2023 NRL Round 21 Betting Predictions
Round 21 begins with a battle to avoid the wooden spoon as the Dragons host the Tigers at WIN Stadium on Thursday night footy.
St. George Illawarra Dragons (16th) vs Wests Tigers (17th)
The Dragons are looking to end a 3-game losing streak when they host the Tigers on Thursday. They showed some fight in their latest game, a 36-26 loss against the Raiders. They'll also be boosted by the return of Hunt, Sloan and Liddle.
The Tigers are also on a losing streak having lost their last 6. They're coming off a 34-18 defeat against the Knights and have now conceded 30+ pts in 3 straight losses. But if they want to avoid the spoon, this is a must-win.
Both sides give up plenty of points so I like the Over, which is also 5-0 in the Dragons last 5.
Stadium Record
St. George are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Wests are 4-2 in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Tigers are 6-3 against the Dragons since 2018.
Best Bet
New Zealand Warriors (5th) vs Canberra Raiders (4th)
The Warriors are back at home in Round 21 after smashing the Sharks at this venue last week 44-12. They've now won their last 2 by massive margins and will be confident against the Raiders. Especially with a top 4 spot on the line.
The Raiders will be fresh from the bye when they head to NZ and looking to extend their winning streak to 4 games. They have been excellent away from Canberra with 6 straight wins but will be massive underdogs in this clash. But with the likes of Papali'i and Horsburgh returning, they should be able to match the Warriors in the forward pack battle.
This should be a close battle between these two sides and the away team is 11-1 ATS in this matchup. Canberra are 6-0 after the bye as well.
Stadium Record
New Zealand are 4-2 at this venue since 2021. Canberra are 2-3 in their last 5.
Head to Head Record
In the last 10 meetings, the head-to-head is squared at 5-5.
Best Bet
South Sydney Rabbitohs (8th) vs Brisbane Broncos (2nd)
South Sydney returns from the bye and will be looking to fend off the teams below them on the ladder with a win over Brisbane. They get plenty of experience back this week and that has been a struggle throughout the Origin period. But with the likes of Cook and Murray in the lineup, they can beat the Broncos.
Brisbane easily accounted for the Bulldogs last week 44-24 and sits 2nd on the ladder. While they're underdogs in this matchup, the likes of Walsh, Haas and Carrigan are back in the lineup. They'll also be keen to avenge the 32-6 loss against Souths earlier this season.
Expecting a defensive grind between these two rivals and the Under is 7-2 in the Broncos last 9 night games.
Stadium Record
Souths are 4-0 in their history. Brisbane are yet to play at this venue.
Head to Head Record
The Rabbitohs are 3-2 against the Broncos in the last 5.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Titans (12th) vs Sydney Roosters (14th)
The Titans have lost their last 3 games but they could have easily won all three as well. Last week, they went down to the Eels 25-24 at Comm Bank. So this is a must-win game against the struggling Roosters.
The Roosters are currently on a 3-game losing streak and will be desperate this week. They're sitting 14th on the ladder so their chances of making the finals are quickly running out.
Both sides will be desperate for the 2 pts with their finals hopes still alive so this should be a close finish on the GC. The Titans last 3 games have been decided by 4 pts and I think they can cover.
Stadium Record
Gold Coast are 5-5 in their last 10 games at this venue. Sydney holds a 5-2 record in their history.
Head to Head Record
The Roosters are 9-0 since 2017.
Best Bet
Gold Coast Titans +3.5 = $1.95
Newcastle Knights (10th) vs Melbourne Storm (3rd)
The Knights have had an easy run lately with easy wins over the Tigers and Bulldogs. But they will face a much tougher challenge against the Storm, a side they haven't beaten in 11 attempts.
The Storm are back in NSW for the 2nd straight week after beating the Roosters at the SCG 30-16. They will run with the same lineup this week and hopefully, Munster's knee issues have improved after he was heavily strapped against the Roosters.
Melbourne loves playing the Knights with 11 straight wins and have covered in 5 of their last 6 at night. The Knights have played some soft opponents lately, which may hurt them in this matchup.
Stadium Record
Newcastle are 3-2 in their last 5 games at this venue. Melbourne are 5-0 since 2016.
Head to Head Record
The Storm are 11-0 against the Knights since 2016.
Best Bet
North Queensland Cowboys (9th) vs Parramatta Eels (7th)
The Cowboys are flying at the moment after 5 straight wins and sit just outside the top 8. With the Eels sitting 7th, this is a big clash for their chances of making the finals and they have been strong at this venue lately with 5 straight wins.
The Eels are also in good form having won their last 6 with Moses and Gutho in the lineup. They come off a huge 1 pt win over the Titans at home. After beating the Cowboys at this venue in the finals last year, they'll be confident of another upset.
Both sides are in excellent attacking form so I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in the North. The Over is also 9-1 in the Eels last 10 away games
Stadium Record
North Queensland are 7-3 in their last 10 games at this venue. Parramatta are 1-0 at this venue.
Head to Head Record
In the last 5 meetings, the Eels have won 4 games against the Cowboys.
Best Bet
Penrith Panthers (1st) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (15th)
The Panthers held off a strong challenge from the Dolphins last week to record their 3rd straight win. The good news is that Nathan Cleary should return against the Dogs from a hamstring injury. But they'll likely take a cautious approach in a game they should easily win.
The Dogs are just 1-4 in their last 5 and face a tough ask in Penrith. With their finals hopes basically over, this could get ugly if they don't turn up defensively.
Not a lot of value in this matchup. However, the Dogs are giving up a lot of points and the Panthers could easily score 46.5 pts themselves. Over is 6-0 in the Dogs last 6 and I like it here.
Stadium Record
Penrith are 9-1 in their last 10 games at this venue. Canterbury has lost 4 of their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Panthers are 6-2 against the Bulldogs since 2018.
Best Bet
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks (6th) vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (11th)
The Sharks will be looking to respond after a 44-12 loss in New Zealand. As a result, they have dropped Moylan and Wade Graham from their lineup. They have performed well against bottom-8 sides so the Sharks should be able to bounce back.
The Sea Eagles are coming off 3 defeats in their last 4 games. Their attack is obviously struggling without Tommy Turbo as they've been held under 10 pts in all of those 3 losses.
Manly likely won't be able to match the Sharks scoring potential so they'll need to focus on a defensive grind. The Under is 4-0 in their last 4 and it should salute here.
Stadium Record
Cronulla are 6-4 in their last 10 games at this venue. Manly has won 3 of their last 5.
Head to Head Record
The Sharks are 4-1 against the Sea Eagles in the last 5.
Best Bet
