Wallabies v Ireland
Game 3. Saturday 23 June 2018. 8pm.
Allianz Stadium, Sydney
What a series this has been. The Wallabies shot out of the blocks with an outstanding, physical performance in game 1, the Irish brought their stars back for game 2 and dominated the Aussies despite scoring less tries, and now we have the decider in Sydney this Saturday night. Australian rugby fans have cried out for a June test series that lived up to the hype, and this one has been fantastic. Now it's all on the line, and both teams will be desperate to secure the win on Saturday night.
Last weekend in Melbourne we saw the return of the real Ireland, the team who won the 6 Nations and sit behind only the All Blacks in the world rankings. Johnny Sexton was brilliant in his return to the starting XV, directing traffic like the world class playmaker he is, creating doubt in defenders with his jinking runs, and taking the points when they were on offer. The Irish were improved across the park, but Sexton was key. Key also was the improvement at the breakdown, Peter O'Mahoney and co not letting David Pocock have nearly as much influence as he did in game 1. Punters could see the improvement the Irish had in them, and backed them into favouritism before kick off, and were duly rewarded with a polished performance.
The Wallabies, on the other hand, were not the same side we saw in Brisbane. Apart from a promising opening five minutes, which included a scything Kurtley Beale run for the first try, they struggled to get into any rhythm for the remainder of the match. Their physicality from game 1 was missing, the kicking game in general play was a mess again, and they rarely troubled the gain line in attack. Michael Cheika has been brutally honest about the shortcomings of the performance, and will be looking for marked improvement this weekend.
One key area that let the Wallabies down, again, was discipline. This has been a constant theme for the last few seasons, and Marika Koriobete's yellow card was the latest in a long line of unnecessary indiscretions. Finding the balance between aggression and control is the challenge for this team, and after getting it right in Brisbane, they were back to their old ways in Melbourne. They simply cannot afford to give Sexton the opportunity to bank points, which he did so well in Melbourne. This has to be a focus for Cheika and Michael Hooper.
Both teams have made some key changes from last week, with some forced by injury. The Irish have made five changes to their starting line-up, with the key unavalailabilities of Dan Leavy and Garry Ringrose most crucial. Skipper O'Mahoney will now have even greater responsibility to continue the Irish dominance of the breakdown. A brand new front row will look to restore balance in the scrum, but the Aussies will also see these changes as an opportunity.
For the Australians, two changes have been made to the starting XV. Will Genia suffered a broken arm last week, and is replaced by Nick Phipps, while Lukhan Tui comes onto the side of the scrum, shifting Pocock to Number 8 and pushing Caleb Timu out of the squad altogether. His spot has been taken by the divisive Ned Hanigan, who returns from his own injury, and fans will be looking to see if he has improved his physicality from his disappointing efforts in gold in 2017. He needs to make an impact off the bench if we are to take his potential at this level seriously.
This series deserves a grandstand finish, and this will very much depend on which Australian side turns up. After Brisbane, it looked like the penny had finally dropped for this team, but there were some clear backwards steps in Melbourne. Whether this was completely down to the improved Irish performance is difficult to say, but Cheika needs to convince his team that if they turn up in the right frame of mind, they have the fire-power to move into number 2 in the world. That frame of mind means they bring physicality in defence, commitment at the breakdown, starch in their runs and kicking with some tactical nous. Each of these areas was a let down in game 2, and we need to see improvement if we are to challenge Ireland.
A number of key Australian attacking weapons have been very well contained so far by the Irish tactics. Israel Folau was almost taken out of the game in Melbourne, and the Wallabies need to find a way to lift his involvement. Folau himself needs to go hunting around Kurtley Beale, who looks dangerous whenever he is in space. Likewise Samu Kerevi, who outside of a couple of bullocking runs has been barely sighted with ball in hand. If these two can find a way to get some front foot ball, there will be opportunities everywhere for the Wallabies.
Ireland have come roaring into favouritism after levelling the series last weekend, but don't doubt the Wallabies' ability to spring an upset in the decider. For a series locked at 1-1, $2.47 for an Aussie win on home soil looks incredibly good value. You can also find some value in the try scorer markets, where Folau, who rarely goes through a whole series without bagging a five pointer, paying $2.75 to score at any time. This game is crucial for the Wallabies in terms of their growth towards the World Cup, so expect them to be at their best on Saturday night. This should be an absolute beauty.
Australia v Ireland - 3rd Test
Line
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