2024 NRL Round 5 Betting Predictions
The NRL season rolls on with another huge round of action, starting on Thursday with the Storm looking to make it 13 straight at AAMI Park as they face the fired-up Broncos.
Melbourne Storm (5th) vs Brisbane Broncos (12th)
The Storm are keen as mustard to keep their good start to the season rolling after their bye. With Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Christian Welch all back in action, they're heavy favourites for a 13th straight win at AAMI Park. Melbourne's got the wood over the Broncos too, winning a whopping 14 out of their last 15 clashes. However, they would like revenge after a 26-0 defeat in last year's finals.
The Broncos are riding high after a bloody massive win over the Cowboys. After knocking off their Queensland rivals for the first time this season in front of a packed home crowd on Good Friday, morale's through the roof in Brisbane. So they'll be looking to snag back-to-back wins for the first time this season. But they've got a few injury worries with skipper Adam Reynolds nursing a niggle in the knee and Reece Walsh out with a facial fracture. Still, they showed off their depth big time in the last match, with Tristan Sailor tearing it up at fullback. The Broncos haven't got a win at AAMI Park since 2016 so they'll be fired up to overrun it.
Brisbane's been lighting up the scoreboard, with six out of their last seven away matches going over the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 12-0 in their last 12 games at this venue. Brisbane are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Storm are 11-1 against the Broncos since 2018.
Best Bet
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (14th) vs Sydney Roosters (7th)
Even though the Bulldogs copped a loss against the Rabbitohs, they've gotta be feeling pretty good about themselves after their Round 4 performance. They gave the South Sydney big guns a real run for their money on Good Friday. But they paid a hefty price for their gutsy effort, with back-rower Jacob Preston out with a busted jaw for a few weeks, and star flyer Josh Addo-Carr sidelined with a concussion. Now, when it comes to playing at Accor Stadium, the Bulldogs haven't had the best luck lately. They've only managed to snag two wins out of their last eight games there.
The Roosters got off to a sluggish start against the premiers on Thursday and you can bet your bottom dollar they'll be raring to go from the get-go after taking 39 minutes to score in their Round 4 loss. Trent Robinson's crew reckon they've got a real shot against the Bulldogs, who are still finding their feet in 2024. But hey, they better not forget about last year's Round 14 showdown, where it took a Luke Keary field goal to get the win over them. The Roosters have come out on top in nine out of their last 10 games against the Bulldogs.
Canterbury's been keeping it tight, with each of their last four matches going under the total match points line.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Roosters are 6-1 against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Newcastle Knights (15th) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons (13th)
The Knights have been on fire at McDonald Jones Stadium lately, winning seven out of their last eight games there. Against the Warriors, they fell behind early, but they dug deep and defended like champions to keep themselves in the game right till the end. But you know what? They ended up paying the price for not making the most of the scoring chances they had. Now, on top of being 1-3 this season, Newcastle's got a tough ask ahead with just a five-day turnaround and a trip back across the Tasman to face the Dragons.
Meanwhile, the Dragons are riding high after a ripper win in front of a packed home crowd last week and now they're gearing up to take on the Knights in Round 4. They showed some real guts and resilience against the Sea Eagles, holding their red-hot attack to just two tries. Fullback Tyrell Sloan was an absolute machine on the field, causing havoc for the opposition and helping his side secure their second win of the season. The Dragons have a solid record at McDonald Jones Stadium, winning 18 out of 23 trips there.
When it comes to St. George, the underdog has been putting up a fight, covering the line in 11 out of their last 12 matches.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games, Newcastle hold an 8-2 record. St. George are 3-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Knights hold a 3-2 record against the Dragons.
Best Bet
St. George Illawarra Dragons +7.5 = $1.95
South Sydney Rabbitohs (16th) vs New Zealand Warriors (10th)
South Sydney scraped through with a 20-16 win over the Bulldogs on Good Friday, but it wasn't exactly a top-notch performance. That kind of sums up their poor start in 2024. But last season, South Sydney had a cruisy win against the Warriors, extending their winning streak against the Kiwi side to eight games in a row. But with star winger Alex Johnston out with a hammy injury, Izaac Tu'itupou Thompson is getting the nod to start in the backline.
The Warriors are coming off their second win of the season with a gutsy 20-12 victory over the Knights in Auckland. Their defence was solid as a rock, only letting in two tries from kicks. When it comes to playing at Accor Stadium, the Warriors haven't had many chances lately, only playing there twice in the past four years. But hey, they won both of those games against the Bulldogs. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is making his first appearance in 2024 after bouncing back from a hamstring injury. That means Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is moving back to the centres for his 200th game.
In ten out of the last 11 matches between South Sydney and New Zealand, the total match points line has been smashed.
Stadium Record
South Sydney are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. New Zealand are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 9, the Rabbitohs hold an 8-1 record.
Best Bet
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (11th) vs Penrith Panthers (2nd)
The Sea Eagles have hit a rough patch lately with two back-to-back losses, but they're gonna have a crack at bouncing back against the Panthers, who are red-hot at the moment. Against the Dragons in Round 4, there weren't too many flashes of brilliance from Manly's attack like we saw in the first three weeks. Tom Trbojevic made a few uncharacteristic blunders and Luke Brooks struggled to make his mark on the game. You gotta go way back to the 2018 season to find the last time the Sea Eagles managed to beat the Panthers.
The Panthers didn't have much trouble at all last week, even without their star halfback Nathan Cleary. Dylan Edwards stepped up big time, putting in a ripper performance that included a cracking individual try. When it comes to playing at 4 Pines Park, the Panthers have come out on top in just under half of their 22 visits over the years. But lately, it's been a real happy hunting ground for Ivan Cleary's mob, with four wins on the trot. The Panthers have knocked over the Sea Eagles in their last eight showdowns too.
Penrith has been giving Manly a hard time, covering the line in 15 out of their last 19 matches against them.
Stadium Record
Manly are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Penrith are 4-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Panthers are 8-1 against the Sea Eagles.
Best Bet
Dolphins (1st) vs Wests Tigers (6th)
The Dolphins have been smashing it this season and they're sitting right at the top of the NRL ladder after four rounds. They've chalked up wins against the Dragons and Titans and even scored themselves two easy points with a bye in Round 3. Adding the likes of Tom Flegler, Jake Averillo, and Farnworth to the lineup has really beefed up the Dolphins' attack. They've been on fire, racking up a massive 68 points over the last couple of weeks. With all these attacking weapons, they're gonna give the Tigers a real run for their money.
Now, onto the Tigers. They've been on a ripper streak lately. Under the new coach Benji Marshall, they've been playing with a passion we haven't seen in years. They've knocked over the Sharks and the Eels in back-to-back games, giving their loyal fans a real reason to believe in a finals comeback. Last year, the Tigers were leaking points like a rusty tap, averaging 28 points against them per game. But this season, they've tightened up their defence, only letting in 18 points per game in their three matches so far.
The Wests Tigers have struggled on the road, losing nine out of their last 10 away matches, but the Dolphins have been on a roll, covering the line in five out of their last six matches as the favourites.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Since 2018, Wests have a 5-4 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 1-0 against the Dolphins.
Best Bet
North Queensland Cowboys (3rd) vs Gold Coast Titans (17th)
The Cowboys have come out on top in three out of their last four games against the Titans. But last Friday, North Queensland was as flat as a tack against Brisbane after their undefeated start to the season. They barely fired a shot, with only a 61 percent completion rate and some dodgy defence costing them big time at Suncorp Stadium. But I think they bounce back against the Titans leaky defence.
As for the Titans, they're really struggling. They've only managed to get one win out of their last 12 games in Townsville. Last week, they started off like a house on fire, but it wasn't enough to avoid a 16-point loss to the Dolphins. They missed a whopping 39 tackles and let the Dolphins through for seven line breaks. Tough times for the Gold Coast at the moment.
North Queensland has knocked over the Gold Coast in 10 out of their last 11 home matches, while the Gold Coast has struggled to cover the line in seven out of their last eight games.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Since 2018, Gold Coast have a 1-5 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Cowboys hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
North Queensland Cowboys -17.5 = $1.90
Canberra Raiders (8th) vs Parramatta Eels (9th)
The Raiders are gonna be real upset after blowing an 18-point lead against the Sharks and they'll be keen as mustard to bounce back on home turf in Round 5. The Green Machine came out guns blazing, scoring three tries in the first 24 minutes, but then copped five tries in a row and ended up with a second straight loss. However, the Raiders have won three out of their last four games at GIO Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Eels were left kicking themselves after letting one slip away on Easter Monday, but it was a whole different kettle of fish as they went down to the Tigers. Despite having heaps of possession in the first half, they couldn't convert it into points and even though they fell behind after the break, they still had a chance to pinch the win with a penalty goal after the final siren. But Clint Gutherson's kick missed the mark. However, the Eels have come out on top in five of their last seven games against the Raiders and will look to continue their good run.
Tough game to pick but you have to like the Raiders at home with a 3-1 record in their last 4 and there's no Moses for an Eels side that is also playing on a short week.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Parramatta are 2-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 9, the Eels are 5-4 against the Raiders.
Best Bet
