2025 NRL Round 3 Betting Predictions
The NRL rolls on this weekend and Round 3 will kick off with a massive Grand Final rematch as the Storm host the Panthers at AAMI Park on Thursday night footy.
Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Penrith Panthers (10th)
The Storm enter this highly anticipated clash against the Panthers fresh off a bye, giving them ample preparation time to take on the reigning champions. Craig Bellamy’s men made a strong statement in Round 1 with a dominant win over the Eels, showing early signs of another premiership-contending season.
The return of enforcer Nelson Asofa-Solomona, who missed last year’s grand final due to suspension, is a huge boost for the Storm’s forward pack. His presence adds much-needed physicality and aggression, complementing a pack already featuring the likes of Harry Grant, Eliesa Katoa, and Josh King. In the backs, Ryan Papenhuyzen provides an electrifying presence at fullback, while Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes will look to control the game with their elite playmaking abilities.
Melbourne holds a strong record at AAMI Park, having won eight of their last nine encounters against the Panthers on home soil. With a well-balanced squad and a determination to avenge their grand final defeat, the Storm will be aiming to make an early-season statement.
The four-time defending premiers, the Penrith Panthers, arrive at AAMI Park looking to bounce back from a shock loss to the Roosters in their first match at their new home ground. Ivan Cleary’s squad has set the standard in the NRL over the past few seasons, and despite some early setbacks, they remain one of the strongest sides in the competition.
A major talking point for the Panthers is the absence of star fullback Dylan Edwards due to a groin injury. In his place, Daine Laurie steps into the No.1 jersey, tasked with filling the void left by one of the most reliable custodians in the game. Nathan Cleary, the heartbeat of the Panthers’ attack, will be instrumental in orchestrating their game plan alongside young five-eighth Jack Cole. The forward pack, led by Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, and Moses Leota, will need to assert dominance early to give their playmakers the best platform to work from.
Despite their recent struggles against the Storm in the regular season, Penrith will take confidence from their grand final victory, where their key players delivered in clutch moments. With Nathan Cleary chasing a club point-scoring record and Brian To’o looking to add to his impressive try-scoring tally against the Storm, the Panthers will be motivated to bounce back and prove why they remain the team to beat.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 8-2 in their last 10 games at AAMI Park. Penrith are 1-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers are 6-4 against the Storm.
Best Bet
Both sides can score points at will, as the Storm showed in Round 1 at this venue. They're now 7-1 against the Over in their last 8 and I think both sides can have success with ball in hand. Penrith's defence hasn't been as good this year, highlighted by allowing 30+ pts last week.
Same Game Multi
Penrith won't be happy about last week's performance and I think they can keep this close to cover the underdog line.
Over 45.5 / Panthers +8.5 = $4.10
New Zealand Warriors (11th) vs Sydney Roosters (13th)
The Warriors return home to Go Media Stadium riding high after a resounding 36-16 victory over Manly. After a disappointing start in Las Vegas, they bounced back in style, proving their resilience. Coach Andrew Webster has opted for consistency, sticking with the same 17 that got the job done last week. Rocco Berry and Bunty Afoa are among the reserves, while Jacob Laban has been named as 18th man. Fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will celebrate his 50th game for the club, adding extra motivation as the Warriors aim to snap an eight-game losing streak against the Roosters.
The Roosters, fresh off a thrilling 38-32 win over the Panthers, welcome back key forwards Lindsay Collins, Spencer Leniu, and Victor Radley. Their inclusion bolsters a pack that was already impressive against Penrith. The Roosters dominated the Warriors on their last trip to Auckland, keeping them scoreless in a 14-0 shutout. Winger Dominic Young remains a major attacking threat, having scored 21 tries in his last 20 games. With confidence restored after a Round 1 loss, the Roosters will be determined to maintain their strong record against the Warriors.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 4-5 (1 draw) in their last 10 games at Mount Smart.
Head to Head Record
The Roosters are 5-0 against the Warriors in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Under is 5-0 when the Warriors host the Roosters at home and Sydney has allowed 0 pts at this venue in their last 2 games.
Brisbane Broncos (6th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (16th)
The Broncos return to Suncorp Stadium looking to bounce back from a high-scoring 32-24 defeat to the Raiders. Coach Michael Maguire has kept faith in the same 17 that featured last week, but star centre Kotoni Staggs is in the reserves and could be a late inclusion if he proves his fitness. Defence will be a key focus for Brisbane after conceding 32 points in their last outing, and they'll be eager to continue their dominance over the Cowboys, having won their last four encounters. Halfback Adam Reynolds is also on the verge of history, needing just 11 points to move into third place on the NRL's all-time point-scoring list.
The Cowboys, sitting winless after two rounds, have received a much-needed boost with the return of Jason Taumalolo, who slots straight into the starting lineup at prop. Maroons back-rower Jeremiah Nanai also returns after a week in Queensland Cup, while Jake Clifford gets his first game of 2025 after recovering from hernia surgery. The defence has been a major concern for the Cowboys, having conceded 78 points in their first two games, and they'll need a significant improvement to challenge their in-form Queensland rivals. With a strong record at Suncorp Stadium—winning four of their last five games there—the Cowboys will be hoping history is on their side as they aim for their first win of the season.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. North Queensland are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Broncos hold a 6-4 record against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
Defensively, the Cowboys have been awful this season and Brisbane weren't much better last week. Take the Over in the derby. The Over is also 7-0 in this matchup.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (8th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th)
The Cronulla Sharks enter this matchup in fine form, having dismantled the Cowboys in Townsville with an impressive attacking display. Their back five dominated, racking up nearly 900 run metres and 26 tackle breaks, showcasing their firepower out wide. Stability has been key to their success, with coach Craig Fitzgibbon opting to stick with the same 17 that secured victory last week. With Nicho Hynes steering the ship and Ronaldo Mulitalo proving lethal at Sharks Stadium, the home side will be confident of continuing their strong record against the Rabbitohs.
Meanwhile, South Sydney is aiming to extend their unbeaten start to the season despite missing key players. Under Wayne Bennett’s leadership, the Rabbitohs have overcome the absence of stars like Latrell Mitchell and Cameron Murray to notch wins over the Dolphins and Dragons. Jack Wighton's return from suspension bolsters the backline, while new signing Mikaele Ravalawa adds depth to their attack. The Bunnies haven’t enjoyed much success at Sharks Stadium in recent years, but a 3-0 start would be a statement of intent as they look to build momentum early in the season.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. South Sydney are 1-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head has is tied at 5-5 since 2018.
Best Bet
The Rabbitohs have looked good under Wayne Bennett and I think their defence can stand up against the Sharkies. The Under is also 5-0 in Souths last 5 away games.
Dolphins (15th) vs Wests Tigers (7th)
The Dolphins will be looking to secure their first win of the season when they host the Wests Tigers at Kayo Stadium on Saturday night. After a disrupted start to the season due to Cyclone Alfred, the Redcliffe-based side is eager to make the most of their homecoming. Despite their struggles, the Dolphins have an impressive record at their home ground, winning four of their six games played in Redcliffe. Coach Kristian Woolf has named the same 17 that went down to the Knights, with Jack Bostock (knee) and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (concussion protocol) expected to return from the reserves list.
For the Wests Tigers, Benji Marshall’s men will be brimming with confidence following their dominant win over the Eels last round. Off-season recruits Terrell May, Sunia Turuva, and Jarome Luai made an immediate impact, and their combination with emerging five-eighth Lachlan Galvin is showing promising signs. With an unchanged squad, the Tigers are aiming to break a troubling trend, having lost their last five games at Queensland venues. However, they will be boosted by the availability of fullback Jahream Bula, who has been named despite injury concerns.
Stadium Record
Dolphins are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Wests are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Dolphins are 2-1 against the Tigers since 2018.
Best Bet
The Dolphins attack hasn't been great so far and the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 as well.
Gold Coast Titans (12th) vs Newcastle Knights (4th)
The Titans have shown flashes of attacking brilliance in the early rounds but will need to shore up their defence after conceding 40 points in last week’s loss to the Bulldogs. With Alofiana Khan-Pereira sidelined, Tony Francis gets his chance on the wing, adding to an exciting backline led by AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell. Captain Tino Fa'asuamaleaui will be pivotal in the middle, while David Fifita’s impact off the bench could prove game-changing. Playing at home, the Titans will be desperate to bounce back and claim their first win of the season.
The Knights have started the season in red-hot form, with Kalyn Ponga leading the way as he sits atop the Dally M standings. His playmaking has been instrumental in Newcastle’s unbeaten run, and he’ll look to exploit the Titans’ defensive lapses. With Leo Thompson and Kai Pearce-Paul unavailable, Brodie Jones and Adam Elliott step into key forward roles, ensuring the Knights maintain their aggressive approach in the middle. A third straight win would mark Newcastle’s best season start in a decade, and they’ll back themselves against a Titans side struggling for consistency.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Newcastle are 1-6 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Knights are 6-4 against the Titans.
Best Bet
I'm banking on the Titans home record against the Knights as they've won the last 7.
Gold Coast Titans +2.5 = $1.90
Parramatta Eels (17th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd)
The Eels enter Round 3 desperate to turn their season around after a disastrous start, conceding 88 points in two games. Without star halfback Mitchell Moses, the attacking responsibilities fall heavily on Dylan Brown, who is determined to lift his form. Dean Hawkins gets his chance in the No.7 jersey, hoping to spark the struggling attack, while Junior Paulo and the forward pack will be out to make a statement against a physical Bulldogs side. With Josh Addo-Carr named among the reserves, his potential return could provide a much-needed boost. A win at home would help steady the ship, but it won’t come easy against an in-form Canterbury outfit.
Riding high after two strong wins, the Bulldogs arrive at CommBank Stadium full of confidence but will have to manage without key players Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau. Bailey Hayward steps in at five-eighth for his first career start in the role, while Sitili Tupouniua will aim to make an impact in the back row. Halfback Toby Sexton celebrates his 50th NRL game and will be eager to guide his side to another victory. Canterbury has struggled at this venue in recent years, winning just two of their last 16 games, but a dominant performance against the Titans last week suggests they are building momentum. If their attack fires again, the Bulldogs could extend Parramatta’s misery and continue their perfect start to the season.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canterbury are 5-13 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Eels hold an 8-2 record.
Best Bet
Parra are struggling without Moses and now meet the surging Doggies. This could get ugly if the Dogs bring their A game.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs -8.5 = $1.90
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (9th) vs Canberra Raiders (2nd)
The Sea Eagles are eager to bounce back after a surprising defeat to the Warriors last weekend. Despite injuries to key players, Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic, both have been cleared of serious harm and are expected to play. With a tough loss behind them, Manly knows that their performance needs to improve, especially after committing 12 errors in the previous game. Their attack remains potent with the return of Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans, but their defence will need to be tighter to fend off the resurgent Raiders.
The Raiders enter this match full of confidence after a dominant win over the Broncos. Their forward pack was a standout, and they are determined to replicate that physicality against the Sea Eagles. With the return of Xavier Savage from suspension, the Raiders are set to be even more dynamic in attack, especially with Savage's speed on the wing. Their defence will also play a crucial role, and having already beaten Manly at 4 Pines Park last year, they will be confident of securing another win in enemy territory.
Stadium Record
Manly are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Brookvale. Canberra are 2-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Sea Eagles are 8-4 against the Raiders.
Best Bet
Hopefully for Manly's sake, Turbo and DCE are fine because the Raiders are defying the odds at the moment. With the Sea Eagles firepower named, I think this will be a high-scoring affair. The Over is 7-0 in Manly's last 7.
