at least a couple of occasions with a strong line inside Goodhue, and no doubt Goodhue will try to do the same back to him.
The clash of the back threes could be spectacular. Smith, Naholo and Ioane pose a massive threat to the Wallabies, and Foley will probably look to find touch with the boot to negate their counterattacking opportunities. Israel Folau, Dane Haylett-Petty and Marika Koroibete offer their own dangers, but it is defence where they will need to be in song. Koroibete’s rushing defence gets it right more often than not, but come in at the wrong time in this one and you can bank the five points for the Kiwis. Folau and Haylett-Petty will be busy defusing high kicks all night, so supporting them in good time and shifting the ball after it’s been won will be key.
Of course, so much will rest on the shoulders of the halves. Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett are the best in the world, but even they have a mistake in them if put under pressure. Foley and Genia have developed an improving combination, and Beale will also step in to assist Foley on occasion. The key difference could be the general play kicking, where Barrett has a huge advantage over Foley in length, accuracy and purpose. Picking Hodge at 13 shouldn’t stop the Wallabies from using his boot at crucial points, particularly coming out of danger from set piece play. Genia needs to provide some running threat from the ruck to keep a little pressure off Foley, who can get rushed if the defence is in his face. The interesting aspect might be the kicking off the tee, with Foley and Barrett both prone to an off night from time to time. Taking points when they are on offer could be crucial, and could even decide this one.
The Wallabies are being given 11.5 points start, and are $4.00 outsiders against the $1.25 Kiwis. Parochial Wallaby fans should snap up the value, as they are a genuine chance of pulling off an upset in Sydney. With only one game in New Zealand this year, victory on Saturday will give this team a real chance to make some history. Time will tell if they are good enough to grab that chance with both hands.
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