2024 NRL Round 26 Betting Predictions
The top 8 is still not set so Round 26 is a massive weekend for a lot of teams in the NRL. It all starts on Thursday night with the undermanned Storm heading up north to face the rested Cowboys.
North Queensland Cowboys (6th) vs Melbourne Storm (1st)
The Cowboys are back from the bye and get to face an under-strength Storm side, so they're the warm favourites at home. They're last home performance was impressive, smashing the Raiders 42-4 and they've now secured a spot in the finals. So, they'll be keen to move up the ladder and get a home final.
The Storm have locked up the minor premiership and will be giving their starters a rest over the last 2 weeks before the finals. As such, only Munster, Papenhuyzen and Faalogo will back up from last week's thrashing of the Dolphins. Without their stars in the lineup and a pretty poor record against the Cowboys at this, it's hard to see them getting the upset.
The Over is 4-1 in this matchup and there are some decent attacking players in the Storm's lineup.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Melbourne are 1-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Storm have won 3 games against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (5th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (7th)
The Dogs are 5th on the ladder but there is still a chance of making the top 4, so this is a crucial clash on Friday night. They were slow out of the blocks last week but finished off the Warriors 34-18. That made it 5 wins on the trot. Their defence has been impressive, allowing under 20 pts in all 5 wins and that will be the key against the Sea Eagles.
The Sea Eagles were horrible against the Tigers last week, going down 34-26. It puts a dent in their hopes of a top 4 finish but they can still get a home final. So they'll be looking to bounce back with a better showing this Friday. They have won the last 2 against the Dogs so they should be confident.
The Dogs are playing strong defensively and the Under is 5-0 when they're at home.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Sea Eagles are 4-1 against the Bulldogs in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Penrith Panthers (4th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (15th)
The Panthers are on a rare 2-game losing streak but they should be able to get back on track against the struggling Rabbitohs. Last week, the Panthers went down to the Raiders 22-18 in Canberra and previously lost 24-22 at home against the Storm. They're missing Nathan Cleary at halfback so Jarome Luai will need to step up in the halfback role this week.
The Rabbitohs are just playing for pride at this stage, losing their last 5 games. To make matters worse, Cam Murray has been suspended for the rest of the season. With Latrell out as well, it's tough going and this will be another tough night.
I think the Panthers will score most of this total, the Over is also 5-1 in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Penrith are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. South Sydney are 1-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Panthers are 12-3 against the Rabbitohs since 2018.
Best Bet
Parramatta Eels (16th) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons (8th)
The Eels are hoping to avoid the wooden spoon at the moment but have lost their last 3 games. They started well last week up at Suncorp but couldn't hold on in the end, going down 30-24. They have won the last 2 against the Dragons so there's a chance of an upset if things go their way.
The Dragons got outclassed by the Sharks last week in the 38-10 defeat at WIN Stadium. So this is a massive clash with their top 8 hopes on the line. There are 4 sides behind them on the ladder and the Dragons -120 points difference doesn't help. So it's fair to say, this is a must-win game.
Both sides can give up plenty of points so I like the chances of the Over in day conditions.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. St. George are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Eels are 3-2 against the Dragons in the last 5.
Best Bet
Dolphins (10th) vs Brisbane Broncos (9th)
The Dolphins have been terrible over the last 2 weeks and they're in a late-season collapse. They went down to Melbourne for the first time and got smashed 48-6. They are yet to beat the Broncos in 3 attempts but they've all been close/tough contests. They can still make the finals so that should give them confidence.
The Broncos recovered from a slow start to beat the Eels 30-24 last week. After 2 straight wins, Brisbane can still make the top 8 if they win they're last 2 games and the Dragons slip up. They've already beaten the Dolphins 3 times in the NRL and will go into this clash as warm favourites. I think their attack will have too much firepower for the Dolphins leaky defence.
The Dolphins are struggling with giving up points and the Broncos should be able to take advantage. The Over is also 4-0 in the Broncos last 4 games.
Stadium Record
The Dolphins are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Broncos are 3-0 against the Dolphins.
Best Bet
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (3rd) vs New Zealand Warriors (14th)
The Sharks made it 4 straight wins with a crushing 38-10 result over the Dragons. They are still playing for a top 2 finish and a home final. So they'll be looking to rack up the points against a Warriors side that is simply playing for pride. Nicho Hynes could also make a comeback from injury.
The Warriors are on a 4-game losing streak as their disappointing 2024 campaign comes to an end on Saturday night. They have the bye in the last round so this will be their last game. It's fitting that Shaun Johnson will play his last NRL game against the side he also played for.
The Under is 4-1 when the Warriors are playing at night and hopefully, they stand up in Johnson's last game.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. New Zealand are 1-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Sharks hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
Newcastle Knights (11th) vs Gold Coast Titans (13th)
The Knights got the job done against the Rabbitohs last week, winning 36-16. It keeps their hopes of making the finals alive, but it's pretty slim. They need to beat the Titans and hope a few sides above lose their last 2 games. They have their last 6 home games against the Titans so I think that trend will continue.
The Titans are looking to end a 3-game losing streak when they head to Newcastle this week. Their defence has gone back into old habits, conceding 48, 32 and 44 pts in these 3 losses. So that will be their focus against the Knights.
The Titans are leaking points like no tomorrow again and the Over is 4-0 when these two sides meet.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Gold Coast are 0-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Knights hold a 6-4 record against the Titans.
Best Bet
Sydney Roosters (2nd) vs Canberra Raiders (12th)
The Roosters have jumped to 2nd on the ladder after 4 straight wins. So a home final is there for the taking if they win their last 2 games. Last week, they smashed the Titans 48-22 and have now scored 34+ pts in their last 4 games. If the Raiders defence doesn't turn up, the Roosters attack should take advantage.
The Raiders ended a 3-game losing streak with an impressive 22-18 result against the Panthers at home last weekend. They are still a chance of making the top 8, but basically need a miracle. However, if they beat the Roosters, they're a big chance. If they bring the same form as last week, I don't think this will be a blowout.
The Raiders are 7-1 against the Under and hopefully, that trend can continue against the Roosters.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canberra are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Roosters are 7-5 against the Raiders.
Best Bet
