2025 NRL Round 27 Betting Predictions
It's the final round of the NRL season and the top 8 is still not completed, so it's a massive weekend for some teams around the league. It kicks off on Thursday night footy with a huge top 4 clash as the Broncos are looking to make it 2 straight losses for the Storm.
Brisbane Broncos (4th) vs Melbourne Storm (2nd)
The Broncos head into the last game of the regular season against the Storm with a top-four spot on the line, and their form’s peaking at the right time. They’ve won three straight and are 4-1 across their last five, fresh off a 38–30 shootout over the Cowboys in Round 26. The attack has real bite—3rd in the NRL for points scored and 2nd for tries—so they can pile it on when they click. The watch-out is errors (they’re among the worst in the comp there), which can hand the Storm cheap field position. Overall it’s a 14–9 season with solid splits (8–3 at home, 6–6 away). If they keep the ball tidy and let the strike power do its thing, they’re every chance to lock in that top-four finish.
The Storm roll into the last game of the regular season against the Broncos sitting comfy in 2nd with a home final locked in, but there’s still a statement to make. They’re 17–6 on the year, 4–1 across the last five, and travel nicely at 8–3 away. Last week’s 30-point thud to the Roosters at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium stings, but the season profile is still elite: 1st in the NRL for tries and 2nd for points scored. That strike power should ask plenty of questions of Brisbane. If they reset after the hiccup and play at their usual tempo, they’re every chance to finish strong and keep momentum rolling into the finals.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Melbourne are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Storm have won 9 games against the Broncos.
Best Bet
The Storm have got Hughes, Meaney and Coates back in the lineup so they'll be playing hard, especially after last week's shocker. So I like the Over, which is 9-1 when the Broncos face the Storm at home.
Same Game Multi
Papenhuyzen likes playing in QLD, he has scored in 7 of his last 8 games when the Storm play up north. Josiah Karapani has scored in 3 straight and I think he makes it 4 straight against a shaky Storm edge defence that leaked plenty of winger tries last week.
Over 48.5 / Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer / Josiah Karapani Anytime Tryscorer = $6.00
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (10th) vs New Zealand Warriors (6th)
The Sea Eagles take on the Warriors with everything on the line—sitting 10th, they basically have to win to sneak into the finals. It’s been a mixed run (11–12 overall, 2–3 in the last five) but they’ve found a bit of spark with back-to-back wins, including a 40–24 result over the Dragons in Round 26. Manly have been much tidier at home (7–4) than on the road (4–8), so if they keep that recent momentum rolling and cut out the lapses, they’re right in this one.
The Warriors head into this one against Manly with a top-four sniff still alive, sitting 6th and able to jump if results fall their way. It’s been a solid 14–9 season with balanced splits (7–5 at home, 7–4 away), though recent form is patchy at 2–3 and they’re coming off a tight 4-point loss to the Eels at Mount Smart. The big positive? They’re one of the best at looking after the footy—ranked 17th for errors made—so their set completion and field position should hold up. If they keep the mistakes down and turn pressure into points, they’re every chance to edge a finals-style arm wrestle with the Sea Eagles.
Stadium Record
Manly are 6-4 in their last 10 games at 4 Pines Park. New Zealand are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
The Under has a 4-0 record at this venue and the Warriors have struggled to score pts with their halfback out for the season.
Sydney Roosters (8th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (13th)
The Roosters hit this one with everything to play for—sitting 8th and a win punches their finals ticket—so expect some intent. They’re 12–11 overall and rolling nicely at 4–1 across the last five, fresh off a huge 40–10 statement over the Storm in Round 26. The attack stacks up (5th for points and 5th for tries), which suits a high-tempo derby against Souths. The watch-out is errors—they’re among the worst in the comp there (3rd most)—and the home split isn’t perfect at 5–6, though they’ve travelled OK at 7–5 away. If they keep the handling tidy and lean on that strike power, the Chooks have the momentum to get it done in a massive game.
The Rabbitohs head into the derby with a bit of swagger after three straight wins and a 40–0 thumping of the Dragons at Stadium Australia. It’s still been a rough year overall (9–14), and the attack has lacked punch (bottom-tier for points and tries), but they’ve cleaned up the handling—one of the better teams at limiting errors. The splits tell the story too: 6–6 at home, 3–8 on the road. Sitting 13th and playing for pride, they’d love nothing more than to spoil the Roosters’ party in a fierce rivalry spot—and on current form, they’re not without a shout.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. South Sydney are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Roosters are 4-1 against the Rabbitohs in the last 5.
Best Bet
I think the Roosters get the job done but it should be high scoring. They're 8-1 against the Over as a home team.
St. George Illawarra Dragons (15th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)
The Dragons finish up against the Panthers with nothing on the line ladder-wise (15th), but pride still matters. It’s been a tough year at 8–15 and they’ve dropped three on the trot, including a 16-point loss to Manly at Jubilee. Recent form is patchy (2–3 last five), and the road record has hurt (2–10) even though they’ve been serviceable at home (6–5). If they can start clean and keep the errors down, they can make it a scrap—but they’ll need to lift to match the Panthers’ tempo.
The Panthers face the Dragons with 7th spot locked in—can’t climb any higher—but they’ll still want a spark before finals after three straight losses. It’s been a 12–10 season and 2–3 across the last five, with a flat one last week (28–4 to the Bulldogs at Stadium Australia). They’re 6–6 at home and actually better away (6-1-4), so the big focus is cleaning up the start and getting their attack humming again. If they settle early and win field position, they’re a good chance to finish the regular season on a positive note.
Stadium Record
St. George are 6-4 in their last 10 games at WIN Stadium. Penrith are 2-3 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Panthers have won 4 games against the Dragons.
Best Bet
The Over is 4-1 when the Dragons host the Panthers at home.
Gold Coast Titans (17th) vs Wests Tigers (11th)
The Titans wrap up a rough season against the Tigers, sitting 17th but still a chance to dodge the wooden spoon if the Knights slip and they get the W. Form’s ugly—five losses on the bounce and 0–5 in the last five—and they’re coming off a 36–30 defeat to the Dolphins at Lang Park. It’s 5–18 overall with tough splits (2–9 at home, 3–9 away). The attack showed signs last week, but they’ll need to tidy up and finish sets to give themselves a shot here.
The Tigers finish up against the Titans after a solid-but-shy-of-finals year, sitting 11th and looking to end on a positive note. They’ve dropped two straight and are 2–3 across the last five, coming off a 24–10 loss to the Raiders in Canberra. The splits are pretty even (5–7 at home, 4–7 away), but the attack’s been the sticking point—bottom half for both points and tries (14th in each). Still, at 9–14 overall they’ve been competitive, and if they tidy up their sets and find a bit of polish in good ball, they’re a genuine chance to finish the season with a win.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue. Wests are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Titans hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
The Tigers to finish off the season with a win against a Titans side that has lost 12 of their last 13 in the sunshine state.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th)
The Bulldogs finish up against the Sharks with 3rd spot already locked in, so this is all about keeping the momentum humming into finals. They’re 16–7 on the year and coming off a statement 28–4 win over the Panthers at Stadium Australia, a nice response after a patchy 2–3 run across the last five. The splits look strong too—9–2 at home and 7–5 away—so they’ve travelled and hosted well all season. Even without ladder pressure, expect a pretty businesslike effort to bank form and stay sharp for next week.
The Sharks roll into the Bulldogs clash with a bit to play for—sitting 5th at 14–9 and a live chance at the top four if they win and the Broncos slip. Form’s strong (4–1 last five, W2) and they’re coming off a 40–16 thumping of the Knights at Sharks Stadium. The split’s the big talking point: rock-solid at home (10–2) but a lot shakier on the road (4–7), so travel could be the leveller. If they bring the same intent and tidy up away from home, they’re right in this, even against a Dogs outfit that’s already locked into 3rd.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. Cronulla are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Sharks have won 7 games against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
This should be a tough and defensive game, with the Under saluting. It's 5-1 in the Dogs last 6.
Dolphins (9th) vs Canberra Raiders (1st)
The Dolphins are right in the mix for a finals berth, sitting 9th and needing the Roosters to slip, so there’s plenty on the line against the Raiders. They’re coming off a 36–30 win over the Titans at Lang Park and while the recent run is a bit up-and-down (2–3 last five), the attack is legit—top of the comp for points and 2nd for tries. They’ve generally looked after the footy better this year and the splits are decent (6–5 at home, 5–7 away). If they bring that scoring punch and keep the errors down, they’re every chance to finish the regular season with a statement.
The Raiders roll into this one against the Dolphins with top spot locked up and a few big names getting a rest, but the form line still pops: 19–4 on the season, W3, and 4–1 across the last five after a comfortable 24–10 win over the Tigers in Canberra. They’ve travelled well (8–3 away) and been a wagon at home (11–1), and the profile is tidy—low error rate (ranked 17th for errors made is best; you’ve listed 14th, still solid) with top-four punch for both points and tries. Even with rotations, the system holds up, so the question is just intensity with nothing to gain. If they start clean and kick to corners, their depth can still make this a grind the Dolphins have to chase.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 4-3 at this venue since 2023. Canberra are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Raiders are 3-1 against the Dolphins since 2023.
Best Bet
The Dolphins are 4-0 against the Over and it should be good conditions for attacking footy.
Parramatta Eels (12th) vs Newcastle Knights (16th)
The Eels wrap up the season at home against the Knights with nothing but pride on the line, but they’ve found a little groove lately—back-to-back wins and 3-2 across the last five after edging the Warriors 26–22 in Round 26. It’s been a tough year overall (9–14) with the attack misfiring (bottom end for points and tries) and errors biting too, but the effort’s still there. The splits are what they are—5–6 at home, 4–8 away—so a familiar track should help. If they tidy up the handling and keep it tight through the middle, they can make this a proper scrap and finish on a positive note.
The Knights head to the Eels with the pressure on—sitting 16th and likely needing a win (if the Titans get up) to dodge the spoon. It’s been a rough stretch: eight straight defeats, 0–5 over the last five, and a 40–16 loss to the Sharks last start. The numbers tell the story too—most errors in the comp and the attack’s dried up (17th for both points and tries). They’re 6–17 overall with splits of 4–7 away and 2–10 at home, so the road hasn’t been kind either. If they can cut the mistakes and keep it tight through the middle, they’ve got a puncher’s chance—but they’ll need a big turnaround to finish on a high.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 6-4 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Newcastle are 1-2 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Eels hold a 7-3 record against the Knights.
Best Bet
I think Parra win this but the Under trend looks good, it's 7-1 in the Eels last 8 at this stadium.
