2024 NRL Round 23 Betting Predictions
Thursday night footy in Round 23 starts with the top-of-the-table Storm looking to bounce back after last week's shock loss against the Bunnies.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (15th) vs Melbourne Storm (1st)
The Rabbitohs, sitting three games outside the top eight with five games left, are likely to miss the finals for the second year in a row. Their next challenge is against ladder leaders Melbourne, but there's some good news with halfback Cody Walker returning. The Rabbitohs have also won their last three games at Accor Stadium.
The Storm are looking to bounce back after a surprise loss to the Dragons in Round 22, which cut their lead over second-placed Penrith to just two points, making the race for the minor premiership even tighter. When these two teams met on Anzac Day, the Storm dominated with a 54-20 victory. The Storm have won nine of their last 11 games against the Rabbitohs, adding to their confidence heading into this match.
The Under usually salutes at this venue, it's 5-0 in the last 5.
Stadium Record
South Sydney are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Melbourne are 4-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Storm are 8-3 against the Rabbitohs.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Titans (11th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (4th)
The Titans have won five of their last six matches, making a strong case for the finals with some exciting attacking play and a powerful pack led by David Fifita. After trailing 18-10 at halftime against the Broncos on Saturday, they roared back with seven second-half tries, showing they can compete with anyone on their day. However, the Titans haven't beaten the Sharks at Cbus Super Stadium since 2017.
The Sharks, sitting in fourth with a 12-7 record, are coming off a solid 20-6 win over the Rabbitohs. They'll be hoping playmaker Braydon Trindall recovers from a hamstring injury, especially since Nicho Hynes is still a few weeks away due to an ankle injury. The Sharks have dominated this matchup, winning nine of their last ten games against the Titans.
The Sharkies have an excellent record against the Titans and I think this will be a close one.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Cronulla are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Sharks are 4-1 against the Titans in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks +4.5 = $1.95
Parramatta Eels (16th) vs Penrith Panthers (2nd)
The Eels, who finished 10th last year, are now sitting in 16th place in 2024 with a 5-14 record. However, they did get a boost with a sensational win over the Warriors in Round 22. Despite this, the Eels have lost four of their last five home games and have yet to win back-to-back games this year.
The Panthers are now second on the table, with a fourth consecutive title looking very possible. They beat the Knights 22-14 last week, and fullback Daine Laurie is set to return from injury. Panthers' halfback Nathan Cleary has been in great form, scoring 52 points in his last three games.
I think the Eels give it their best shot and just come up short so they should be able to cover.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. Penrith are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers are 6-4 against the Eels.
Best Bet
Canberra Raiders (10th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (7th)
The Raiders put up a tough fight against the Bulldogs at Belmore on Sunday but ended up one win outside the top eight. A big crowd is expected at GIO Stadium to celebrate club favourite Josh Papali'i's 300th game, and the Raiders will be looking to make it three straight wins at home.
The Sea Eagles, sitting seventh with 27 points, come to Canberra refreshed after a bye. They’re set to welcome back Haumole Olakau'atu from suspension, along with speedsters Jason Saab and Reuben Garrick from head knocks, and hooker Lachlan Croker from concussion symptoms. Sea Eagles fullback Tom Trbojevic has been in great form, scoring six tries in his last four games against the Raiders.
Manly will be fresh from the bye and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Since 2018, Manly have a 2-2 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Sea Eagles have won 3 games against the Raiders.
Best Bet
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles -4.5 = $1.95
North Queensland Cowboys (6th) vs Brisbane Broncos (14th)
The Cowboys are eyeing a possible top-four finish, but they still have challenges ahead. Coach Todd Payten will be looking for improvement after they barely edged out a 12-man Wests Tigers team last week. The Cowboys have conceded 96 points in their last three games against the Broncos.
The Broncos are clinging to the hope of climbing back into the top eight. Their heavy loss to the Titans was made worse by two key injuries: forward Payne Haas with a lisfranc injury and five-eighth Ezra Mam with a syndesmosis injury. The Broncos have conceded 30 points or more seven times in 2024.
Both sides can leak points so I think this will be a high scoring clash and the Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 2-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Broncos are 3-2 against the Cowboys in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
St. George Illawarra Dragons (8th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (5th)
The Dragons pulled off one of the season's biggest upsets by breaking a 25-year drought in Melbourne, beating the Storm. Now, they aim to stop the momentum of the Bulldogs, a top-five team. Back home in Sydney, the Dragons' win has put them back in the top eight, and they’ve won five of their past seven home games.
Last week’s win over the Raiders saw captain Stephen Crichton and winger Josh Addo-Carr both scoring doubles in their comebacks from injury. Addo-Carr has scored eight tries in five games against the Dragons. Bulldogs second-rower Viliame Kikau will celebrate his 150th NRL game in this matchup.
Should be a tough and tight contest, I like the Under and it's 7-1 in the Dogs last 8.
Stadium Record
St. George are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canterbury are 1-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Dragons hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
Dolphins (9th) vs New Zealand Warriors (13th)
The Dolphins slipped out of the top eight for the first time since Round 1 after a 34-40 loss to the Roosters last weekend. They are eager to end a rough patch, having lost five of their last six games. Coach Wayne Bennett, experienced in these situations, will have his team ready for Sunday's clash with the Warriors at Suncorp Stadium. While their attack has been strong, Bennett will focus on tightening up their defense, as the Dolphins have conceded at least 21 points in nine consecutive games.
The Warriors are currently 13th on the ladder, five points behind eighth-placed St George Illawarra, and need a win over the Dolphins to keep their finals hopes alive. They welcomed back veteran halfback Shaun Johnson in last week's loss to the Eels and hope he finds his form in his second game back from an Achilles injury. The Warriors won 24-20 when these teams met earlier in the year and will need a similar performance to secure a victory at Suncorp Stadium. The Warriors have won two of their three games against the Dolphins.
All 3 meetings have gone Under.
Stadium Record
are 4-6 in their last 10 games at this venue. New Zealand are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Warriors are 2-1 against the Dolphins since 2018.
Best Bet
Newcastle Knights (12th) vs Wests Tigers (17th)
The Newcastle Knights are in must-win territory as they fight to keep their top-eight hopes alive against the Wests Tigers on Sunday afternoon. Sitting four points outside the top eight with just five rounds remaining, the Knights need to turn things around. They suffered a tough loss to Penrith last Sunday when Nathan Cleary broke a 14-all tie with 11 minutes left. On a positive note, the Knights have won their last five games against the Tigers.
It's been a rough year for Benji Marshall's side, but they're determined to finish the season strong and gain valuable experience for next year. Adam Doueihi returns to the centres after a two-game break. However, the Wests Tigers have conceded 40 points or more in five of their last six games, highlighting their defensive struggles.
The Tigers are 4-1 against the Over and this should be high scoring to end the round.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Wests are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Knights hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
