Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales (Game 2)
Game 2 of State of Origin is this Wednesday night as the Maroons look to bounce back from a poor effort in Game 1 on their home turf. But the Blues are looking strong and eager to close out the series away from home in Perth. Here's a betting preview of Game 2.
Queensland Maroons: Game 2 Preview
The Maroons come into Game 2 in unfamiliar territory, trailing the series 0-1 after a flat performance in the Origin opener at Suncorp Stadium. The 18-6 loss to the Blues wasn’t just disappointing for the scoreboard, but also raised deeper concerns about cohesion, attack structure, and selection gambles that didn’t quite pay off.
At their fortress in Brisbane, Queensland were expected to come out firing. But from the opening whistle, they looked disjointed and tentative. The Blues dominated the ruck, which blunted Queensland’s go-forward and exposed the Maroons’ reliance on individual brilliance rather than structured sets.
One of the biggest issues was their forward pack - they got smashed. NSW produced 49 tackle breaks (49 missed tackles for QLD), over 100 more post contact metres and easily won the run metres (1753 to 1425). As a result, Queensland struggled to create quality scoring chances. Their only try came from a moment of individual spark rather than any real sustained pressure. Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster couldn't get into rhythm, and the Blues consistently won the kicking battle.
Coach Billy Slater’s faith in youth and debutants like Robert Toia and Trent Loiero showed mixed results. Toia was solid under pressure and Loiero battled hard but was part of a forward pack that ultimately got outmuscled.
For Game 2, Slater has rung the changes and he's gone straight to the top. Dropping captain Daly Cherry-Evans in favour of Tom Dearden at halfback signals the end for DCE at Origin level. Dearden brings energy, speed, and a running game that could trouble the Blues’ middle defenders. The captaincy shifts to Cameron Munster, a proven Origin performer who thrives under pressure and will be desperate to inspire a response. Kurt Mann is a versatile addition who offers cover across multiple positions, another area where Queensland looked short last time out.
Trent Loiero earns a promotion to the starting side, while Pat Carrigan drops to the bench — likely to manage his minutes after battling injury concerns. Kurt Capewell’s inclusion gives the side more defensive steel on the edge, replacing the out-of-form Jeremiah Nanai.
The key for Game 2 will be unlocking their backs. Ponga, Tabuai-Fidow and Valentine Holmes need early ball in space, and Dearden must take control and ease the pressure on Munster to do everything. The pack will also need to lift, particularly through the middle, where Carrigan, Lindsay Collins and Reuben Cotter can set the tone.
Queensland don’t have the best history in Perth. They’ve lost both previous Origin matches played at Optus Stadium — in 2019 (38-6) and 2022 (44-12) — both blowout wins for the Blues. It’s not just the scoreboard either — the Maroons have looked flat in Perth both times, struggling with travel, conditions, and the hostile neutral crowd.
That said, the pressure of a must-win game might help refocus the squad. Munster will remember the pain of that 2022 loss, and there’s enough leadership in this team to rally the younger players. The Maroons have often bounced back strongly after criticism and adversity, and this situation is tailor-made for one of those trademark Queensland responses.
Game 2 shapes up as a defining moment in the Maroons’ campaign — and perhaps the end of an era with DCE being dropped. Slater’s loyalty to youth is admirable, but Game 1 showed the importance of Origin experience and big-game temperament.
If Queensland are to win in Perth and send the series to a decider, they’ll need much more from their spine. Munster must dominate, Dearden has to rise to the occasion, and the forwards have to win the arm wrestle. It’s a big ask in a tough venue, but if any team can defy the odds, it’s Queensland with their backs to the wall.
New South Wales Blues: Game 2 Preview
The Blues head to Perth brimming with confidence after a dominant 18-6 victory in Game 1 at Suncorp Stadium — a ground where wins are typically hard to come by. It wasn’t just the result that impressed, but the way Laurie Daley’s side executed their game plan with discipline, defensive steel, and an edge in physicality. With a 1-0 series lead, NSW now have a golden opportunity to wrap up the 2025 Origin series in straight sets.
Game 1 at Suncorp was a tactical masterclass from New South Wales. From the outset, they brought relentless line speed in defence, shutting down Queensland's halves and denying any attacking fluency. Their pack, led by Isaah Yeo, Payne Haas and Liam Martin, won the battle in the middle, giving their spine a platform to control the contest.
Mitchell Moses, starting at five-eighth, justified his selection with a controlled kicking game and calm decision-making under pressure. His combination with Nathan Cleary clicked straight away, as the pair orchestrated repeat sets and kept Queensland constantly turning around. Dylan Edwards was superb at the back — safe under the high ball and always present in support.
But perhaps most pleasing for Laurie Daley was the team’s defence. NSW held the Maroons to just one try — and didn’t concede a point in the final 30 minutes. They scrambled, communicated, and forced errors from frustrated Queensland playmakers. Expect the Blues to stick with a similar formula: kick long, dominate territory, and suffocate Queensland with relentless line speed and disciplined defence.
Some changes to the team for Game 2 include Jarome Luai replacing the injured Mitchell Moses. Luai has a great combo with Nathan Cleary and he also played in last year's series, so the Blues won't be losing much with Luai into the 6 jersey. Mitch Barnett did his ACL in a cruel blow so the Storm's Stefano Utoikamanu will take his place.
The Blues have a perfect record at Optus Stadium, having won both previous Origins in Perth in emphatic fashion — 38-6 in 2019 and 44-12 in 2022. It’s clear the travel west doesn’t bother them, and they’ve relished the dry, fast conditions.
Daley has often talked about “owning the big moments” and in Perth, NSW have done just that. Their attack has clicked in both games there, and the wide surface has allowed their backs to find space and time — something the current NSW lineup is built for.
Everything is set up for NSW to claim their second straight Origin series — and do it in style. They’ve got momentum, form, health, and a dominant Game 1 win under their belt. Most importantly, they appear unified and confident, something that has often been missing in past campaigns.
The key to victory in Game 2 will be composure. If the Blues don’t get drawn into a Queensland scrap and instead stick to their structures, their forward depth and backline firepower should carry them through. Cleary will again be vital — especially if he can turn field position into points early and put scoreboard pressure on the Maroons.
Stadium Record
QLD are 0-2 at this venue as NSW have won both Origin matches here.
Head to Head Record
Over the last 10 games, the Maroons and Blues have been evenly matched, each securing five victories.
Best Bet
NSW are heavy favourites to seal up the series but we know QLD won't be backing down without a fight. So I prefer to bet on the points and I like the Over trend. It's saluted in 7 of the last 10 Game 2 matchups as both sides are usually better in attack after Game 1. The Over is also 2-0 in Origin games in Perth, which should be a key factor.
Same Game Multi
Lomax has been loving the Origin arena, especially when it comes to tries. He's scored in 3 of his 4 Origin games and that includes 2 doubles. For QLD, I think Coates is the best chance to score if they get their kicking game right. He scored in Game 1 of the series and has scored in 3 of his last 5 Origin games. Plus the aerial matchup between To'o and Coates is obviously in the QLDers favour.
Over 40.5 / Zac Lomax Anytime Tryscorer / Xavier Coates Anytime Tryscorer = $5.60
Man Of The Match
Nathan Cleary (NSW): The short priced favourite and it's hard to back against him if the Blues get up. He had 20 runs in Game 1 and broke 10 tackles. While he didn't score a try, if he keeps running the ball, it's a good chance to happen in Game 2.
Dylan Edwards (NSW): He had a strong Game 1. He finished with 1 try, 1 try assist, 1 line break and 5 tackle breaks. His run metres total was only 119 so he'll need to be pushing the 200 mark and will likely need another try to get MOTM.
Payne Haas (NSW): In Game 1, the numbers speak for themselves. He had 61 post contact metres, 18 hit-ups, 3 tackle breaks, 3 offloads and made 30 tackles. He's a massive chance of MOTM if NSW win.
Jarome Luai (NSW): Luai will be looking to cement his place in the 6 jersey and he was impressive last year. But missing Game 1 and only a few training sessions with the Blues may hurt him.
Isaah Yeo (NSW): Yeo was on a mission in Game 1. He finished with 64 post contact metres and broke 5 tackles. Not out of the question if NSW win.
Cameron Munster (NSW): The new Maroons skipper will be out to prove himself in Game 2 after an average effort in Game 1, highlighed by 10 missed tackles. Will need to find the line and lead QLD to victory to be a chance of MOTM.
Tom Dearden (NSW): The future of the Maroons at halfback and he's probably the best bet to get MOTM for the underdog QLDers. He can score a try or two and will be damaging if the QLD forward pack step up.
Kalyn Ponga (NSW): Had a quiet Game 1 but did his job in the run metres with 21 runs and 163 metres. If he's get on the end of some try assists and a try, he'll offer nice value if QLD win.
Best Bet
Best Value
Anytime Tryscorer - Value Bets
Dylan Edwards (NSW): He scored in Game 1 and now has 2 tries in 3 Origin games. Great value.
Nathan Cleary (NSW): Cleary has scored a double in the Origin arena and I like his runnning numbers in Game 1, so he could get there on Wednesday.
Kalyn Ponga (QLD): Ponga last scored an Origin try a few years ago and should get more attacking chances with DCE out.
Liam Martin (NSW): Martin scored a try in the last Origin over in Perth when NSW won 38-18.
Cameron Munster (QLD): Munster has scored an Origin try in 2 of his last 5 games and he'll be extra motivated to cross for the first time as QLD skipper.
Kurt Capewell (QLD): He scored a try in QLD's last Origin win and will be in the starting lineup, so he's a great good value bet.
