2025 NRL Round 16 Betting Predictions
The QLD Maroons made it 1-1 in the Origin series with a thrilling 26-24 victory over the Blues in wet conditions. Now, we turn our attention back to the NRL season with the Tigers hosting the Raiders on Friday night footy at Campbelltown. Here's a look at every game of Round 16 from a betting perspective.
Wests Tigers (13th) vs Canberra Raiders (2nd)
The Tigers head into this clash against the Raiders sitting 13th on the ladder and desperate to snap a four-game losing streak. They've had a rough run lately, winning just one of their last five games and coming off a narrow 4-point loss to the Panthers at Western Sydney Stadium. At home, their record stands at 2 wins and 5 losses, while they've been a bit more competitive on the road with a balanced 3-3 record. With a season tally of 5 wins and 8 losses, they'll be looking to turn things around and get back in the winner's circle.
The Raiders are flying high at the moment, sitting 2nd on the ladder and riding a four-game winning streak. They’re coming off a dominant 36-12 win over the Rabbitohs at home and have looked strong on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they’ve been a force—ranked 3rd in the NRL for points scored and 2nd for tries. They’ve also done well limiting their own mistakes, sitting 14th for errors made. With an impressive 11-3 record overall, they’ve been tough to beat at home (6-1) and solid on the road (5-2), and they’ll be confident heading into this matchup against the struggling Tigers.
Stadium Record
Wests are 2-8 in their last 10 games at Campbelltown. Canberra are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Raiders have won 8 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
The Raiders look tough to beat, especially if Luai doesn't backup from Origin as that would see a very inexperienced halves pairing. Canberra are 9-1 ATS and the Tigers have been poor after a bye, losing their last 14.
Same Game Multi
Strange is on fire, having scored 3 tries in his last 2 games. He's also scored in his last 3 games when the Raiders are a favourite on the road.
Raiders -9.5 / Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer = $5.50
New Zealand Warriors (3rd) vs Penrith Panthers (9th)
The Warriors are having a great season so far, sitting 3rd on the ladder with a solid 10-3 record. They’re coming off a massive 40-10 win over the Sharks in Round 14 and have now won two in a row. Their recent form has been strong, going 4-1 in their last five games, and they’ve been hard to beat at home with a 5-1 record. Away from home, they’ve also held their own with five wins from seven. One of their biggest strengths has been ball control—ranked 17th for errors made, they’ve done a great job of keeping mistakes to a minimum. They'll be full of confidence heading into this clash with the Panthers.
The Panthers are starting to find a bit of form with back-to-back wins, including a tight 18-14 victory over the Tigers in Round 14. They’ve won three of their last five and will be hoping to build some momentum as they push up from 9th on the ladder. Their season record sits at 5-7, and while they’ve struggled a bit at home (3-4), they haven’t been much better on the road either with just 2 wins from 6 away games. They'll need to lift against a strong Warriors side, but with a couple of wins under their belt, they'll fancy their chances.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 6-4 in their last 10 games at Mount Smart. Penrith are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Panthers are 4-1 against the Warriors in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Panthers have a 6-0 ATS as an underdog and I think they can keep it close in NZ.
Penrith Panthers +12.5 = $1.90
Dolphins (6th) vs Newcastle Knights (15th)
The Dolphins are on a roll right now, climbing to 6th on the ladder and riding a three-game winning streak. They absolutely smashed the Cowboys in Round 15 with a huge 58-4 win and have been in red-hot form lately, winning four of their last five. Offensively, they’re one of the best in the comp—ranked 2nd for both points and tries scored. Their season is nicely balanced at 7-7, with a 3-3 record at home and 4-4 on the road. They’ll be full of confidence heading into this clash with the Knights.
The Knights have had a tough season so far, sitting 15th on the ladder with a 5-9 record and coming off a close 4-point loss to the Roosters at home. They’ve only managed two wins from their last five games and haven’t been much better on the road, with a 3-4 away record. Scoring points has been a real struggle—they're ranked last in the NRL for both points and tries scored—and they’ve also had major issues with ball control, leading the comp in errors. They'll need a big turnaround to match it with the in-form Dolphins.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 0-1 at this venue. Newcastle haven't played here before.
Head to Head Record
The Knights are 4-1 against the Dolphins in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Knights don't mind an interstate game, they're 5-1 ATS on the road after a loss and get Bradman Best/Dom Young into their backline.
Newcastle Knights +11.5 = $1.95
South Sydney Rabbitohs (14th) vs Melbourne Storm (4th)
The Rabbitohs are doing it tough at the moment, sitting 14th on the ladder with a 6-8 record and coming off a narrow 6-point loss to the Bulldogs. They’ve dropped their last three games and have only picked up two wins from their last five. Scoring has been a real issue—ranked 16th in the NRL for both points and tries—which doesn't bode well heading into a clash with the Storm. Their home record is an even 4-4, and they’ve gone 2-4 on the road, so they'll need to lift across the board to get back on track.
The Storm are sitting nicely in 4th spot on the ladder and come into this one off the back of a strong 38-14 win over the Cowboys. They’ve now won two in a row and have been one of the best attacking teams in the comp, leading the NRL in both points and tries scored. Their overall record sits at 8-4, and they’ve been near unbeatable at home with six wins from seven. While they’ve had a couple of slip-ups on the road (2-3 away record), they’ll head into this clash with the Rabbitohs full of confidence and in solid form.
Stadium Record
South Sydney are 4-6 in their last 10 games at Stadium Australia. Melbourne are 11-8 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
The Storm are 4-1 against the Rabbitohs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Souths are 0-10 ATS when they play a team on a winning streak and they're record against Melbourne is really poor. Of course, it depends on how many players backup for the Storm.
Brisbane Broncos (7th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th)
The Broncos snapped a rough patch with a big 44-14 win over the Titans at Lang Park, which should give them a boost heading into this clash with the Sharks. They're sitting 7th on the ladder with a 6-7 record, but recent form hasn't been great—just one win from their last five. Offensively, they’ve been strong all season, ranked 4th in the NRL for both points and tries scored. However, ball control has been an issue, with the Broncos sitting 4th for most errors made. They’ve been solid at home (4-2), but struggled on the road (2-5), so they'll be looking to turn that around this week.
The Sharks head into this clash with the Broncos sitting 5th on the ladder after a solid 30-18 win over the Dragons at home. They’ve won three of their last five and are starting to build some consistency. Their season record stands at 8-6, with a strong 5-2 record at Sharks Stadium, while they've been a bit patchier on the road at 3-4. With a bit of momentum and home advantage on their side, they'll be keen to keep things rolling against a Broncos side that’s been up and down.
Stadium Record
Brisbane are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Suncorp. Cronulla are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Broncos hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
The Broncos are just 1-11 after a win and the Sharks don't have much impact from Origin.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks +4.5 = $1.90
Sydney Roosters (8th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (10th)
The Roosters are sitting 8th on the ladder with a 6-7 record, coming off a tight 12-8 win against the Knights in Round 15. They’ve won three of their last five games and are just about holding steady. Their form at home has been a bit shaky with a 3-4 record, and they’re pretty even away from home at 3-3. One thing that’s been holding them back is errors—they’re ranked 3rd in the league for mistakes made, which could be a problem against the Cowboys. Overall, they’ll be looking to keep the momentum going in this one.
The Cowboys are struggling right now, sitting 10th on the ladder with a 5-7 record and coming off a brutal 54-point loss to the Dolphins at home. They've dropped their last two games and have only managed one win in their last five. Their form at North Queensland Stadium is a bit mixed, with three wins, one draw, and three losses, while their away record is tougher at 2-4. One big problem for them has been ball control—they’re ranked 2nd in the league for errors made—which isn’t helping their chances against the Roosters. They’ll need to clean things up fast if they want to turn this around.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Queensland are 3-7 in their last 10 games at SFS.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Roosters hold a 3-2 record against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
The Roosters have a poor record at home this season and the underdog is 5-0 in their last 5 matches. I think the Cowboys keep this one within reach.
North Queensland Cowboys +7.5 = $1.90
Parramatta Eels (16th) vs Gold Coast Titans (17th)
The Eels are having a tough season, sitting 16th on the ladder with a 4-9 record and coming off a 30-12 loss to the Bulldogs at Stadium Australia. They’ve lost their last two games and have only won two of their last five. Scoring has been a real struggle for them—they’re ranked 15th in both points and tries scored—and ball control hasn’t helped either, with the team ranking 4th in the league for errors made. Their home form is patchy at 2-4, and they’ve been even worse on the road with just two wins from seven. They’ll need a big lift if they want to bounce back against the Titans.
The Titans have been surprisingly solid when it comes to keeping errors down, ranking 16th in the NRL for mistakes made, which is impressive given their tough season. They’re sitting 17th on the ladder with a 4-9 record but come into this game off a confident 28-8 win over the Sea Eagles at Robina Stadium. Their recent form is a bit patchy with two wins from the last five games, and their home record stands at 2-4, while they've struggled away with a 2-5 record. They’ll be hoping to build on that last win as they take on the struggling Eels.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 4-6 in their last 10 games at CommBank. Gold Coast are 0-4 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Eels hold a 8-2 record against the Titans.
Best Bet
Some of the trends are concerning for the Eels. They're just 1-9 ATS when they play a team below them on the ladder and after a bye, they've lost 6 straight. Moses and Dylan Brown are out too, so there goes the Eels spine. Gold Coast to get a much needed win.
