2024 NRL Round 1 Betting Predictions
From the glitz and glamour of the Las Vegas strip to the action on the field, get ready for a thrilling start to the season as I chat about NRL Round 1 betting predictions!
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (7th) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (13th)
The Sea Eagles been busy in the off-season, signing new talent and gearing up for a strong start in Las Vegas. They're aiming to repeat the 2023 success of their impressive Round 1 win against the Bulldogs last year and with Tom Trbojevic back in action after his injury, things are looking up. Luke Brooks from the Tigers is joining forces with skipper Daly Cherry-Evans to form a new halves combination. However, the Sea Eagles have only won one out of their past 10 Round 1 games.
South Sydney aims for an early season comeback after last year's setback - missing the finals. Exciting news on the injury front: Cody Walker has fully recovered from his calf injury. Plus, keep an eye out for 28-year-old Jacob Gagai, who is set to make his NRL debut on the wing. However, the team will be without Jack Wighton due to suspension and Campbell Graham due to injury. Nonetheless, South Sydney has a strong track record against Manly, having won their last seven encounters. Keep an eye on Rabbitohs winger Alex Johnston, who has an impressive scoring record of 14 tries in just 15 games against the Sea Eagles.
The season opener should be entertaining in front of the Las Vegas crowd, with a lot of attacking talent on display including Latrell, Turbo, Walker, DCE and Johnson. Also, eight of South Sydney's last nine Round 1 matches have gone over the total match points line. So I like a high-scoring affair here.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play in Las Vegas.
Head to Head Record
The Rabbitohs are 8-1 against the Sea Eagles since 2018.
Best Bet
Sydney Roosters (15th) vs Brisbane Broncos (1st)
Despite an inconsistent season by their standards, the Roosters battled their way into the finals last year. Now, they're focused on making a strong start in 2024. However, they'll be missing key players like suspended forward leader Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and injured recruit Dom Young for their upcoming match. It's worth noting that the Roosters have won five of their last seven games against the Broncos.
Fresh off their Pre-Season Challenge victory, the Broncos are eager to kick off their season with a win against the Roosters. Despite the lingering disappointment of the grand final loss, the young Broncos are determined to redeem themselves in a historic double-header at Allegiant Stadium. With some key players departing, the Broncos are putting their faith in their young talent to step up. Selwyn Cobbo shifts to the centres, Deine Mariner earns a wing spot over veteran Corey Oates and Corey Jensen starts in the front row following Tom Flegler's departure.
In nine of its last 10 matches, Brisbane has successfully covered the line, while Sydney has faced defeat in five out of its last six Round 1 matches. Looking at both sides, the Broncos ability to score points just looks a lot stronger.
Stadium Record
Both sides are yet to play in Las Vegas.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters hold a 6-4 record against the Broncos.
Best Bet
Newcastle Knights (9th) vs Canberra Raiders (2nd)
In a thrilling showdown at McDonald Jones Stadium last season, the Knights dashed Canberra's premiership hopes with a nail-biting 30-28 victory, thanks to Dally M winner Kalyn Ponga's 89th-minute penalty goal. However, the Knights have faced some changes since then, losing key players like Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Kurt Mann and try-scoring sensation Dominic Young. Despite these changes, the Knights have a strong record against the Raiders, winning six of their past eight encounters. Additionally, they boast an impressive streak of six consecutive wins at McDonald Jones Stadium.
Eager to bounce back from last year's final defeat against Newcastle, the Raiders have bid farewell to Jack Wighton during the off-season. With Corey Horsburgh and Sebastian Kris still suspended, coach Ricky Stuart sees their season opener as a chance to trial fresh talent. However, the Raiders face a challenge away from home, having lost their last four away games. Despite this, they've historically performed well in Round 1, securing victories in four of their past five seasons.
In the past eight matches between Newcastle and Canberra, the underdog has successfully covered the line each time. This should be another close contest.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canberra are 1-2 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Knights hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
New Zealand Warriors (16th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (4th)
With high hopes riding on their shoulders, the Warriors are gearing up for the new season. After their impressive run to the preliminary finals last year, Go Media Stadium is set to be the hottest ticket in town for their season opener, likely drawing a packed crowd. In their previous encounters with Cronulla last year, the Warriors emerged victorious in both matches, including a thrilling comeback win in Round 5. As they prepare for their season opener, the Warriors are facing some lineup changes. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is expected to sit out due to a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, Shaun Johnson's return from an ankle injury is anticipated. Despite these challenges, the Warriors hold a strong record at Go Media Stadium, having won their last five games there.
As the Sharks gear up for another season, they're aiming to bounce back from their disappointing finals exit in 2023. Nicho Hynes is expected to take the field despite a quad injury. Co-captain Dale Finucane is set to join a stable forward pack after missing both pre-season matches too. However, history shows that the Sharks have struggled in opening-round games, losing nine out of the past ten seasons.
New Zealand has triumphed in its last six matches at home, while Cronulla has a poor record in Round 1. Warriors to win by a try in front of a packed home crowd.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Since 2018, Cronulla have a 1-0 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Warriors hold a 3-2 record against the Sharks.
Best Bet
New Zealand Warriors -3.5 = $1.80
Melbourne Storm (8th) vs Penrith Panthers (12th)
The Storm's Round 1 dominance dates back to 2001, with coach Craig Bellamy maintaining an unbeaten streak in opening matches throughout his impressive two-decade tenure. After a tight battle against the Eels in Round 1 last year, the Storm face another tough challenge as they host the reigning premiers at AAMI Park. Ryan Papenhuyzen is poised to reclaim his role at fullback in a huge boost for this team. With a settled forward pack featuring Tui Kamikamica, Christian Welch, Trent Loiero, Josh King and Eli Katoa, the Storm are ready to maintain their Round 1 winning streak and kick off the season on a high note.
After a tough loss to Wigan in the World Club Challenge, the Panthers are determined to bounce back and make a strong statement early in the season as they aim to become the first team since St George in the 50s and 60s to win four titles in a row. However, their welcome at AAMI Park is bound to be hostile as they face off against the Storm. It's worth noting that the Panthers have struggled at AAMI Park in the past, winning only one out of their eight games there. In terms of their lineup, winger Sunia Turuva is expected to recover from a knee injury. Star five-eighth Jarome Luai is likely to make his return for the season opener.
It's hard to back against a Bellamy side in Round 1 based on his excellent track record. They'll have a point to prove against the Panthers and have a strong advantage at home too.
Stadium Record
In their last 10 games at AAMI Park, Melbourne holds a 9-1 record. Penrith are 1-0 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers are 6-4 against the Storm.
Best Bet
Parramatta Eels (11th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3rd)
The Eels are on a mission to redeem themselves after a disappointing drop from Grand Finalists to 10th place last season. Despite struggling with the loss of key players, stability is expected to be a major asset for Brad Arthur's side, with minimal changes from 2023 and star trio Clint Gutherson, Mitch Moses and Dylan Brown returning. However, Maika Sivo's three-game suspension will see a reshuffle in the backline, with Bailey Simonsson likely to move to the wing and recruit Morgan Harper to pair up with Will Penisini in the centres. The Eels have had the upper hand in recent clashes with the Bulldogs, winning seven of their past eight games. Additionally, Eels fullback Clint Gutherson has been in fine form against the Bulldogs, scoring nine tries in his last ten matches against them.
The Bulldogs are eager to reap the rewards of their latest recruitment efforts, aiming for a strong start to the season. After a challenging 2023 season that ended in a 15th-place finish, new skipper Stephen Crichton, along with recruits Drew Hutchison, Bronson Xerri and Blake Taaffe, are set to make their club debut. Crichton is expected to lead from the centre position alongside Xerri, with Taaffe taking up the fullback position. Hutchison and Matt Burton are likely to continue their partnership in the halves. The Bulldogs have struggled at CommBank Stadium, winning only two of their last 15 games there. Additionally, their track record for season openers isn't promising, with just one win in the past seven years.
Parramatta's last three Round 1 home matches have all been decided by a margin of 6 points or less, while they have also struggled to cover the line in seven out of their last eight matches.
Stadium Record
Parramatta are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canterbury are 5-11 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Eels are 9-3 against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs +6.5 = $1.90
Gold Coast Titans (6th) vs St. George Illawarra Dragons (14th)
Coach Des Hasler inherits a roster brimming with representative talent, positioning the team for an immediate challenge for a top-eight spot. In terms of player updates, David Fifita's availability is uncertain due to a pre-season pectoral injury, while fullback Jayden Campbell is targeting a return later in the first month of the season. Keano Kini is expected to step up in the No.1 jersey, with Klese Hass and Jacob Alick likely to fill in the back-row positions. Additionally, AJ Brimson needs to be cleared fit after failing a HIA in week two of the Pre-Season Challenge.
Despite not having the same calibre of talent at his disposal, Shane Flanagan has been active in the player market this off-season, bringing in eight recruits for the Dragons. There's an expectation that these signings will help lift the team away from the lower end of the ladder sooner rather than later. On the field, the Dragons have struggled in their recent visits to Cbus Super Stadium, failing to secure a win in their last four outings there. In terms of lineup updates, Kyle Flanagan is set to partner Ben Hunt in the halves.
I think the Titans should improve under Des Hasler and that should start with a strong win at home against an average Dragons side.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 2-3 in their last 5 games at this venue. Since 2018, St. George have a 1-4 record at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Titans hold a 3-2 record against the Dragons.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Titans -5.5 = $1.90
Dolphins (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (10th)
Last year, the Dolphins made a stunning NRL debut with an upset victory over the Roosters at this very venue and coach Wayne Bennett is expected to have his players ready for a repeat performance. Despite posting four wins and four losses at Suncorp in 2023, the Dolphins need to strengthen their home-ground advantage if they want to secure a finals berth this year. Regarding their lineup, the Dolphins face a setback with the loss of Origin forward Tom Gilbert to a ruptured ACL. Ray Stone or Kenny Bromwich are poised to step up in his absence. Halfback Sean O'Sullivan is recovering from an HIA suffered against the Warriors, while Anthony Milford and Isaiya Katoa are competing for a spot in the halves. Former Broncos Herbie Farnworth and Tom Flegler are set to make their Dolphins debut on familiar turf. In derby matches against Queensland opposition last season, the Dolphins won three out of six.
The Cowboys are looking to reclaim their form after reaching the preliminary final in 2022 but slipping to an 11th-place finish last year. They have a strong record at Suncorp Stadium, winning four out of their last five games there. They'll be looking to maintain this momentum as they kick off the new season. Coen Hess's season-ending ACL injury is disappointing but it has opened up opportunities for Thomas Mikaele. Todd Payten also has plenty of back-row options with Kulikefu Finefeiuaki and Jack Gosiewski competing with Jeremiah Nanai and Heilum Luki.
North Queensland has not covered the line in their last four Round 1 matches. Additionally, the Dolphins emerged victorious in their first meeting last season with a score of 32-22.
Stadium Record
In their last 5 games at the Suncorp Stadium, the Dolphins hold a 3-2 record. North Queensland are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The head to head is tied at 1-1.
Best Bet
