The NRL is back in Las Vegas for the second straight year and we have two interesting matchups on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders and Warriors are both looking to start their season on a high after missing the finals. Meanwhile, the Panthers and Sharks will have a rematch after facing each other in the finals last year.
Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors
The Raiders head to Las Vegas looking to improve on their 9th finish last year. They have a great record in Round 1, winning 5 of their last 6. So expect a good showing from Canberra in this one. However, I think their attack needs to show improvement. They finished last year with just 19.8 points per game, ranking them 15th in the NRL - near the bottom of the league. So Jamal Fogarty and Ethan Strange need to dominate the game in the halves. Their defence also struggled last year, allowing 25 points per game. If they can't handle the Warriors pack, it could be tough to see the Raiders getting an upset.
The Warriors were disappointing last year after a finals appearance in 2023. They won just 9 games last year and have now lost the services of Shaun Johnson at halfback. But they picked up James Fisher-Harris from the Panthers and his finals experience should be valuable. Luke Metcalf gets the nod at halfback and showed good signs last year. They have lost Watene-Zelezniak on the wing so they'll be hoping Roger Tuivasa-Sheck can have success on the wing. Discipline is the key for the Warriors, they finished last year as the 2nd best team in the NRL for errors made so they'll need to continue that in 2025 without Johnson steering them around.
Stadium Record
Canberra and New Zealand are 0-0 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
I think this is a tough matchup to pick in the head-to-head as both sides have plenty of question marks after missing the finals in 2024. So I like the chances of the Under. It's 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games and I think both sides lack attacking options this year.
Same Game Multi
I think the Raiders at +7.5 is a safe bet considering their Round 1 record and this should be a close game. Also, RTS has scored in his last 3 against Canberra and should get opportunities on the wing.
Under 42.5 / Canberra Raiders +7.5 / Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Anytime Tryscorer = $7.00
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
The Panthers begin their quest for a 5th straight Grand Final victory and their season will start over in Las Vegas. They'll be a bit weaker on paper without the likes of Luai and Fisher-Harris going to other clubs and To'o is out with injury. But Nathan Cleary is still out there and they've added the experience of Isaiah Papali'i. Last year, they were the best team in the NRL for points allowed (15.4 per game) and they have an excellent record against the Sharks. In last year's finals, they beat them 26-6. Before that, they smashed them 42-0 and 28-0 in 2023. So in the last 3 games, the Panthers have only conceded a total of 6 points against Cronulla - talk about dominance.
The Sharks get the tough matchup in Round 1, facing the reigning premiers. But I think playing them in Las Vegas should help level the playing field. Last year, the Sharks were a consistent team and they've now added Addin Fonua-Blake, which should help their forward pack against the best teams like the Panthers. Last season, they ranked 5th for points scored and 4th for points allowed. But they'll need Nicho Hynes to have a blinder against Cleary and hope their defence can lock down after a poor record against Penrith in the last 3 meetings.
Stadium Record
Penrith are 0-0 at this venue. Cronulla are 0-0 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
The Sharks record against the top teams isn't great and Penrith have smashed them in the last 3. So I like the Panthers to cover in Round 1.
Same Game Multi
I expect the Panthers defence to continue their dominance over the Sharks and the Under is 6-0 in the Panthers last 6 games. Paul Alamoti has scored in his last 2 games against the Sharks and will get plenty of ball with no To'o.
Penrith Panthers -2.5 / Under 40.5 / Paul Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer = $6.75
Sydney Roosters (3rd) vs Brisbane Broncos (12th)
The Roosters finished third last year with 16 wins but fell short in the finals, losing 48-18 to the Storm. They were an attacking powerhouse, leading the NRL with an average of 29.9 points per game. This season, they’ve brought in some fresh faces, including Robert Toia and Mark Nawaqanitawase, while experienced playmaker Chad Townsend will make his Roosters debut in the No.7 jersey. However, they’ll be missing some key players, with Joey Manu, Sam Walker, and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves all unavailable.
With new coach Michael Maguire at the helm, the team is looking to tighten up their defence after giving up 25.3 points per game last season. Cory Paix has earned the starting hooker spot after an impressive preseason, while former Bronco Gehamat Shibasaki gets a start in the centres. Kotoni Staggs is sidelined with a quad injury, and Ben Hunt will wear the No. 6 jersey for the Broncos in his first game since making the switch from the Dragons.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 0-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Roosters hold a 4-1 record against the Broncos.
Best Bet
I think this should be a Thursday night grind and the Broncos have a 4-0 Unders record in Round 1 games.
Wests Tigers (17th) vs Newcastle Knights (8th)
After finishing last in 2024 with just six wins, the Tigers are hoping for a much better season in 2025. Their defence was a major issue, conceding 31.3 points per game—the worst in the NRL. Big signing Jarome Luai makes his first appearance in Tigers colours and will captain the side with Api Koroisau out due to suspension. Star fullback Jahream Bula is also sidelined after appendix surgery, giving Heath Mason the No.1 jersey. Another former Panther, Sunia Turuva, debuts on the wing, while Terrell May, Jack Bird, Jeral Skelton, and Royce Hunt all play their first NRL game for the Tigers.
The Knights finished 8th last season but were knocked out of the finals by the Cowboys in a 28-16 loss. Former Raider James Schiller will make his club debut on the wing, while young gun Fletcher Sharpe gets a shot at five-eighth after impressing in the trials, partnering Jack Cogger in the halves. Phoenix Crossland, who played halfback last season, shifts to hooker, with Jayden Brailey moving to the bench. The forward pack looks strong, with Jacob Saifiti and Leo Thompson up front and a powerful back row featuring Kai Pearce-Paul, Dylan Lucas, and Tyson Frizell. Meanwhile, experienced players Jackson Hastings and Adam Elliott have been named among the reserves.
Stadium Record
Wests are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Since 2018, Newcastle have a 2-1 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Knights have won 8 games against the Tigers.
Best Bet
Expecting points to flow on Friday night footy as the Over is 9-0 when these two teams play each other.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (16th) vs Dolphins (10th)
The Dolphins just missed out on the finals last year, finishing with an even attack and defence—scoring and conceding 24 points per game. New head coach Kristian Woolf has named newly appointed captain Tom Gilbert to make his long-awaited return at lock, while Max Plath starts in the second row alongside new recruit Kulikefu Finefeuiaki. Vice-captain Felise Kaufusi moves into the middle, partnering another new signing, Daniel Saifiti, at prop. Junior Tupou makes his club debut on the wing, filling in for 2024 Dally M Rookie of the Year Jack Bostock, who is out with a knee injury. After an impressive preseason and some strong performances for Fiji in the Pacific Championships, the versatile Kurt Donoghoe earns a spot on the bench.
The Bunnies had a rough season last year, finishing second last with just seven wins and struggling defensively, conceding 28.4 points per game. They’re already dealing with some big injury setbacks, but there’s a huge boost with Campbell Graham returning earlier than expected from a hand injury, while Junior Tatola is also good to go after a foot issue. Jye Gray takes over at fullback with Latrell Mitchell out, and Isaiah Taas and Tyrone Munro line up on the wings. Jamie Humphreys partners skipper Cody Walker in the halves, while Peter Mamouzelos starts at hooker. Former Dolphin Lachlan Hubner makes his club debut at lock, and ex-Tiger Jayden Sullivan grabs a bench spot alongside Tallis Duncan, Siliva Havili, and Tatola.
Stadium Record
South Sydney are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. The Dolphins are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
The head-to-head is tied at 1-1.
Best Bet
Souths start the season at home now due to the Cyclone but they'll be without Latrell and Cam Murray. They've also lost their last 7 games. So I like the Dolphins to get the job done.
St. George Illawarra Dragons (11th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (6th)
The Dragons picked up 11 wins last season and are looking stronger, but they’ll need to tighten up their defence and find more scoring options. Powerhouse winger Christian Tuipulotu returns from a hamstring injury, slotting into the only change from the team that beat the Rabbitohs in Mudgee. Jacob Liddle joins the bench in place of Connor Muhleisen, while Tyrell Sloan and Loko Pasifiki Tonga are among the reserves. Dylan Egan has been named as the 18th man.
The Bulldogs made the finals last year with 14 wins, thanks to a strong defence that ranked third in the NRL, conceding just 18.3 points per game. Marcelo Montoya returns to Canterbury after four seasons with the Warriors and starts on one wing, with Blake Wilson on the other. Kurt Mann gets the nod at lock, while Jaeman Salmon shifts to the bench alongside Bailey Hayward, Harry Hayes, and former Rooster Sitili Tupouniua, who makes his club debut.
Stadium Record
St. George are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canterbury are 2-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Bulldogs are 4-1 against the Dragons in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
The Doggies are 4-0 in their last 4 away from home and they've won the last 8 night games against the Dragons.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs -4.5 = $1.95
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (7th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (5th)
After finishing 7th last season with 13 wins, the Sea Eagles are aiming for a top-four spot after making it to the semi-finals before a tough 40-16 loss to the Roosters. They get a big boost with prop Taniela Paseka and winger Jason Saab both cleared to play. Tom Trbojevic takes his usual spot at fullback, with Reuben Garrick and Tolu Koula in the centres. Former Warrior Jazz Tevaga starts at hooker with Lachlan Croker sidelined, while another new recruit, Siosiua Taukeiaho, lines up at prop. Jake Simpkin is the backup hooker, joined on the bench by Corey Waddell, Ethan Bullemor, and Toafofoa Sipley.
The Cowboys had a solid season last year, winning a final and finishing third in the NRL for points scored with an average of 27 per game. Young gun Tom Duffy is set to make his NRL debut, partnering with Tom Dearden in the halves. With club stalwarts Kyle Feldt and Valentine Holmes moving on, Braidon Burns gets the nod on the wing after earning praise from coach Todd Payten for his composure under the high ball, while promising youngster Jaxon Purdue takes over in the centres. New recruit John Bateman slots straight into the starting second row with Heilum Luki out for the season, and fellow signing Karl Lawton will provide utility value off the bench. Meanwhile, Jason Taumalolo, still recovering from a Lisfranc injury, has been named among the reserves.
Stadium Record
Manly are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Queensland are 3-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Sea Eagles hold a 3-2 record against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
I like the Cowboys as an underdog, they're 4-1 as an outsider and Manly has struggled in Round 1 matches usually, covering the line in just 2 of 11.
North Queensland Cowboys +7.5 = $1.90
Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Parramatta Eels (15th)
The Storm finished first last year but fell short in the grand final, losing 14-6 to the Panthers. They were second in points scored, averaging 29 per game, and also had one of the best defences, conceding just 18 points per game. There's good news for Melbourne with Jahrome Hughes, Xavier Coates and Ryan Papenhuyzen all cleared to play in the season opener. Former Tiger Stefano Utoikamanu makes his club debut in the front row, with no other changes to the starting side from last year's grand final. Tui Kamikamica moves to the bench after starting in the decider too.
Parramatta had a tough season last year, finishing 15th with just seven wins, and their defence was a major issue, conceding 29.8 points per game. In Jason Ryles' first season as coach, there’s some excitement with Isaiah Iongi at fullback and star recruit Zac Lomax in the centres. Ronald Volkman takes over at halfback with Mitch Moses out due to a foot injury. Veteran prop Junior Paulo has recovered from a Lisfranc injury and will captain the team. Hooker Ryley Smith makes his NRL debut off the bench, joining Matt Doorey, Ryan Matterson, and Charlie Guymer. Former Shark Jack Williams also makes his club debut in the back row.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at the AAMI Park, Melbourne holds a 3-2 record. Since 2018, Parramatta have a 1-2 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Storm are 4-1 against the Eels in the last 5.
Best Bet
The Storm are looking to make it 23-0 in Round 1 matches, an incredible record. They get the Eels without Moses and I think Melbourne will be far too strong. They also have an 8-0 record against the Over, so I think they'll be able to score most of these points themselves.
