2024 NRL Round 11 Betting Predictions
Magic Round is back this weekend and the action kicks off at Suncorp on Friday night with a massive double-header.
Canberra Raiders (7th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (9th)
After a tough win over Manly followed by a bye, Canberra is refreshed and ready to keep their Magic Round streak going. They've beaten the Bulldogs twice (2021 and 2023) and the Sharks (2022) in previous Magic Rounds. The Raiders will get a boost with Corey Horsburgh (groin) and Jordan Rapana (knee) returning for the opening game of the weekend at Suncorp Stadium. The Raiders have also won their last eight games against the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs showed plenty of fight in their game against the Panthers and continue to improve under Stephen Crichton's leadership. With Crichton, Viliame Kikau, Matt Burton, and Reed Mahoney leading the way, they've been competitive in most matches. However, they'll face a tough challenge against Ricky Stuart's solid Raiders team. The Bulldogs have lost all four of their previous Magic Round games.
Canberra as underdogs is interesting considering they've won their last 8 against the Dogs so I like them to cover in the opening game.
Stadium Record
Canberra are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Canterbury are 0-10 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
The Raiders are 8-0 against the Bulldogs since 2018.
Best Bet
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (8th) vs Brisbane Broncos (6th)
Manly is scrambling to cope without star fullback Tom Trbojevic as they head back to Suncorp Stadium for the second week in a row to face the Broncos. Tolu Koula will step in at fullback, and they'll also be missing winger Jason Saab. However, they'll get a big boost with Haumole Olakau'atu returning from a two-week suspension. The Sea Eagles have lost their last four games at Suncorp Stadium.
The Broncos bounced back with a 30-14 win over the Eels on Friday night and are looking to build on that momentum as they return to Brisbane. Manly and the Broncos have faced off in all four Magic Rounds, with Brisbane winning three, including a 32-6 victory last year. Coach Kevin Walters hopes to have Jock Madden back from a pec injury that has sidelined him since Round 8.
Should be a high-scoring affair and the over is 6-0 with the Sea Eagles involved.
Stadium Record
Manly are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. Brisbane are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 6 meetings, the head to head is squared at 3-3.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Titans (16th) vs Newcastle Knights (10th)
The Titans are looking much more dangerous now than they did during their winless first six games. They started strong last Sunday, jumping to a 20-0 lead over the Cowboys, but handling errors and old habits almost cost them the win. Both teams are dealing with key injuries from Round 10, with AJ Brimson, Kieran Foran, and Phillip Sami all sidelined.
The Knights are on a hot streak with three straight wins. They had a strong second-half performance last Saturday in Tamworth, continuing their impressive run despite losing captain Kalyn Ponga. The Knights have won three of their last four games against the Titans and are back at Magic Round after missing last year due to a bye.
Gold Coast are playing better footy at the moment and they're 6-0 ATS.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Newcastle are 5-5 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Titans +6.5 = $1.90
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (1st) vs Sydney Roosters (5th)
The Sharks are on fire with six straight wins, including a big victory over the Storm in Round 10, where they held Melbourne's strong attack to just 18 points. They're only allowing an average of 14 points per game this season. However, they'll be anxious about the fitness of star playmaker Nicho Hynes, who missed the Storm game due to calf tightness. If he can't play, Daniel Atkinson will step in again after doing a solid job last Saturday. The Sharks have had a tough time at Suncorp Stadium, winning only one of their last seven games there.
The Roosters have hit their stride lately, scoring 138 points in their last three wins over the Dragons, Broncos, and Warriors, bringing their season average to 29.6 points per game. When these teams last met, the Roosters knocked Cronulla out of the 2023 finals with a dramatic 13-12 win, thanks to a Sam Walker field goal in the 73rd minute. The Roosters have dominated this matchup, winning eight of their last nine games against the Sharks.
The Over is 5-1 in the Roosters last 6 games so I think the total looks low for these two sides.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Sydney are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Roosters are 4-1 against the Sharks in the last 5 meetings.
Best Bet
South Sydney Rabbitohs (17th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (12th)
The Rabbitohs have only won five of their last 22 games since Round 12 last year and are struggling with a lot of injuries, form issues, and confidence. While winger Alex Johnston might return from a hamstring injury, and Latrell Mitchell is getting back into the swing of things after his comeback against the Dragons, the real problems are in the middle of the field. They're being dominated up front, making them easy targets for a strong Cowboys pack. However, the Rabbitohs have a perfect record at Magic Round, winning all four of their games.
The Cowboys are on a five-game losing streak after falling short against the Titans. It feels like ages since they started 2024 with three straight wins against the Dolphins, Knights, and Dragons, scoring 110 points along the way. If they can find that form again, they’ll have a good shot at beating a Rabbitohs team that's been giving up 35 points per game this season. The Cowboys have also won three of their last four games at Suncorp Stadium.
Both sides leak plenty of points so I like the Over here too. It's 7-1 in the Cowboys last 8 games.
Stadium Record
South Sydney are 4-1 in their last 5 games at this venue. North Queensland are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Rabbitohs are 7-1 against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
New Zealand Warriors (14th) vs Penrith Panthers (2nd)
The Warriors haven't had much luck at Suncorp Stadium, losing their last five games there. They've also lost their last three Magic Round games. To make things tougher, their star playmaker Shaun Johnson is out.
The Panthers, on the other hand, have dominated the Warriors, winning their last eight matchups. Even though Nathan Cleary is sidelined with a Grade 2 hamstring tear, Penrith is still sitting second on the ladder. They've managed three of their seven wins without Cleary and will have to keep it up for the next eight weeks. Jarome Luai will step in at halfback.
Both halfbacks are out so I like the Under, which is 7-1 when these two sides meet.
Stadium Record
Since 2018, New Zealand have a 2-6 record at this venue. Penrith are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Panthers have won 9 games against the Warriors.
Best Bet
Melbourne Storm (3rd) vs Parramatta Eels (13th)
Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy wants his team to bounce back quickly when they head to Brisbane for their Magic Round clash with the Eels. The Storm lost to the Sharks in a top-of-the-table game last Saturday night, but they've had a lot of success at Suncorp Stadium over the years. Plus, Xavier Coates is back from his hamstring injury. The Storm have scored the most points at Magic Round, racking up 126 points in four games.
The Eels have been struggling without their star No.7, Mitch Moses, winning just one game while he's been out. They've only won one of their four Magic Round games. On a brighter note, Eels winger Maika Sivo has scored five tries in three Magic Round games.
The Over is 9-1 when the Storm play in the day and this should be a high-scoring affair.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Parramatta are 5-6 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head to head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
Wests Tigers (15th) vs Dolphins (4th)
The Wests Tigers are struggling with a six-game losing streak and desperately need to turn their efforts into points. They lost to Tamworth on Sunday, with 38 missed tackles and 6 penalties costing them the game. Things are about to get even tougher, as star forward Isaiah Papali'i is out due to a suspension for tripping, joining veteran halfback Aidan Sezer on the sidelines. However, Tigers fans are hoping young talents Lachie Galvin and Jahream Bula can bring some magic at Suncorp on Sunday.
On the other hand, the Dolphins are on fire with four wins in a row and are one of the hottest teams in the NRL right now. They’re feeling confident about making it five when they take on the Wests Tigers to wrap up Magic Round on Sunday. After a solid victory over the Sea Eagles, Wayne Bennett's squad is flying high in the top four. They might be even stronger this weekend with star fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow possibly returning from a hamstring injury for his first game since Round 6.
Under is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 and hopefully their defence comes to play on Sunday.
Stadium Record
Wests are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue. The Dolphins are 6-7 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 1-1.
Best Bet
