Rugby Championship Week 4 Preview
Australia v Argentina
8pm Saturday 15 September 2018
CBUS Stadium, Gold Coast
Rugby returns to the Gold Coast this week, and hopefully the sunshine state lives up to its reputation this week after the showers that bathed Brisbane last week. The Wallabies finally managed to snare a win in the Rugby Championship with their victory over South Africa in Brisbane, but they still sit at the bottom of the table as it stands. Their opponent this week, the Argentinians, also have one win from their three outings, but their superior points differential has left the Australians languishing in 4th place. One of the teams will jump ahead this week, though, as they meet at Robina in a match far more interesting than this clash has traditionally been. The form of the Pumas, in beating South Africa and challenging the All Blacks last week, should have the Wallabies on high alert for this one.
While Michael Cheika will be satisfied with the win last week, there are plenty of areas for improvement, as we are accustomed to with this team. The shift of Kurtley Beale to flyhalf, with Matt Toomua outside him and Bernard Foley on the bench, was a mixed bag, as Beale showed flashes of brilliance interspersed with basic errors. Toomua did what he was brought in to do, straightening the attack and providing a reliable boot. The Wallabies plans were thrown into disarray with the late withdrawals of David Pocock, Israel Folau and Adam Coleman, so they can be given some latitude for a slightly clumsy performance. Izack Rodda made the most of his late call up, performing strongly in the lineout, but it was the performance of his Reds teammate Taniela Tupou that had most tongues wagging. The young prop held strong in the scrum under immense pressure, and his troublesome hamstring came through ok. He must be relishing the thought of taking on the Argentinian scrum this weekend.
For their part, the Pumas managed to inflict some wounds on the All Blacks that the Wallabies just couldn’t. Nicolas Sanchez was instrumental at flyhalf, and in some ways demonstrated exactly what Australia has been missing for the last 5 years. His ability to scythe through the line is what Cheika is hoping Beale will be able to provide that Foley rarely has. While the Argentine scrum may not be what it used to be, their work under Mario Ledesma, the Wallabies’ long time scrum mentor, should not be underestimated, and they will be targeting this area for improvement on Saturday night.
Crucial to that targeting will be a couple of key changes Ledesma has made to his pack. Santiago Medrano comes in at tight head, which shifts Nahuel Tetaz Chapparro to the loose head side, while Pablo Matera returns at blind side to replace the injured Tomas Lezana. There is only one change in the backline, with Gonzalo Bertranou called in at halfback, where his combination with the dangerous Sanchez will be crucial. The back three will again be a danger the Wallabies will have to nullify, putting pressure on the kicking games of the Australian playmakers.
Meanwhile, Cheika has pulled another selection shock, finally listening to the hordes that have been determined that Folau’s best position is on the wing. Dane Haylett-Petty has retained the fullback spot, meaning Folau returns to the position he started his international career in. It will be interesting to see exactly how this plays out, but you can be certain that at one stage or another we will see a cross kick to the corner for Israel to contest, and you’d have to think he will be unbeatable in those situations. Beale and Toomua stay in their new positions, as do Rory Arnold and Izack Rodda after they came in last week. David Pocock returns from injury at number 8, forcing Pete Samu back onto the bench. There must have been a temptation to elevate Tupou to the starting XV, but he will again look to make an impact off the bench.
The Wallabies are in a difficult position in this match up. Win, and they will have done what everybody expected, but struggle, and they will provide even more fodder for the critics. Of course they have to win, but more than that, they need to win well. They need to show some improvement, across the park. Some fluency in attack from their halves is a must, and another week training together will be invaluable. The new look back three will have plenty of eyes in it, and Folau needs to proactively look to put himself in space. The set piece needs to continue its improvement, and the pack needs to lick up its work around the ground. Lukhan Tui is still not 100% convincing in the number 6, and he needs to show a little more dynamism with ball in hand, and in his repeat efforts. Mostly, the crowd on the Gold Coast will want to be entertained. Another grinding win will not be enough.
Best Bets
There is value to be found in the markets for this clash. The Pumas look a good price at $1.92 with 10.5 points start, particularly given how close they ran the All Blacks. The return of Folau to the wing, though, is sure to attract some interest. $1.80 for Izzy to find the line at any time is out best bet of the week.
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