Rugby Championship Week 5 Preview
Argentina vs Australia
9:40am Sunday 7 October 2018
Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena
The Wallabies find themselves in Argentina this Sunday morning (Australian time) looking for redemption after their loss to the Pumas 3 weeks ago. In fact, the Wallabies are looking for a lot of things. It has been an abysmal season to date, with just 2 wins from 8 matches, and the pressure mounting on coach and players continues to intensify after each loss. Few players have seen their stocks rise this year, with a couple of notable exceptions, and areas that had previously been considered strengths are no longer seen as such. This final Rugby Championship match won't be able to fix all of that, but it can begin the healing if the Australians put their best foot forward.
In stark contrast to the plight of the Wallabies, the Pumas have enjoyed a hugely successful season on the back of a great Super Rugby season from the Jaguares. They beat the Springboks at home, and have challenged the All Blacks twice in a couple of weeks. They are no longer the staid, scrum focussed team we associate with Argentine rugby, their new found flair in attack surpassing anything the Wallabies have been able to offer this year. They ran through and around the Aussies on the Gold Coast, with their wingers in particular playing with spiders on them. Nicholas Sanchez is the conductor of this orchestra at flyhalf, his danger with ball in hand a big worry for opposition defences. After going down gallantly to New Zealand last week, they will be primed to finish their tournament with a bang at home.
The Wallabies left themselves with plenty to work on after another insipid performance against South Africa last week. The lineout continued to struggle, the kicking game was inconsistent, and the attack in general was so ineffective they spent more time going backwards than forward. The scrum managed to hold up under some pressure, and the run on debut of Taniela Tupou should be judged on this result as opposed to his lack of running impact. A series of questionable captaincy decisions, including the continual ambivalence to penalty goals, keeps Michael Hooper under the spotlight, and fans weren't particularly impressed by his insistence in positioning himself on the wing in attack. There is a distinct lack of balance across this team, with so many players playing out of their preferred or natural position. Hooper will never be a traditional number 7, and the rearranging of the pack to accommodate him is wearing thin with the faithful.
There were some positives to come from the match, most notably the solid starting debut of Tupou and the creative nous of Will Genia. Genia’s sniping led to both Australian tries, and his running game must again be a threat this week. David Pocock was huge again, his influence around the field second to none. He might still be playing more of a 7 than 8 role, but he is single handedly turning the momentum of matches with his impact on the ball.
Cheika has made just one change to the starting XV this week, but it is a significant one. Kurtley Beale's opportunity in the number 10 jumper has come to end, and he will revert to his customary inside centre position after failing to ignite the attack from flyhalf. Bernard Foley has returned to the starting team, with Matt Toomua slipping back to the bench. With Jack Maddocks returning home injured, the exciting Tom Banks gets another chance on the bench, and Caleb Timu and Tolu Latu have also both earnt a shot on the pine. Timu in particular has a real chance to press his claims, with the back row combination still not settled and the recent lack of impact from the bench a factor at the back end of games. If he can come on and make a difference, he could be exactly the type of impact player Cheika is looking for.
It is quite obvious that this is simply a must win game for the Wallabies. Halfback Will Genia has come out and guaranteed a victory, seemingly more in a bid to focus his own teammates than anything else. Foley's return must straighten the attack, and Beale should relish having a little pressure taken off him in the play making department. The kicking game will be back under scrutiny, and Reece Hodge needs to step in to assist here. Israel Folau will again be attacking from the wing, but how much time he actually spends on the flank will be interesting. He was almost a non factor last week, so he will be desperate to make an impact. Up front, there simply has to be some better go forward from the pack, who continually took the ball behind the gain line last week, and more often than not stayed there. Taking the ball straight from the halfback, and looking for space in behind the ruck instead of outside the flyhalf, must be on the cards this week. The Wallabies cannot go wide without working through the middle first.
Rugby Championship Best Bet
The Argentinians ($1.78) are deserved favourites for this one, but there is an air of desperation in the Australian ($2.05) team that cannot be ignored. Another loss could potentially see them slip another place in the world rankings, to a disastrous 8th, so if ever there was motivation to turn things around, surely this is it. $2.05 for an Australian upset in Salta looks like the best bet of the week.
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