NRL Round 9 Preview
Round 8 was full of upsets and certainly tough from a tipping perspective but hopefully we can turn that around with some juicy lines on offer.
South Sydney Rabbitohs ($1.24) v Brisbane Broncos ($4.00)
Thursday 5th May, 7:50PM, Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos caused arguably the upset of the round last week, downing the high flying Cronulla Sharks. Payne Haas continues to go from strength to strength for Brisbane, now having recorded 602 post contact metres to lead the competition, and will look to impose himself on the middle third of the Rabbitohs. After a slow start to the year, South Sydney look to be building some momentum and now sit in 6th spot on the ladder, but can ill afford a slip up against a Broncos side only behind them on for and against. In what should be a cracking match up between Adam Reynolds and his childhood side, I’m going with the much improved Broncos to cover the line.
Recommended Bet: Broncos +12.5 $1.90
Canberra Raiders ($1.85) v Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs ($1.95)
Friday 6th May, 6:00PM, GIO Stadium
If this game wasn’t in Canberra, then it would be conceivable to see the Bulldogs starting favourites, such is the lackluster form of the Raiders. Canberra is now equal-last on the ladder with Ricky Stuart clearly looking for answers, once again making a number of changes including the recall of veteran Jarrod Croker and will be poorer for the loss of 2020 Dally M Medallist Jack Wighton to suspension. Canterbury will be buoyed by their stirring win over the Roosters last round and will look to string back-to-back wins together for the first time in several seasons. The Bulldogs are still struggling in attack with just under 11 points scored per game scored, and the Raiders just over 14, so playing the unders looks a good bet here.
Recommended Bet: Under 38.5 $1.90
Penrith Panthers ($1.23) v Parramatta Eels ($4.15)
Friday 6th May, 8:05PM, BlueBet Stadium
The Western Sydney derby sits in our main event on Friday night, with the Panthers hosting the Eels at what will be a raucous BlueBet Stadium. Not much more can be said about the reigning premiers, who simply look a class above the opposition. Origin winger Brian To’o along with Moses Leota have been named in the reserves after training with the side on Monday, with To’o’s ball in hand dominance only going to improve the side further. The Eels were to almost too bad to be true against the Cowboys in Darwin last round, with coach Brad Arthur making the right call in shifting Dylan Brown back to five eighth. His partnership with Mitch Moses has been impressive all year and I can see the Eels bouncing back to cover the line on Friday, with two of the three fixtures between the sides last year decided by 2 points or less.
Recommended Bet: Eels +13.5 $1.90
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles ($1.18) v Wests Tigers ($4.90)
Saturday 7th May, 3:00PM, 4 Pines Park
The Tigers had their two game win streak ended by the Dragons in a low scoring affair at WIN Stadium last Sunday but certainly have not lost many admirers. They will however come up against a Manly outfit boosted by the return of Tom Trbojevic, Josh Aloiai and Haumole Olakau'atu who had been outstanding on the right edge prior to his suspension. A large part of the Manly game plan this year has been the utlitisation of Daly Cherry-Evans expert kicking game, with the inexperienced Starford To’a sure to have a workout in the back field. I am however enamored with the line on offer for the Tigers and feel the 14.5 points looks great value.
Recommended Bet: Tigers +14.5 $1.90
Sydney Roosters ($1.31) v Gold Coast Titans ($3.45)
Saturday 7th May, 5:30PM, BB Print Stadium Mackay
The Roosters sluggish start to the year has come to ahead with back-to-back losses to the Dragons and then the lowly Bulldogs in round 8. The Titans were competitive against the Panthers last week and the scoreline did not reflect the closeness of the game, with the Mountain Men scoring late in the game. The trouble with the Titans is maintaining strong performances week-to-week and must look to draw away from the fellow teams sitting on two wins. While the Roosters attack is what has failed them in 2022, all bar two of the Titans games have beat the overs line, and on a no doubt fast Mackay track, perhaps the Roosters can straighten up and deliver points for us on Saturday night.
Recommended Bet: Overs 38.5 $1.90
North Queensland Cowboys ($1.15) v Newcastle Knights ($5.40)
Saturday 7th May, 7:35PM, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Cowboys have surprised just about everyone this season and now sit in 3rd spot, highlighted by a 35-4 win over premiership contenders the Eels. The Cowboys’ defence is the second-best in the comp (12.1 points conceded per game) and now they’re starting too pile on a few points with the ball in hand and a lot of credit must be given to Todd Payten. The Knights on the other hand now find themselves in last place on the back of six consecutive losses. The Knights have managed just a pair of penalty goals in heavy losses to the Eels and Storm over the past fortnight, whilst letting in almost 90 points and I can’t see them turning around their form against an in-form Cowboys side in Townsville.
Recommended Bet: Cowboys 13+ $1.64
Melbourne Storm ($1.10) v St George Illawarra Dragons ($10.00)
Sunday 8th May, 2:00PM, AAMI Park
Despite a significant reversal in form, marked by 3 wins, the Dragons sit as the biggest outsiders in round 9, such is the dominance of the Storm in recent weeks. The Storm have completely destroyed their opposition in recent weeks, averaging an NRL lead 36.6 points per game and while fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen leads the Dally M count, you could just about give 3 points to any member of their starting side in recent weeks. After their recent efforts, the Dragons would like to think they can at least be competitive in this one and considering six of the Storm’s eight games this season have gone over the total points line, I think the line and overs double looks great value here.
Recommended Bet: St George +21.5 and over 38.5 $4.00
Cronulla Sharks ($1.20) v New Zealand Warriors ($4.50)
Sunday 8th May, 4:05PM, PointsBet Stadium
Cronulla is coming off a disappointing Round 8 loss to the Bronocs but will benefit from the return of Dale Finucane to lead the pack around. The Warriors could be the most difficult team in the comp to read, and have an even record after a one point victory over the Raiders last round. The Sharks have won eight of their last 10 against the Warriors, however Shaun Johnson was responsible for a majority of those wins. Apart from the loss to the Storm on Anzac Day, the Warriors have been in all the games most of the 80 minutes and I’m backing them to back the line on Sunday afternoon.
Recommended Bet: Warriors +13.5 $1.90
