2024 NRL Round 17 Betting Predictions
Origin game 2 was a blowout for the NSW Blues so we're heading to a decider at Suncorp in a few weeks. But, let's get back into the NRL action with a Friday night top 8 battle between the Doggies and Sharkies in Sydney.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (6th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (3rd)
The Bulldogs were riding high with three wins against the Dragons, Knights, and Eels, but their momentum took a hit with a 26-8 loss to the Roosters. Despite that, they're still sitting pretty in sixth place and in a good spot to make the finals for the first time since 2016. Their chances are looking up with the return of the hard-charging Bronson Xerri, though star winger Josh Addo-Carr is still out with a hamstring injury. Stephen Crichton is expected to back up after Origin. Plus, the Bulldogs have a strong record at Accor Stadium, winning their last five games there.
The Sharks are coming off a Round 16 bye and are keen to bounce back after losing three of their last four matches, including a close two-point loss to the Dolphins where they stumbled out of the gate. Even with recent setbacks, they're still third on the table and have a four-point lead over the fourth-placed Roosters. The Sharks have had the Bulldogs' number recently, racking up 106 points in their last three encounters.
The Sharks should be rested from the bye and Hynes didn't play Origin. They're also 7-1 ATS after a bye and have won their last 4 against the Dogs by 13+.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Cronulla are 4-4 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Sharks are 8-2 against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
New Zealand Warriors (13th) vs Brisbane Broncos (7th)
The Warriors are in for a real challenge as they try to bounce back from a crushing defeat. After starting the 2024 season as premiership favourites, they've dropped to 13th place following a 66-6 thrashing by the last-placed Titans. Returning to Auckland for Round 17, they'll be eager to regain some pride in front of their loyal fans, who have been turning up in huge numbers all season despite the Warriors winning only two of six games at Go Media Stadium. Unfortunately, they'll be without Shaun Johnson for a month due to an Achilles injury from the Titans game, but they will have Dallin Watene-Zelezniak back from suspension.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are anxiously waiting to see if their Origin stars Reece Walsh, Pat Carrigan, and Payne Haas will be ready to play, given they’ll have just two days to recover before Saturday’s match in Auckland. The Broncos have a decent record against the Warriors, winning three of their last four encounters. However, they’ve conceded 80 points over three consecutive losses, while the Warriors have let in 104 points in their past two games.
Expect the Warriors to show some spirit at home after last week's embarrassing performance but without Johnson, it will be tough for them. Broncos to cover if their Origin stars backup.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 6-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Brisbane are 2-2 at this venue since 2016.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the head to head is squared at 2-2 (1 draw).
Best Bet
Newcastle Knights (12th) vs Parramatta Eels (17th)
The Knights are currently sitting in 12th place after three straight losses, but there were some positives in their 26-18 defeat to Penrith in Round 15. They’re hoping to get their star player Kalyn Ponga back within the next month, but his absence has given young talents David Armstrong and Fletcher Sharpe a chance to shine. However, the Knights haven’t won at home since Round 9 and have lost their last six games against the Eels.
On the other side, the Eels are struggling in 17th place, having won just one of their last eight games. They’re banking on Blues No.7 Mitch Moses to back up after Origin Two and lead the team. With tough matches against the Storm, Panthers, and Roosters ahead, the Eels need to start winning games against teams outside the top eight to gain some momentum. There’s a chance that powerful winger Maika Sivo could return from a hamstring injury, but back-rower J’maine Hopgood is likely to miss out again. The Eels haven’t won any of their six away games in 2024.
Tough game to pick so I like the Under trend. It's 8-3 in this matchup in the last 11 meetings.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Parramatta are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Eels have won 5 games against the Knights.
Best Bet
Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Canberra Raiders (10th)
Ladder leaders Melbourne are gearing up to renew their rivalry with the Raiders. Last Friday night, the Storm had a tough battle against the Dolphins but still managed to pull off a 30-24 win in star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen's return match after five games out with an ankle injury. Hooker Harry Grant and winger Xavier Coates are expected to play after their Origin duties with the Maroons. The Storm have a good track record, winning six of their last eight games against the Raiders.
On the other hand, the Raiders are struggling with confidence after conceding 82 points in back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Wests Tigers. Despite their recent form, the Raiders have a strong history at AAMI Park, winning five of their last six games there. However, the Storm have been letting in at least 24 points in their past four games, so it might be a closer contest than expected.
Always a good battle between these two teams. Melbourne are 6-0 against the Over and the Raiders just got smashed by the Tigers 48-24.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at the AAMI Park, Melbourne hold a 9-1 record. Canberra are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Storm are 3-2 against the Raiders in the last 5.
Best Bet
St. George Illawarra Dragons (9th) vs Dolphins (5th)
The Dragons head into Round 17 fresh from the bye and with a shot at breaking into the top eight for the first time since Round 1. With three full days for their Origin players to recover from Game Two, they’re hoping to have Zac Lomax, Ben Hunt, and Jaydn Su'A back in action. However, they’ve been struggling at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, conceding 122 points in their past four games. On a brighter note, winger Zac Lomax has been on fire, scoring 48 points in his last two home games.
The Dolphins should be eager to get back into the top four after a close loss to the Storm in Round 16. Despite missing star fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, veteran forward Felise Kaufusi, and losing Jack Bostock to an early HIA, they showed great resilience by taking an early lead at Suncorp Stadium before falling 30-24. The Dolphins have been solid on the road, winning five of their seven away games this season. Fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been a standout, scoring nine tries in his past seven games.
The Dolphins are showing improvement on the road, winning 4 of their last 5. So I think they're good odds to get an upset.
Stadium Record
St. George are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Dolphins are yet to play here.
Head to Head Record
The Dolphins are 2-1 against the Dragons.
Best Bet
Penrith Panthers (2nd) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th)
With three full days to recover from Game Two, Panthers coach Ivan Cleary is hoping to have Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, Brian To'o, and Dylan Edwards back after their Origin duties. The Panthers have been dominant at BlueBet Stadium, winning 14 of their last 16 games there. Winger Brian To'o has been particularly impressive, scoring 23 tries in his past 17 games at home.
The Cowboys are looking to build on their strong performance against the Raiders in Round 15 before getting some much-needed rest during their first bye of the season. Despite having six of their stars play in the Wednesday Origin game, coach Todd Payten should feel confident in his squad after they managed to beat the Roosters with a lineup full of rookies and replacements in Round 13. However, the Cowboys haven't won at BlueBet Stadium since 2016, making this a tough challenge for them.
The trend in this matchup is the Over as it has saluted in the last 3 meetings.
Stadium Record
Penrith are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. North Queensland are 0-3 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers hold a 6-4 record.
Best Bet
Sydney Roosters (4th) vs Wests Tigers (16th)
The Roosters are looking to solidify their spot in the NRL top four as they host the Wests Tigers at Allianz Stadium on Sunday night. After a hard-fought 26-8 win over the Bulldogs in Gosford last weekend, the Roosters moved up to fourth place. Halfback Sam Walker shone in the wet conditions and will aim to lead his team to their third straight victory this weekend. The Roosters have a strong track record against the Wests Tigers, winning their last seven encounters.
Despite sitting in 16th place, the Wests Tigers won't be an easy opponent. Benji Marshall's team has found form after the bye, winning back-to-back games, including a stunning 48-24 victory over the Raiders last weekend. Lachlan Galvin impressed in his return from a hand injury, and Adam Doueihi made a major impact in his first NRL game since tearing his ACL last year. The Wests Tigers are looking to secure three consecutive wins for the first time since 2018.
Wests are showing good signs now but I think they'll struggle with the Roosters attack. So I like the chances of a high scoring clash on Sunday night.
Stadium Record
Sydney are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Wests are 0-1 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Roosters are 7-1 against the Tigers.
Best Bet
