2023 NRL Round 4 Betting Predictions
Round 4 begins with the Western derby and Grand Final rematch as the desperate Eels host the Panthers on Thursday night footy.
Parramatta Eels (16th) vs Penrith Panthers (5th)
The Eels are now 0-3 after another close loss against the Sea Eagles on Thursday night footy. It doesn't get any easier against the Panthers in the Western derby. They'll want revenge for last year's GF performance. But they'll need to fix their defence after giving up 80 pts in 3 games already. The Panthers are back from the bye and sit 5th on the ladder at 1-1. They should be refreshed after some tough battles against the Broncos and Rabbitohs as well. Their starting lineup is looking settled at the moment and they should be confident against the Eels are winning the last 2 meetings very comfortably. Parra's lacking defence should be a problem against a Panthers side that hasn't really found their attacking mojo just yet. But I think it'll come against the Eels, a team they thrashed in both finals last season. Panthers to cover. Stadium Record Parramatta are 6-4 in their last 10 at Comm Bank but have lost twice at this venue already this season. Penrith are 5-3 at this venue in their history. Head to Head Record The Panthers beat the Eels in the GF last year and hold a 6-2 advantage in the last 8. Best Bet Penrith Panthers -7.5 = $1.90
Melbourne Storm (13th) vs Wests Tigers (17th)
The Storm haven't looked near their best this season as injuries are the main story. They need to sort out their defence after giving up plenty of points to the Dogs and Titans in back-to-back losses. However, the return of Cam Munster is a welcome sight for Bellamy. The Tigers are winless to start the season but displayed some fight in the second half against the Dogs last week in the 26-22 defeat. They'll likely move Doueihi back to fullback and hopefully, that can spark their attack. Wests showed something in the second half last week and can likely take advantage of the Storm's struggling defence. Wests to keep it close for the 80. Stadium Record Melbourne has lost 4 of their last 5 at AAMI Park. Wests have lost 3 of their 5 games at this venue. Head to Head Record The Storm are looking for a 5th straight win over Wests. Best Bet Wests Tigers +11.5 = $1.90
Dolphins (2nd) vs Brisbane Broncos (1st)
The Dolphins are undefeated in what has been an incredible start for the newest team in the NRL. Last week, they put away the Knights in Newcastle 36-20. So they'll be ready for the first rivalry matchup against Brisbane. However, a 4 game suspension for Felise Kaufusi is a blow to their forward pack. The Broncos are flying at the moment after 3 straight wins. They finished strong against the Dragons last week with 4 tries in the last 10 minutes as Walsh / Staggs both grabbed a double. They won't want to lose against Bennett and the Fins so this matchup will be entertaining. Wayne Bennett should have his Dolphins up for this clash against his former side and they're 3-0 ATS this season. Stadium Record The Dolphins won their first game at Suncorp in Round 1. Brisbane are 7-3 in their last 10 at Suncorp. Head to Head Record These two sides are yet to play each other. Best Bet Dolphins +12.5 = $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys (15th) vs Gold Coast Titans (6th)
The Cowboys were poor against the Warriors last week as they went down 26-12 in North QLD. They're missing Drinkwater at fullback but should get a slight boost from playing back-to-back home games when they host the Titans on Saturday. The Titans rallied to beat the Storm 38-34 last week and now sit 6th on the ladder. Khan-Pereira and Schoupp both scored doubles in the victory. They'll be hoping the points continue against North QLD, especially after what the Warriors produced last week against them. It's hard to trust the Cowboys after last week and the Titans come off a confidence-building win over the Storm. Stadium Record North QLD are 8-2 in their last 10 at home. Gold Coast has lost 3 of their last 4 games at this venue. Head to Head Record The Titans are 3-2 in the last 5 meetings. Best Bet Gold Coast Titans +6.5 = $1.90
South Sydney Rabbitohs (10th) vs Manly Sea Eagles (3rd)
The Rabbitohs come off a few bruising encounters against the Panthers and Roosters as they lost both games by 6 or fewer pts. Their forward pack has also been ravaged by injury with 3 out this week. The Sea Eagles overcame a late rally from the Eels to win 34-30 and sit nicely in 3rd on the ladder with 2 wins (1 bye). Tom Trbojevic has enjoyed a nice start to the season after an injury-ravaged 2022 and comes off a double. Despite a poor record at this venue, the Sea Eagles are looking in good form thanks to the return of Tommy Turbo. I like them to potentially cause an upset. Stadium Record Souths are 7-3 in their last 10 at this venue. Manly has lost 9 of their last 10. Head to Head Record South Sydney are looking for a 7th straight win over Manly. Best Bet Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles +4.5 = $1.80
New Zealand Warriors (4th) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (8th)
The Warriors finally broke their 13-game losing streak in Australia with an impressive 26-12 win over the Cowboys. They controlled the possession and run metres, while not conceding a point from the 14th minute onwards. They should be fired up for their first game at Mt Smart this week as well. The Dogs outlasted the Tigers last week to make it back-to-back wins. The Foxx enjoyed an early double and Matt Burton was brilliant for the home side. But they would like to improve on some of their second-half fadeouts in recent weeks. The odds are tight in this one but you have to favour the Warriors when they're at Mt Smart, especially after last week's massive upset. They also thrashed the Dogs 42-18 at this venue last season. Stadium Record New Zealand are 3-3 in their last 6 at Mt Smart. Since 2017, Canterbury are 0-3 at this venue. Head to Head Record The Warriors have won 6 of the last 8 meetings. Best Bet
Newcastle Knights (14th) vs Canberra Raiders (11th)
The injury-ravaged Knights couldn't get past the Dolphins last week and they'll look to improve against the Raiders. However, their record at home recently has been poor and their injury list is concerning. The Raiders got their first win of the season with a much-needed 24-20 result over the Sharks in Canberra. Corey Horsburgh scored a double off the bench in a great performance. But there's still room for improvement after completing just 78% of their sets and losing the run-metre battle. However, they'll get a boost with Josh Papali'i back this week. The Knights are missing plenty of experience and have a woeful 0-6 record at home. Papali'i is a big in for the Green Machine as well. Stadium Record Newcastle has lost 6 straight at home. Canberra holds a 3-1-1 record in their last 5. Head to Head Record Both sides have won 3 games against each other since 2019. Best Bet Canberra Raiders -6.5 = $1.90
St. George Illawarra Dragons (9th) vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (12th)
The Dragons will rue their second half against the Broncos on Saturday night after leading 16-8 at half-time. However, they're back at Kogargh this week where they've won 4 of their last 5 and usually enjoy a close game against the Sharks. The Sharks come off a close loss against the Raiders on Sunday 24-20. But will finally welcome back Nicho Hynes from injury and that will push Trindall to the bench. Hynes is back for the Sharks and that should give them the advantage over the Dragons. Cronulla is also 5-0 against the Dragons. Stadium Record St. George are 5-1 in their last 6 at this venue. Cronulla has won 4 of their last 5 in Kogarah. Head to Head Record The Sharks are 5-0 against the Dragons since 2020. Best Bet Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks -5.5 = $1.90
