2025 NRL Finals Week 1 Betting Predictions
The NRL Finals are here! We have 4 cracking matchups to watch this weekend and it all starts on Friday night with the Storm and Bulldogs facing off at AAMI Park.
Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd)
The Storm are sitting 2nd, but on a two-game skid after a 30–14 loss to the Broncos at Lang Park. They’re still a handful at AAMI Park (8–2 across their last 10 there and 9–3 at home this season) and the matchup history is on their side too—Melbourne are 9–1 in their past 10 against the Bulldogs. Form line is 3–2 over the last five, with the attack still humming (3rd for points scored, 2nd for tries) and a solid away split of 8–4 rounding out the profile.
Team news matters: Harry Grant (big in), Jack Howarth, Stefano Utoikamanu and Sualauvi Faalogo come in, while Jahrome Hughes (big out), Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Ryan Papenhuyzen are out. All up, it shapes like a get-right spot at home for a side that usually cashes in on territory and polish.
The Bulldogs head to AAMI Park sitting 3rd at 16–8, but the form line’s a bit patchy at 2–3 and they’re coming off an 18-point loss to the Sharks at Stadium Australia. The splits are solid (9–3 at home, 7–5 away), though AAMI hasn’t been kind recently with a 1–4 mark across their last five there. Still, there’s enough strike to make this interesting if they start clean and finish sets.
Team news gives them a boost with Blake Wilson, Harry Hayes, Jacob Kiraz, Jake Turpin, Kurtis Morrin and Toby Sexton coming in, while Bronson Xerri and Marcelo Montoya are out. If they can tidy up errors and win the middle early, the Dogs are live to cover and worth a look in anytime try-scorer multis.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 8-2 in their last 10 games at AAMI Park. Canterbury are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Storm hold a 9-1 record.
Best Bet
The Under has a nice trend in this matchup, it's 7-1 and also went Under in the recent clash at this venue. The Storm are going to miss Hughes and Papenhuyzen in attack, which limits their scoring ability. Meanwhile, the Dogs haven't been a high scoring side for a while and adding Galvin hasn't fixed it.
NRL Same Game Multi - Storm v Bulldogs
Leg #1 - Storm WIN
Melbourne edged the Dogs 20–14 at this venue a few weeks ago and look stronger for this clash. The Storm have won each of their last 14 home games following a loss, while Canterbury has failed to cover in each of its last six away matches.
Leg #2 - Nick Meaney 6+ Points
Meaney kicked four goals against the Dogs in their last meeting and also crossed for a try last week. With the tee and his support play, he’s a strong chance to clear 6 points.
Leg #3 - Xavier Coates Anytime Tryscorer
Coates has scored in four of his last five games and has an excellent record against Canterbury, with 5 tries in his last 4 outings against them.
Leg #4 (Value) - Eli Katoa Anytime Tryscorer
Katoa scored in the Round 25 clash with the Dogs and crossed again last week against the Broncos. A threat in the air and running hard lines, he’s always in the frame to grab a try.
New Zealand Warriors (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th)
The Warriors head into this one 14–10 and sitting 6th, 7–5 both home and away, but on a two-game slide after that 27–26 gut-punch at Brookvale to the Sea Eagles. Recent form’s 2–3, but their big positive is ball control—they keep the error count low (17th for errors), which they’ll absolutely need against the Panthers, especially with the head-to-head trend a rough 1–9 across the last 10.
Team news gives them a bit of a lift: Bunty Afoa, Edward Kosi, Jackson Ford, Kalani Going and Wayde Egan come in, while Rocco Berry is out. If they complete high and kick smart, the Warriors can make this sticky and give themselves a chance to cover the line—even if the matchup history says they’ll need to be near perfect.
The Panthers come into this final at 13–10 and sitting 7th, fresh off a Round 27 win over the Dragons by 20 (40–20). The splits are interesting—6–6 at home but a tidy 7-1-4 away—so the travel doesn’t bother them much. Recent form is a bit mixed at 2–3, but the matchup history is all Panthers: 9–1 across the last 10 vs the Warriors, and 6–4 in their last 10 at Mount Smart.
Team news is handy too with Brian To’o, Liam Martin, Luke Sommerton and Matt Eisenhuth named in, and Mitch Kenny out. If they control territory and finish sets like last week, Penrith should be right in the box seat again—plenty of reasons to like them head-to-head, with To’o a live anytime try-scorer angle.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 5-5 in their last 10 games at Go Media Stadium. Penrith are 6-4 at this venue since 2010.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers are 9-1 against the Warriors.
Best Bet
This should be another low scoring final. The Panthers have found their defensive edge and will be well rested for this finall too. They have an impressive record in the 1st week of the finals, going 4-0 against the Under. Since losing their halfback, the Warriors attack just hasn't been the same.
NRL Same Game Multi - Warriors v Panthers
Leg #1 - Paul Alamoti Anytime Tryscorer
Paul Alamoti has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances. He grabbed 2 tries last week and also crossed in his last clash with New Zealand.
Leg #2 - Casey McLean Anytime Tryscorer
Casey McLean has been a regular on the scoreboard, scoring in six of his last seven games. That includes one against the Dragons last week and a double the week before against the Raiders.
Leg #3 - Penrith lead at HT
The Panthers have dominated early against the Warriors, winning the first half in each of their last nine meetings.
Leg #4 (Value) - Leka Halasima Anytime Tryscorer
Leka Halasima has scored in four of the Warriors’ last five home matches, including a double in his most recent home outing against the Eels.
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (5th) vs Sydney Roosters (8th)
Cronulla roll into this Roosters clash at 15–9 and sitting 5th, riding a three-game heater after smacking the Bulldogs 24–6 in Round 27. The form line’s strong (4–1 last five) and the home edge is real—10–2 this season at Sharks Stadium and 8–2 across their last 10 there—so even with a shakier away split (5–7) they look comfy on their own deck.
Team news helps too with Braydon Trindall and Briton Nikora back in. All signs point to a Sharks side in control: confident, stingy, and happy to grind the Roosters down through the middle before cashing in out wide.
The Roosters head to Shark Park sitting 8th at 13–11 and trending up—4–1 across their last five, riding a two-game streak, and fresh off a 36–6 thumping of Souths at Allianz. They’ve got points in them (5th for scoring, 4th for tries) and the away split is fine at 7–5, but errors are the headache—one of the league’s worst for cough-ups (3rd most). History’s handy too: 7–3 against Cronulla in the last 10.
Team news adds some depth with Makahesi Makatoa, Salesi Foketi and Sandon Smith named, no outs listed yet. If they keep the ball off the deck and finish sets, the Chooks are live to push the Sharks late and make a game of it.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 8-2 in their last 10 games at Shark Park. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Roosters are 7-3 against the Sharks.
Best Bet
The trend between these two sides has been high scoring affairs and I don't see that slowing down in the finals. In the last 3 meetings, the Over is 3-0 so I'll be backing it to go 4-0.
NRL Same Game Multi - Sharks v Roosters
Leg #1 - Roosters WIN
The Roosters are dangerous with a lot of their key players back in the lineup and I think they get the job done at Shark Park. The Sharks have an awful 0-7 record in the 1st week of finals too.
Leg #2 - Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Tryscorer
Nawaqanitawase has 7 tries in his last 2 games — 3 against the Bunnies and 4 against Melbourne. He also crossed in the Round 12 clash with the Sharks.
Leg #3 - Daniel Tupou Anytime Tryscorer
Tupou has scored at least one try in eight of his last 9 games in Sydney, making him a reliable option again.
Leg #4 (Value) - KL Iro Anytime Tryscorer
Iro has been deadly at Sharks Stadium, scoring in seven of his last eight games there. A solid value pick to keep that trend going.
Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Brisbane Broncos (4th)
Top-of-the-table Raiders (19–5) host the Broncos with serious cred: 11–1 at home, 8–4 away and 3–2 across the last five, plus a 9–1 run in their past 10 at Canberra Stadium. Ignore the 62–24 loss to the Dolphins—they rested most of their starters. The profile screams points: 4th in the NRL for both points and tries.
Team news is big too with a stack of key ins—Ethan Strange, Hudson Young, Jamal Fogarty, Jed Stuart, Joseph Tapine, Josh Papalii, Kaeo Weekes, Matthew Timoko, Simi Sasagi, Tom Starling and Zac Hosking—while Adam Cook, Chevy Stewart, Joe Roddy, Kain Anderson, Manaia Waitere, Michael Asomua and Vena Patuki-Case are out. All signs point to Canberra leaning on their home fortress and attack to set the tone.
The Broncos head to Canberra sitting 4th at 15–9, riding a four-game heater and a 4–1 run across their last five after rolling the Storm 30–14 at Lang Park. They’ve got plenty of punch in attack (2nd for points, 3rd for tries), but handling can let them down—too many errors (4th most).
The venue hasn’t been kind with a 1–4 mark in their last five at Canberra Stadium. The splits read 9–3 at home and 6–6 away, so this is a proper road test against the ladder-leading Raiders. Team news is light but positive with Gehamat Shibasaki named in and no outs listed yet.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 9-1 in their last 10 games at GIO Stadium. Brisbane are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Broncos have won 3 games against the Raiders.
Best Bet
Picking a winner in this one is tough. I think the Raiders have the edge at home but Walsh turns in a blinder, the Broncos will be hard to beat. So with a lot of attacking weapons on either side and in day conditions, I like the Over. It has a perfect 6-0 record when the Raiders host the Broncos in Canberra too.
NRL Same Game Multi - Raiders v Broncos
Leg #1 - Broncos +6.5
Brisbane has covered the line in each of its last four matches and has won four straight overall. With form on their side, the +6.5 looks like a solid play in what should be a close, finals-style clash.
Leg #2 - Reece Walsh 8+ Points
Reece Walsh has been in electric touch, crossing for a try in each of Brisbane’s last four games. Add in his goal-kicking—7 goals last week plus 2 tries (20 points total)—and he’s cleared this mark with ease. Across his last four as kicker, he’s slotted 7, 3, 5 and 7 goals.
Leg #3 - Ethan Strange Anytime Tryscorer
Ethan Strange has been a bright spark for Canberra, scoring in each of his last three games with 5 tries in total. He’s quickly become a reliable anytime scorer threat.
Leg #4 (Value) - Kotoni Staggs Anytime Tryscorer
Kotoni Staggs has found the line in three of Brisbane’s last four matches and also has form against the Raiders, scoring in one of his last two outings against them. He adds strong value to the multi as a strike centre option.
