2024 NRL Grand Final Betting Predictions
It's the Grand Final everyone wanted as the two best sides in the NRL face off for premiership glory on Sunday night. The Panthers are looking to win their 4th straight title. Meanwhile, the Storm are back in the GF since beating the Panthers in 2020. Let's get into this mouthwatering matchup.
Melbourne Storm Preview
The Melbourne Storm are once again proving their dominance in the NRL, securing a spot in the grand final as minor premiers. This marks their fifth appearance in the decider over the past nine seasons. The Storm head into the final stages of the season with strong form and are poised to make a serious push for another premiership.
Melbourne has been in formidable form throughout the finals, cruising through with convincing victories. They easily dispatched the Cronulla Sharks 37-10 in their first finals match and followed up with a commanding 48-18 win over the Sydney Roosters in the preliminary final. Despite a strong start by the Roosters, which saw Nelson Asofa-Solomona sent to the sin bin after the opening play of the game, the Storm remained composed. The brilliance of halfback Jahrome Hughes and playmaker Cameron Munster allowed Melbourne to gain control and pull away from the Roosters, showcasing their class and resilience in high-pressure situations.
One of the key narratives surrounding the Melbourne Storm in the finals is the exceptional form of their star players. Jahrome Hughes, who will make his 150th NRL appearance in the upcoming grand final, has been a driving force behind Melbourne's success. His impact has been pivotal in the Storm's attack, earning him the prestigious Dally M Medal, solidifying his status as one of the game's elite halfbacks.
Fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen has also been in fine form, adding an extra layer of attacking firepower to the team. Papenhuyzen has an impressive record at Accor Stadium, scoring a try in all four games he has played at the venue. His speed, agility and ability to break through defensive lines make him a constant threat and he will be a key player to watch as Melbourne look to secure another premiership.
While the Storm have avoided significant injuries leading into the Grand Final, they have faced some judiciary issues. The biggest blow came when powerhouse forward Nelson Asofa-Solomona was found guilty of a Grade 3 Careless High Tackle charge. As a result, he has been suspended for five matches, ruling him out of the grand final. Asofa-Solomona’s absence is a major loss for the Storm, given his physicality and presence in the forward pack.
To fill the void, the Storm have called upon Fijian giant Tui Kamikamica to step into the starting lineup. Kamikamica’s size and strength will be crucial in maintaining Melbourne’s forward dominance and he has shown in the past that he can deliver in big matches.
The Storm have been an offensive juggernaut in recent weeks, racking up an incredible 213 points in their last five games. Their ability to score from anywhere on the field, combined with their structured playmaking, makes them one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the NRL. With Hughes and Munster pulling the strings in the halves, and Papenhuyzen adding flair from the back, the Storm have a balanced and potent attack that is difficult for any team to contain.
Melbourne’s ability to dominate both in the forwards and the backs ensure they can adapt to any style of play. Whether it’s through physical dominance up the middle or exploiting weaknesses out wide, the Storm have multiple ways to break down opposition defences.
For Melbourne to come out on top in the Grand Final, they will need to continue the form they’ve shown throughout the finals series. Their key players—Hughes, Munster, and Papenhuyzen—must maintain their high-performance levels, while the forward pack needs to step up in the absence of Asofa-Solomona. Kamikamica’s inclusion provides stability, but the battle in the middle will be crucial to the outcome of the match.
With their experience in big games and their ability to perform under pressure, Melbourne has all the tools necessary to secure yet another NRL premiership. If they can stay disciplined, execute their game plan, and control possession, the Storm will be hard to beat.
Penrith Panthers Preview
The Penrith Panthers are on the verge of making history as they enter the NRL grand final. The defending premiers are aiming to become the first team since the South Sydney Rabbitohs (1967-71) to appear in five consecutive grand finals. This year, the Panthers have the chance to secure their fourth consecutive premiership victory, an achievement that hasn’t been seen in over 58 years. Their dominance over the past half-decade has cemented them as one of the greatest teams in modern NRL history and they now stand just one win away from furthering their legacy.
Much like their grand final opponents, the Melbourne Storm, the Penrith Panthers cruised through the finals with relative ease. Their first-week match saw them overwhelm the Sydney Roosters with a commanding 30-10 victory. By halftime, the Panthers had already built a 24-0 lead, showcasing their ability to start strong and dominate the game from the opening whistle.
In their second match, the Panthers continued their impressive run with a 26-6 win over the Cronulla Sharks at Stadium Australia. Penrith’s defence was impenetrable, allowing them to control the match and cruise into yet another grand final. Their finals run has been marked by an unyielding defence, solid game management, and the ability to capitalise on every opportunity presented to them.
One of the key narratives for the Panthers leading into the Grand Final is the fitness of their star halfback, Nathan Cleary. Cleary gave Panthers fans a scare when he appeared to clutch his shoulder after making a tackle in the dying stages of the match against the Sharks. However, the Panthers' half quickly reassured everyone post-match, stating that he would be fit and ready to play in the grand final.
Cleary’s presence on the field is critical to Penrith’s success. His game management, tactical kicking and leadership have been pivotal in guiding the Panthers to another GF. Cleary’s ability to control the pace of the game and orchestrate the attack makes him the focal point of Penrith’s game plan.
Another key player set to return is back-rower Scott Sorensen, who has missed the past two games due to a hamstring injury. Sorensen’s return would provide the Panthers with additional strength and versatility in the forward pack, giving them a boost in both attack and defence.
Winger Brian To’o is another player to watch, especially given his remarkable record against the Storm. To’o has scored nine tries in 11 games against Melbourne, making him a dangerous threat on the edges. His powerful running game and finishing ability make him one of the most effective wingers in the NRL and he’ll be looking to add to his tally in the grand final.
While Penrith’s attack is formidable, their defence is what truly sets them apart from the competition. The Panthers have built their success on a rock-solid defence that has been nearly impossible to breach. Over their past 11 finals matches, Penrith has conceded an average of just 9.6 points per game.
This defensive resilience was on full display during their finals campaign, where they held the Roosters and Sharks to a combined total of 16 points. Their defensive line speed, discipline and ability to scramble in critical moments have been key to their continued success. If they can maintain this level of defensive intensity in the grand final, they will be incredibly tough to beat.
Penrith’s impressive record at Accor Stadium adds another layer of confidence heading into the final. The Panthers have won 11 of their last 13 games at the venue, establishing it as a fortress for the defending premiers. The familiarity and confidence they have at Accor Stadium could give them a psychological edge.
For Penrith to claim yet another premiership, they will need to stick to the formula that has brought them so much success over the past four years. Their combination of structured, methodical attack led by Cleary, coupled with their brick-wall defence, gives them the tools to overcome any opponent.
Key players like Brian To’o and Nathan Cleary will need to deliver their best performances, while the forward pack, bolstered by the possible return of Scott Sorensen, must dominate the middle of the park. If Penrith can maintain their defensive discipline, control the tempo of the game and capitalise on Melbourne’s weaknesses, they have every chance of securing their fourth consecutive premiership.
Grand Final Best Bet
I think picking a winner in this GF is a very tough bet. Melbourne are the favourite but it's really a flip of the coin in the odds. So I like the chances of a high-scoring Grand Final. The Storm have the attack to trouble the Panthers, especially with Munster back in form. They also come into this matchup with confidence after scoring 24 pts in their last meeting, which was also played in Sydney. In the Storm's last 6 games, the Over is a perfect 6-0 too.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 6-2 in their last 8. Penrith are 6-1 in their last 7.
Head to Head Record
Melbourne won both meetings this season, 8-0 in Round 1 and 24-22 in Penrith in Round 24. The Storm also won the only GF meeting, back in 2020.
Best Bet
NRL Grand Final - Same Game Multi
1st Leg - Over 40.5 pts
2nd Leg - Brian To'o Anytime tryscorer
3rd Leg - Panthers Over 18.5 pts
Best Bet
