New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons (Game 3)
It all comes down to this. The 2025 State of Origin decider heads to Stadium Australia in Sydney, with the series locked at 1-1. NSW are favourites at $1.40 to win on home soil, while QLD are $3 outsiders, looking to spoil the party and claim another famous series victory.
New South Wales Blues: Game 3 Preview
NSW coach Laurie Daley has named an unchanged starting side for the State of Origin decider on July 9 at Accor Stadium, sticking with the 17 that narrowly went down to Queensland in Game Two.
The Blues took out Game One with an 18-6 win in Brisbane but couldn’t complete the series in Perth, falling 26-24 after a spirited second-half comeback. Trailing 26-6 at halftime, the Blues piled on 18 unanswered points, with Brian To'o bagging a hat-trick and both Stephen Crichton and Angus Crichton also finding the line.
Goalkicking was again an issue, just as it was in Game One. With Nathan Cleary nursing a groin injury, Zac Lomax took over the duties in Perth and landed just two of five conversion attempts.
Despite injury clouds, key playmakers Cleary (groin) and Jarome Luai (infection) have both been named and are expected to take the field. Winger Brian To’o, who has been managing a hamstring issue in recent weeks, also suffered a minor knee concern in Thursday night’s match against the Bulldogs. He played through the discomfort with strapping and iced the knee post-game. With nine days to recover, the Blues remain confident he’ll be fit for Game Three.
Daley has also named Bulldogs winger Jacob Kiraz as 18th man, Panthers forward Lindsay Smith in the No.19 jersey, and Knights centre Bradman Best in the No.20 spot, providing cover across multiple positions.
Queensland Maroons: Game 3 Preview
Queensland bounced back in classic fashion after a poor Game One showing, turning the tide with a gritty 26-24 win in wet conditions in Perth — their first-ever Origin win in Western Australia. The Maroons exploded out of the gates in Game Two, piling on 26 first-half points before going scoreless in the second half. Despite the drop in intensity, their early dominance proved enough to square the series.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow continued his strong Origin form with two tries, while new skipper Cameron Munster rose to the occasion, scoring a try in the 30th minute and earning Man of the Match honours in his first game as captain. Val Holmes was faultless with the boot, slotting all four conversions — a crucial difference in the narrow two-point win.
Billy Slater has named a mix of experience and youth for the decider. Veteran prop Josh Papalii returns from Origin retirement to play his 24th game for Queensland, replacing Moeaki Fotuaika in the starting pack. Debutant Gehamat Shibasaki earns his first Maroons jersey following standout form for the Broncos and slots into the centres, with Hamiso moving to fullback to cover the injured Kalyn Ponga.
Kurt Capewell retains his starting back-row spot after a strong performance in Game Two, while Pat Carrigan and Jeremiah Nanai will once again come off the bench to bring energy and aggression, mirroring the strategy that worked early in Game Two.
Reece Walsh, J’maine Hopgood and Josh Kerr are part of an extended squad for the first time this series, offering depth and flexibility ahead of what’s expected to be a brutal decider in Sydney.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at Stadium Australia, both the Blues and Maroons have won 5 games each. QLD won the last clash in Game 1 last year.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 State of Origin meetings, the series is tied 5-5. NSW won 3 of the last 4, including last year’s decider.
Best Bet
Both teams have strike power, but with the pressure of a decider, I'm leaning towards a tighter contest. The Under also has a great record in Game 3, going 5-0 since 2019.
Same Game Multi
We know the Queenslanders love an underdog tag and that should work nicely into their favour. QLD are 5-1 as an Origin underdog and the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 Origin games. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is back at fullback and will be dangerous. He comes off 4 tries at club level against Souths and scored a double in Game 2.
Maroons +7.5 / Under 43.5 pts / Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer = $7.50
Man Of The Match
- Nathan Cleary (NSW): If NSW dominate, Cleary will control tempo and likely be in everything. But his groin injury is a concern, especially if he can't do the goal kicking again.
- Payne Haas (NSW): A powerhouse in the middle, he can set the tone early with metres and defence. Got MOM in Game 1 and if NSW win, I think he'll be right up there in the votes.
- Cameron Munster (QLD): The Maroons’ x-factor, Munster can steal the show if he gets space and confidence. The new Maroons skipper got the MOM in Game 2 and if QLD win again, he'll probably get it again.
- Dylan Edwards (NSW): A high work rate and safe under the high ball; could be a surprise winner with a big game. He has also got MOM in Origin before.
- Isaah Yeo (NSW): A consistent link man and defensive leader, he’ll be key in keeping structure. Probably needs a try to get the MOM but he'll stand out if NSW win.
- Harry Grant (QLD): If QLD win, it’s likely off the back of Grant’s energy and creativity from dummy-half. But it hasn't been the best Origin series from Grant.
Best Bet
Anytime Tryscorer - Value Bets
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD): Electric speed and strong Origin scoring record make him a genuine threat at $2.50.
- Stephen Crichton (NSW): Always around the ball and strong in set plays — great value for a centre.
- Gehamat Shibasaki (QLD): The debutant may be targeted, but that also gives him scoring opportunities on the edge.
- Nathan Cleary (NSW): Loves taking on the line near the try-line - value pick at big odds.
- Josh Papalii (QLD): Veteran forward who’s scored in Origin before - could power over near the line.
- Kurt Capewell (QLD): Aerial threat and strong runner on an edge - sneaky try chance. Scored in Game 2 as well.
- Cameron Munster (QLD): Loves the big stage and always has a chance with his step and fend. Found the line in Game 2.
- Angus Crichton (NSW): Powerful runner close to the line - scored in Game 2.
