2024 NRL Finals Week 1 Betting Predictions
The NRL finals action kicks off this weekend and we have 4 cracking matchups. It all starts in Penrith on Friday night footy as the Panthers take on the Roosters.
Penrith Panthers (2nd) vs Sydney Roosters (3rd)
Having secured a top-two finish and a double chance along with a home final, Ivan Cleary’s Panthers now turn their attention to an even bigger goal: becoming the first team since the legendary Dragons of the 1950s and 60s to win four consecutive premierships. All eyes will be on star playmaker Nathan Cleary, as fans await news on whether he will return from a three-game absence due to a shoulder injury or be rested for another week. His availability could be a pivotal factor in their finals campaign. Since Cleary's injury, the Panthers' attack has seemed somewhat out of sync. However, Jarome Luai, known for his ability to shine in big games, is more than capable of stepping up if needed in Friday’s match. Adding to their confidence, the Panthers have won their last nine encounters against the Roosters, giving them a psychological edge heading into the finals.
The Roosters enter this crucial final with momentum, having won 4 of their last 5 games to close out the season, securing a 3rd-place finish on the ladder. When it comes to big-game players, the Roosters are well-equipped. With the experience of James Tedesco, Joey Manu, Luke Keary, and Angus Crichton, they have the leadership and talent to guide them as they aim for their first win at BlueBet Stadium since 2017. Adding to their strength, wingers Dom Young and Daniel Tupou are back in the lineup, providing more firepower out wide.However, it's worth noting that the Roosters haven't won at BlueBet Stadium since 2018, making this challenge even more significant as they seek to break that streak.
The Under is 4-0 in the Roosters last 4 finals and I think this will be a low scoring grind.
Stadium Record
Penrith are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney are 0-6 at this venue since 2018.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Panthers hold a 9-1 record.
Best Bet
Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (4th)
The Storm secured their sixth minor premiership this season and took the opportunity to rest several key players ahead of the finals. With a full-strength side back on the field last week, they made a statement by thrashing the Broncos 50-12 in Brisbane, showcasing their dominance. A major boost for the team is the expected return of star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen, who is set to come back from a leg injury just in time for the finals. Melbourne's recent record against the Sharks is strong, having won six of their last eight encounters. Additionally, the Storm have a formidable finals record at AAMI Park, winning six of their past eight finals games at the venue, making them a tough opponent on their home turf.
The Sharks are one of only two teams to defeat Melbourne at AAMI Park this season, but they’ll be aiming to snap a six-match losing streak in finals. They closed out the regular season in strong form, winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their latest victory was a dominant 40-20 win over the Sea Eagles, with Nicho Hynes making a successful return from injury to bolster their side. In a milestone moment, prop Toby Rudolf will celebrate his 100th NRL appearance in this crucial matchup. Adding further strength to their forward pack, Oregon Kaufusi returns to the lineup after being rested in last Sunday's impressive win over Manly. The Sharks are hoping to carry their late-season momentum into the finals as they face a tough challenge against the Storm.
The Over has a good record with these two sides at this venue, it's 5-0.
Stadium Record
Melbourne are 8-2 in their last 10 games at this venue. Cronulla are 1-4 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10, the Storm hold a 7-3 record.
Best Bet
North Queensland Cowboys (5th) vs Newcastle Knights (8th)
The Cowboys hold a strong recent record against the Knights, having won their last three encounters. They enter the finals in fine form, winning six of their past seven games while averaging an impressive 31 points per game. In their only meeting this season, the Cowboys narrowly edged out the Knights 21-20 in Round 2, thanks to a clutch field goal by Chad Townsend. As they head into the finals, Jake Clifford has been steering the team with confidence, playing a key role in their late-season surge. Adding to their strength, veteran prop Jordan McLean is set to return after missing the Bulldogs game. The Cowboys also have a formidable finals record in Townsville, winning seven of their eight finals matches played at home, giving them a significant advantage.
The Knights hit their stride in Rounds 25 and 26, securing wins against the Rabbitohs and Titans. They capped off their strong finish with a hard-fought victory over the Dolphins, earning the eighth spot on the ladder. For the knockout clash against the Cowboys in Townsville, the Knights will field the same 17 players who performed well in their recent matches. However, it’s worth noting that the Knights have not won in Townsville since 2015, adding an extra challenge as they face the Cowboys on their home turf.
I also like the Over up north, it's 5-0 in the Knights last 5 finals and the Cowboys can leak points at home.
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Newcastle are 0-5 in their last 5 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Cowboys hold a 4-1 record against the Knights.
Best Bet
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (6th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (7th)
The Bulldogs have not won a finals match since 2015 and head into this year’s finals struggling with recent form. They come off back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Sea Eagles, having conceded 44 and 34 points in those games, respectively. Improving their defense will be crucial as they look to turn their fortunes around. Before these recent setbacks, the Bulldogs had enjoyed a strong run, winning five consecutive matches. This week, the team will benefit from the expected returns of Matt Burton and Bronson Xerri . However, winger Josh Addo-Carr has decided to stand down for this match, adding another layer of challenge for the Bulldogs.
A few weeks ago, the Sea Eagles secured a 34-22 victory over the Bulldogs and will aim to replicate that performance in their upcoming match. Following a 40-20 defeat to the Sharks last week, Manly will be looking to improve their game. A major boost for the Sea Eagles is the anticipated return of Tom Trbojevic from a shoulder injury, which is expected to significantly enhance their attacking options. Historically, the Sea Eagles have been dominant against the Bulldogs, winning 10 of their last 11 encounters.
I think Manly should win this fairly easily. They're 10-1 against the Dogs and just beat them a few weeks ago.
Stadium Record
Canterbury are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly are 3-7 in their last 10 games at this venue.
Head to Head Record
Since 2018, the Sea Eagles are 9-1 against the Bulldogs.
Best Bet
