The fiercest rivalry in rugby league returns as State of Origin Game 1 kicks off the 2025 series at Suncorp Stadium, the spiritual home of Queensland rugby league. After a breakthrough series win in 2024, New South Wales are aiming to back it up, while Queensland, under Billy Slater, look to restore dominance in front of a massive Brisbane crowd. Let’s get into the betting predictions, value picks and player props for Game 1.
Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales (Game 1)
Coach Billy Slater has named a Queensland Maroons squad that blends experience with youth, which is kind of due to a few untimely injuries to several key players. As a result, the team will feature multiple debutants in Game 1. One of the most talked-about selections is Roosters rookie Robert Toia, who has been rewarded for his strong NRL form with a surprise debut in the centres. This move pushes veteran Valentine Holmes—typically a centre in recent Origin series—back to the wing, where he has previously starred in Maroons colours.
Adding further freshness to the squad, Slater has also called up Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero, both of whom are expected to make their Origin debuts from the interchange bench. Their inclusion sees Slater's commitment to developing Queensland’s next generation while maintaining loyalty, such as DCE at halfback.
There were concerns surrounding Patrick Carrigan’s availability due to a recent ankle injury scare, but he has been named and is expected to lead from the front in the forward pack. Slater, speaking to the media, expressed strong faith in the group’s ability to rise to the occasion, noting that while the lineup includes fresh faces, it is still “dripping with Origin class.” The coach praised the adaptability of his squad and suggested that the Queensland spirit - so often the difference in close contests - will once again be crucial in this series opener.
NSW Coach Laurie Daley has taken a measured and conservative approach to selection for State of Origin Game 1, choosing to build on continuity rather than overhaul. Of the 17-man squad, 16 players return from last year’s campaign, which shows his trust in the existing core group and their understanding of Origin intensity. The only fresh face is a lone debutant, highlighting Daley’s belief that stability and experience will be key in taking down the Maroons on their home turf.
One of the most significant selection calls was naming Mitchell Moses at five-eighth ahead of the more unpredictable Jarome Luai. Moses brings a composed kicking game, strong organisation and was man of the match in Game 2 last year with Nathan Cleary on the sidelines. The return of Latrell Mitchell to the centres is another major talking point. Latrell's power running and big-game temperament could be crucial in both attack and defence, especially matched against Queensland’s newer outside backs.
At fullback, Dylan Edwards has retained the No.1 jersey, edging out long-time custodian James Tedesco. Edwards’ consistency, positional play, and elite fitness levels give the Blues a workhorse at the back, though the call to leave out the Origin veteran has not gone unnoticed by fans and media alike.
However, the squad is not without its question marks. Injuries to key strike centre Bradman Best and forward Jacob Saifiti have thinned the Blues' options, while the omission of red-hot Roosters prop Terrell May, who has been among the most in-form middle forwards in the NRL this season, has raised eyebrows. Critics argue that the squad may lack impact off the bench and flexibility in key positions, should injuries strike during the match. Daley, however, remains firm in his belief that this group has the chemistry and maturity to execute his game plan and finally reclaim Origin dominance.
Stadium Record
QLD have 7 wins in the last 10 games at Suncorp Stadium. NSW are just 3-7 in their last 10 but they secured their first series win since 2021 and their first decider victory at Suncorp in 2024.
Head to Head Record
Over the last 10 games, the Maroons are 6-4. The Blues won the last series 2-1. Since 2018, the Blues have won 4 series and the Maroons have 3 victories.
Best Bet
The Blues come into Game 1 as favourites but we know the Queenslanders love to be the underdogs, especially on their home turf at Suncorp. So I think there is merit in betting on QLD to cover the short line. But the points should be a bit more safer. In Origin, games are usually focused on defence and big hits, which is great for the Under. The trends agree - the Under is 10-4 in the last 14 Origin games.
Same Game Multi
With the Maroons strong record at Suncorp Stadium — winning 7 of their last 10 Origin games there — QLD at +2.5 is a smart play. They won't be happy about last year's loss at Suncorp and it wouldn't surprise me if they won Game 1. Queensland's defensive grit at home has held the Blues to 20 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games at Suncorp. With several new faces in NSW’s attack and Origin typically being low-scoring, they should fall under the 20.5 mark. The “Hammer” has scored 4 tries in 3 Origin games, including two blistering tries in last year’s series. With his electric speed and lethal finishing, he's always a threat — especially against reshuffled backlines.
QLD Maroons +2.5 / NSW Under 20.5 pts / Anytime Tryscorer - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow = $4.50
Man Of The Match
Nathan Cleary (NSW): He's back in the Origin arena after missing last year with a shoulder injury. His club form this year hasn't been as good as the past, but if NSW win Game 1, he'll be right up there in the man of the match votes.
Mitchell Moses (NSW): As the starting five-eighth, Moses' playmaking abilities and kicking game could be pivotal in NSW's attacking strategy. He was impressive in last year's series as NSW halfback, but a change to 5/8 might not be his best position.
Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD): This could be DCE's last Origin series before the Queenslanders look to their youth, so I think he'll know that and will be out there to prove himself. He last won man of the match in Game 1 last year, a game that QLD won 18-14. So he's probably the safest bet if the Maroons win.
Cameron Munster (QLD): Returning after missing last year's series, Munster's experience and flair make him a strong candidate. He's been in great form at club level with the Storm and his injury issues of the past aren't bothering him at this stage. He last won MOM in 2022, Game 1, so he can win it.
Kalyn Ponga (QLD): Ponga gets his fullback jersey back after Walsh's injury and he's no stranger to getting man of the match. He last won it in 2023 and 2022, both Game 3's. So he's a proven performer at Origin level, especially in the big games.
Dylan Edwards (NSW): The Panthers fullback didn't look out of place last year and gets rewarded with a Game 1 jersey over Teddy. He delivered in NSW's Game 3 victory, picking up man of the match honours in just his second Origin game.
Latrell Mitchell (NSW): Back in the centres, Mitchell's power and agility can break defensive lines and create scoring opportunities. If NSW get the win and he scores a try, he offers huge value.
Best Bet
Best Value
Anytime Tryscorer
Zac Lomax (NSW): Lomax scored 3 tries in last year's series, including a double at the MCG in Game 2. He'll get plenty of chances on the wing.
Xavier Coates (QLD): A proven Origin performer, Coates is paying $2.20 to score anytime. He's scored 10 tries in 10 NRL games this season and if QLD get their kicking game right, I don't see the Blues having much chance of stopping him in the air.
Brian To'o (NSW): To'o's agility and strength make him a consistent tryscoring threat. He scored a double in Game 2 last year.
Valentine Holmes (QLD): Holmes has a history of scoring in Origin matches, making him a reliable pick.
Latrell Mitchell (NSW): Mitchell's ability to break tackles and create opportunities positions him as a key tryscoring candidate.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD): His speed and agility make him a constant danger to defences. He scored a hat-trick in Game 1 last year and picked up 4 tries in the series. Should be a great bet to cross the line.
Best Bets
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD) = $2.50 & Latrell Mitchell (NSW) = $2.40
