2025 NRL Round 4 Betting Predictions
The NRL season is in full swing and the Round 4 action kicks off with Cleary up against Bennett in the coaching box as the Bunnies host the Panthers on Thursday night footy.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (11th) vs Penrith Panthers (12th)
The Rabbitohs will be eager to bounce back after their Round 3 loss to Cronulla, where they started slow but finished strong. Playing their first game at Accor Stadium this season, they’ll have the home crowd behind them as they look to snap a tough run against the Panthers, having won just two of their last 14 meetings. The return of club legend Alex Johnston is a massive boost, while Isaiah Tass shifts to the centres in place of the injured Campbell Graham. Can Souths turn their late-game fight from last week into a full 80-minute performance?
The Panthers are in unfamiliar territory, riding a two-game losing streak and dealing with key injuries. With Nathan Cleary sidelined due to concussion protocols, young Trent Toelau will take over at halfback, while Daine Laurie returns at fullback after overcoming a quad injury. Despite their setbacks, Penrith has dominated this matchup in recent years and has won five straight at Accor Stadium, including two grand finals. With their depth being tested, can the reigning premiers rediscover their winning form on the road?
Stadium Record
South Sydney are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Stadium Australia. Penrith are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers are 8-2 against the Rabbitohs.
Best Bet
I think Penrith will be fired up after last week and should get the win over Souths. They lost Cleary in the opening 10 wins last week and still came within a try of beating the Storm in Melbourne.
Penrith Panthers -10.5 = $1.95
Same Game Multi
Paul Alamoti has scored 4 tries already in 2025 and offers nice value to score anytime. The Over is 4-0 when these two sides play at Stadium Australia and the Panthers defence hasn't been as good this year with a few faces leaving.
Penrith Panthers -10.5 / Paul Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer / Over 49.5 = $4.00
Sydney Roosters (14th) vs Gold Coast Titans (8th)
The Roosters are looking to bounce back after a loss to the Warriors last week. They’ll be boosted by the return of key forwards Lindsay Collins and Nat Butcher, though they’ll be without hooker Connor Watson due to concussion protocols. Zach Dockar-Clay steps in at hooker, while Chad Townsend continues to lead the team at halfback. The Roosters have a dominant record against the Titans, having won their last 11 meetings. Winger Dominic Young has also been in great form at Allianz Stadium, scoring 15 tries in 12 games there.
The Titans enter this match with confidence after a strong win over the Knights. However, they’ll be without fullback Keano Kini, who is out with a neck injury. Jaylan De Groot steps in for his second NRL game. The halves pairing of AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell has shown promise, while big names like David Fifita and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui will look to dominate in the forward pack. This will be the Titans’ first-ever match at the new Allianz Stadium, giving them an unfamiliar challenge against a Roosters team that has historically had their number.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Roosters are 9-0 against the Titans since 2018.
Best Bet
The Over has a nice trend in this matchup, it's 5-0. Both sides can score quickly.
Dolphins (15th) vs Brisbane Broncos (5th)
The Dolphins are still searching for their first win of the season after a strong start against the Wests Tigers last week, only to fade in the second half. They’re looking to repeat last year’s 40-6 victory over the Broncos in this year’s Battle for Brisbane. Key to their chances is fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who will be pivotal in attacking the Broncos' defense. The Dolphins are sticking with the same 17 players, including Jack Bostock and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, who returned from injury last week. They’ll need a form reversal to challenge the Broncos.
After a solid 26-16 victory over the Cowboys, the Broncos will be eager to secure another win over their Queensland rivals. They’ll be bolstered by the return of Kotoni Staggs, who’s been out with a quad injury. The Broncos’ forward pack, including Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, remains formidable. This will be a significant match for the Broncos, as their first-ever loss to the Dolphins in last year’s Battle for Brisbane still lingers. Key player Ben Hunt will make his top-10 all-time premiership appearances in this match. The Broncos are the clear favorites.
Stadium Record
Dolphins are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. Brisbane are 2-7 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at Suncorp.
Head to Head Record
The Broncos are 3-1 against the Dolphins.
Best Bet
Should be a tough Brisbane battle and the rain has hit Brissy again, making the Under a solid bet. It's 4-0 in this matchup too.
St. George Illawarra Dragons (13th) vs Melbourne Storm (1st)
The Dragons are still searching for their first win of the season, despite showing resilience in their past two matches. After a narrow loss to the Rabbitohs, where they led 24-12 before losing 25-24, the Dragons have had time to regroup with a Round 3 bye. This week, they face an undefeated Storm side at home. The Dragons have made several changes, including the debut of David Klemmer, a former Blues and Kangaroos prop, and Dylan Egan, who joins the interchange for his NRL debut. Despite injuries, such as a rib issue to Moses Suli, the Dragons will rely on players like Clinton Gutherson and Kyle Flanagan to perform.
The Storm are undefeated and coming off a hard-fought 30-24 win over the Panthers. Despite a few injury setbacks, including the loss of Jahrome Hughes and Nelson Asofa-Solomona , they remain a strong contender. With Tyran Wishart stepping in at halfback and Grant Anderson replacing Nick Meaney , the Storm’s depth is being tested. Their versatility and winning record, including 10 wins out of 12 away games last season, make them the favorites for this match. Players like Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen will lead the charge against the Dragons.
Stadium Record
St. George are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Kogarah. Melbourne are 2-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Storm have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, but the Dragons won in Melbourne last year 18-16.
Best Bet
The Over is a perfect 9-0 in the Storm's last 9 day games so I think both sides put up plenty of points.
North Queensland Cowboys (16th) vs Canberra Raiders (9th)
The Cowboys are still looking for their first win of the season despite showing some improvement last week in a close match against the Broncos. They had control early in the game but struggled to convert that into points. Their main challenge has been inconsistency in their fifth-tackle options and lack of experience, which has hampered their efforts. This week, the Cowboys are at home, where they have a strong recent record. Zac Laybutt, returning from an ACL injury, is among the reserves as he nears his NRL return. Players like Scott Drinkwater and Jake Clifford will need to lead their team for a breakthrough win.
The Raiders are coming off a tough loss to the Sea Eagles, where they were dominated early, trailing 30-0 at halftime. Despite scoring in the second half, the Raiders will be looking to bounce back and play with more urgency. The return of Joseph Tapine from suspension will strengthen their forward pack, and with Corey Horsburgh moving to lock, they will have an improved defensive structure. Xavier Savage will play his 50th NRL match, while Morgan Smithies is out due to concussion. The Raiders will need to improve their consistency, especially after the previous week's heavy defeat, if they are to challenge the Cowboys away from home.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. Canberra are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Cowboys hold a 7-3 record against the Raiders.
Best Bet
I think the Cowboys are looking stronger on paper and should be able to get their first win, especially at home. They've won their last 6 against Canberra too.
North Queensland Cowboys -1.5 = $2.00
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (6th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (2nd)
The Sharks come into this match with a solid 3-0 start to the season, including a dominant 27-12 win over the Rabbitohs. Their strong performance was anchored by impressive play from Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall, who both scored tries. The Sharks have been tough at home and will look to continue their strong run against the Bulldogs. However, they are dealing with some injuries, with Braden Hamlin-Uele sidelined and Siosifa Talakai recovering from an ankle injury. Tom Hazelton returns from a back injury to help bolster the forward pack. Jesse Ramien will also be marking his 150th NRL game.
The Bulldogs are undefeated after three rounds, including a hard-fought 16-8 win over the Eels. They’ve managed to perform well even without key players like Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau due to injuries. The team has been well-led by their halves, Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall, and has shown resilience despite missing key stars. Coach Cameron Ciraldo has opted to keep the same 17 that secured victory last week, with Bailey Hayward keeping the No.6 jersey. However, they face a tough challenge against the Sharks on their home turf, where they haven't won since 2011.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 6-3 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at Sharks Stadium.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Sharks hold a 4-1 record against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Should be a tough game between two sides that made the finals last year. The Dogs beat the Sharks last year so I think they can cover the underdog line.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs +11.5 = $1.90
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (3rd) vs Parramatta Eels (17th)
The Sea Eagles have made a strong start to the season, sitting in 3rd place on the ladder. A major talking point is the announcement from Daly Cherry-Evans that 2025 will be his final year with Manly, adding extra motivation for the team. Tom Trbojevic returns from a hamstring issue, bolstering their attack. The Sea Eagles have been dominant at home, winning 7 of their last 8 games at 4 Pines Park, with Trbojevic scoring 16 tries in his last 16 home games. They will look to maintain their good form against the Eels.
The Eels have struggled so far in 2025, sitting at the bottom of the ladder after three rounds. They have only one win from their last six games at 4 Pines Park, a tough challenge as they head into a match against the Sea Eagles. Joe Ofahengaue will mark his 200th NRL appearance, offering some leadership in their forward pack. The team is looking to turn their season around and will be hoping to claim a major scalp in Manly. Sean Russell and Daniel Keir are the changes in the lineup for this match.
Stadium Record
Manly are 7-2 (1 draws) in their last 10 games at Brookvale. Parramatta are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Eels are 3-2 against the Sea Eagles in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Not a lot of value in this game. If the Sea Eagles come to play, it will get ugly for an Eels side that is learning a new defensive system.
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles -18.5 = $1.95
Wests Tigers (4th) vs New Zealand Warriors (7th)
The Wests Tigers are showing promising form, with back-to-back victories following a slow start to the season. Their impressive performances have been sparked by the return of their first-choice spine: Jahream Bula, Lachie Galvin, Jarome Luai, and Api Koroisau. Their offense has been strong, putting up 62 points in their wins over the Eels and Dolphins. Defensively, they have the best record in the NRL after three rounds. The Tigers are aiming for a third consecutive win for the first time since 2018. Jeral Skelton, despite a hamstring issue, will feature, and Samuela Fainu also returns after a brief injury concern.
The Warriors have bounced back strongly from an early season defeat in Las Vegas, securing impressive wins over Manly and the Roosters. However, they will be without Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Adam Pompey shifts to the wing, and Rocco Berry returns to the centers. The Warriors have been dominant over the Tigers recently, winning seven consecutive games dating back to 2020. However, their recent struggles at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, with only one win from their last six visits, could be a concern as they travel to face the Tigers.
Stadium Record
Wests are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Campbelltown. New Zealand are 1-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Warriors are 5-0 against the Tigers in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Warriors are 7-0 against the Tigers and we haven't seen Wests string wins together for a while so I like NZ to potentially get an upset. They had a good win over the Roosters last week.
